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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by indirectapproach

  1. "Worth remembering that rents in London will fall a lot inJan when the Housing Benefit 30% rules get applied to existing tenants, and then fall off a cliff when the benefits cap comes in."

    Well lets hope so because they are too high at the moment.

  2. Unless I'm very much mistaken that facility on google maps was discontinued.

    I've just tried to follow your instructions but when I hit the "more" option I get bicycling and wikipedia and stuff but the real estate option that used to be there has disappeared.

    Google real estate listings were also hopelessly inaccurate.

    Ah yes, here we are,


    Have they restarted it?

  3. "Do you use price/rent ratio?"

    I expect 40% of my gross rent to go on federal and state taxes, management, maintenance, insurance and sundry costs.

    I hope what's left will give me a net return of a smidge more than 10% of my acquisition and refurb cost.

    As I understand it, the rule of thumb for the ol' timers in the business in the States was for a gross return of 12%.

    Things may be closer to an historical norm than you might think.

    I believe the traditional number for the grown ups in the UK was 7%.

    All of which was obviously out the window in the irrational up phase of the cycle, which was all about capital gain.

    Something that with hindsight comes as absolutely no surprise to my dog.

  4. It seems to be possible. Most things in business are in the US, including losing your shirt.

    My suggestion would be to try and find a property manager that is too boring to thieve.

    Of course you may have to talk to lots of funky, uber positive, interesting folk to get to who you are looking for but it's possible.

    The fee for me is 9% plus half the first months rent for the finding and managing plus an unquantifiable cost in longer voids and lower rents achieved because I'm working with someone boring.

    But at least I am not being stolen from (I think).

  5. That would sound very possible.

    For what it's there are certainly falls from $150,000 to $50,000 in the heartland.

    I don't expect prices to fall much further than that, maybe another $10,000 for the outliers but what I do expect is for a lot more decent houses to sell for that price.

    Those $50,000 deals for a decent four bedroom detached bungalow are there now, but they are rare.

    I expect them to become common place and as those deals weren't there last year, I may be right about that.

  6. US housing is on its derriere for at least another two years, probably more.

    The Alt-A and option Arm stuff is not yet half way through. Some 2011 respite was in all the graphs I've seen.

    There was also the first time homebuyer tax credit or something.

    The shadow inventory is huge. The overhang from the robo signing is still there.

    I am seeing the most persuasive price falls yet in my areas of interest and my realtors tell me there is more on the way.

    Any light ahead is an onrushing train.

    Dawn is years away.

  7. "They'll be fine because the krauts have not got any nukes. NATO includes both Germany and Portugal, but also of course non EU nations."

    I'm not sure that being told what to do with the money for the benefit of the jermans is quite within my definition of fine.

    It's looking increasingly like economics is politics by other means as far as the hun is concerned.


    You shouldn't be.

  8. In the settling of scores that the proletariat inflicted on the bourgeoisie in the aftermath of WWII, there was an artificial narrowing of the gap between the rich and the poor.

    And quite right too.

    That gap is returning to more normal historic levels.

    I think it's to be expected and lets face it, the poor have all had the vote since 1918/1928 (men/women), so I suppose that despite the bleating its what they want.

    And why shouldn't they?

    They're all a lot richer now than they were in 1928.

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