indirectapproach
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Posts posted by indirectapproach
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The Tories may well be less corrupt because traditionally Tories seek public office after getting rich rather than seeking public office to get rich, like New Labour.
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I would be surprised if the next government give too much grief to their predecessors for fear that their successors do the same to them.
Example, Boris Johnson – Ken Livingstone. Boris hardly seems keen to probe too deeply into any murkiness Ken may have been involved in. I wonder why?
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“You should continue to make the most of it for as long as you can.”
Now, that’s not a joke.
That’s real banker speak that is.
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Let’s all calm down.
This is just a sub-optimal joke. Don’t buy.
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So, we have a nugget of good news from some conveyancer dude.
Well done, congrats, good luck to him.
Weigh that in the balance against the avalanche of bad news we’ve had.
Why don’t we all weigh that in the balance, honestly, fairly and reasonably?
Nugget vs avalanche?
Nugget vs avalanche?
Nugget vs avalanche?
What ya gonna go with?
Prices up vs prices down?
Prices up vs prices down?
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Agreed. The British are slow to stir but when they do, they go for a result. In France the national gesture is the Gallic shrug. In GB it’s the head butt.
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The CAC 40 peaked in summer 2007 at 6168. It’s now at 2775. Is that a down of 55%?
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EF...ource=undefined
OK, Total made profits of 2.9 billion euros last year
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2e186aba-f970-11...?nclick_check=1
Then they announced layoffs, ugly but those profits are the exception not the norm.
All those actionnaires who held their shares in CAC 40 companies have taken a 50% hit on their investments (how many of them were pension funds?) but all the workers who have not been made redundant by CAC 40 companies have not taken a 50% pay cut, yet.
Before all this madness began, French national debt was 67% of GDP
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...os/fr.html#Econ
compared to a British national debt of 47% of GDP
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/th...os/uk.html#Econ
Everyone agrees with decent pay for decent work and I agree with you that the political desire for fair distribution is not there but I have no reason to agree “that the money IS there”.
With so much French business relocating abroad, the CGT and other French labour organizations might spend their time better thinking about how France can maintain the competitive advantage it has left rather than going on strike.
I didn’t write “La France qui Tombe” and I haven’t read it, probably horribly boring but as an expression of “Declinisme” and the end of “Dirigisme”, it’s probably an eloquent title.
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The Brits have been on a 10 year debt fuelled bender. Hopefully, it was fun while it lasted.
The French have woken up with the hangover without even having the party. No wonder they are so upset.
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A spread of 30 – 40% on a share means you have to have a “very” good reason to invest in it. If you do have that “very” good reason I’d make sure it’s out in the market place so that you are not liable to insider trading issues.
A press release to an obscure online notice board perhaps.
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As this crash unfolds we should expect to get contrary data points like this “one”. It’s no big deal. When they begin to cluster they will deserve consideration. Until then, they merit nothing more than being noted.
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Isn’t saying Tunbridge Wells is better than Sevenoaks a bit like saying Corby is better than Scunthorrpe?
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Congratulations, you have numbers you can work with. You have the “peak”.
Research how much prices have fallen from the peak. Do your research and then decide how much prices will fall from the peak. Use those two numbers to identify your offer number.
I’m tempted to say, “Then halve your offer number,” but maybe that’s a bit strong.
Don’t stress about asking prices. With the information available online these days you are as well placed to make an honest valuation of a property as any estate agent, probably better placed.
I’d be interested to hear how you get on.
For what it’s worth I’d guess that by end of 2010 a vendor would accept 178,000 pounds for this house.
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The government is powerless to cure this crash.
Fact based argument to support this suggestion.
If anyone reads the stuff on the Great Depression of the 1930’s they will read that world trade collapsed because tariff barriers were erected first by the Americans with the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act and then by everyone else in retaliation.
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/tag/smoo...ley-tariff-act/
With this crash world trade has collapsed before anyone has even got around to raising tariff barriers.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5be4d2ee-050a-11...?nclick_check=1
So much for the influence of government.
The badness will play itself out whatever the governments do. Government is powerless in the face of this.
Another example: Japan asset bubble and QE and no one needs a link for that.
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Thanks Dandandan. I have a question, if I may.
When you and your girlfriend filled out the application for the joint mortgage, what multiplier of joint income was used?
I think that getting some news from the coal face on this very important point would be helpful.
And good luck.
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The CML predicted 45,000 repossessions in 2008. Their number came in at 40,000. What a relief.
Now the FSA come out with 46,000 repossessions in 2008. OK, so a few hundred less in Q4 than Q3.
Relief?
Didn’t mortgage lending up tick in December 2008? I think the best comment I came across from a talking head on that point was,
“Levels were so low they had to go up.”
Am I right in thinking mortgage lending was lower in Feb 2009 than it was in Dec 2008?
What I would really like to see, is a bull present a meaningful fact/data based argument about why the market may soon head north.
A few hundred less repos in Q4 than Q3 according to the FSA (are they still credible?) does not seem like meaningful fact/data to me.
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I do not wish to sound like an alarmist. All I’m doing is looking at the data.
Remember the 1980’s, only 20 years ago. 3 million unemployed, shops in high streets boarded up, Coventry a ghost town according to the Specials.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhc7rVF3e_4
Interestingly we get a shot of the bank of England in that video.
Wind on to 2011. A house in Clapham, SW London, built for a middle ranking bank clerk 120 years ago sells for 400,000 pounds.
Madness? I don’t think so.
What I have more trouble getting my head around is that house sold for a million pounds in summer 2007.
That’s what I call madness.
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No one knows when this market will bottom or where.
But it seems reasonable to expect it to be around about where it undershoots trend by as much as it overshot trend. Looking at the numbers available to me again I make that 60% below peak. Originally I came up with 48% below peak but numbers are not my strength and it doesn’t much matter at the moment whether it’s 48 or 60. I’m sure I’ll get that simple calculation correct before we get there.
What counts is the suggestion that we will undershoot by as much as we overshot and try to attack that suggestion from every angle I can think of it, as I do, it still seems pretty reasonable to me.
Especially if that means the Nationwide average house price index will get down to about 100K, which is about 3 x average salary, which it does.
If we continue our current rate of decline we’ll get there around the end of 2010. Perhaps we should expect an increase in the speed of decline about now just as we should expect a slow down toward the end of 2010.
The 90% discounts will be around on the flat sandy bottom of 2011 and will not be included in any median figures that we get for the statistical analysis of this crash.
When we get to that sandy bottom, it will be so long and so flat that even the last person to realize the boat has come in will have plenty of time to jump aboard before it leaves again, if they want to.
http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-av...house-price.php
What worries me about this analysis and it begins to worry me more and more is:
Could it be too optimistic?
Could the pressures in the market which drove it so high and which we see beginning to unwind now, be so extreme that we undershoot by more than we have overshot?
Time will tell.
Keep those Krugerrands safe, you may be able to do a lot with them in 2014.
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What is a derisory offer? 50% off peak for a cash buyer is very hard core but I would not call it derisory.
“This is my offer do you want it or not?”
Nervous, defensive laughter.
“Fine, thank you for your time, goodbye.”
The only people who are selling at the moment are those who find a “mug punter” or those that have to. The only people who are buying are those that have to or those that can engineer a hard core deal.
Ace100, stick around, it’s good to have someone willing to take on the bear group think.
At some point the fundamentals will force a reconnect between vendors and purchasers, then we will have a return to volumes that can justify the word “market”.
Talk does not move markets. Fundamentals move markets.
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When the estate agent hits you with his, “There is a lot of pent up demand”, line, how about you reply, “There is a lot of pent up supply.”
Just a suggestion.
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Let’s get trendy.
How about we forget about government and the media? Neither can channel the flow of economic fundamentals. If they could we would not be in this mess to begin with. How about we consider the bottom is likely to be about as far below the trend as the peak was above it?
That would keep us on the "trend" and in this world of fibbing the trend may be the most honest thing we have, the fairest reflection of the fundamentals.
If we look at the Nationwide graph on the front page of this website, which I understand to be a fairly authoritative source, please correct me if I’m wrong and we do the numbers, we can anticipate average house prices to bottom at around the 100,000 pounds mark, which I make a 48% fall from peak.
The graph also suggests the bottom is likely to be fairly flat and quite lengthy.
Some micro markets will fall more, some less. Japan would suggest these variables are likely to be quite large. Tokyo residential prices fell 90% in their crash but nationally the figure was 48%. Allowing for the strong down drag of having a large part of the Japanese market fall so terribly (Tokyo, 90%) falls elsewhere in Japan may have been less than 40%.
If prices continue to fall at the rate they did between peak and Oct 08, which feels balanced to me, we should strike the bottom at the end of 2010/beginning 2011. That would give us 3 and a half years down, which seems a bit speedy since we’ve had 11 years up but maybe that’s a justified conclusion because things seem pretty extreme.
So forget about the government and forget about the media. The Nationwide Index will get to 100 at the end of 2010 and then stay there for a long time.
Interestingly, an average price of about 100,000 would be something like 3 times average pay.
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What? A professional in the real estate business saying something untrue, on purpose, while they knew it was untrue?!
Not in Great Britain! Surely not!
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If they were decent geysers they wouldn’t do all that razzmatazz. An auction off should have some proper respect for all the unfortunate people who have lost their homes, dreams and hopes.
They razzmatazz to pack the hall full of second wave suckers who are gonna bid more than they should because these second wave suckers prefer razzmatazz to hard, cold, boring research.
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Auctions are not what they used to be. Take Brigstock Road CR7. In the last Barnard Marcus auction a ground/lower ground floor 2 bed flat went to hammer 122,000 pounds.
http://www.barnardmarcusauctions.co.uk/Auction-Results.html
See Lot 2, no less.
Rightmove has a flat with 2 beds at private treaty for 77K in the same road. I have spoken with the agents who said on the phone it is not a typo, it is a two bed flat. I wonder how long the lease is for.
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...6x%3D74%26y%3D7
There was another flat on RM, 77 K, 2 beds, same road last week, seems to have gone now but the agent told me on the phone there was more than 90 years on the lease.
Hhmmmm, 122 vs asking price 77?
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Chances are you will get a better buy at private treaty than with these charlatans.
Well If You Had A House Would You Sell In This Market?
in House prices and the economy
Posted
Sell now with a view to buying back in a couple of years at a 40% discount.