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indirectapproach

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Everything posted by indirectapproach

  1. Looks like "this" downgrade is already priced in. Indeed, the downgrade may be a function of price movement rather than a driver of it. And Frenchie's being rather terse about it at the moment. http://www.france24.com/en/20110914-moodys-ratings-agency-downgrades-french-banks-societe-generale-credit-agricole-greek-debt
  2. I don't see that. It seems pretty clear the US has seen off the Russians, Japan and Europe. India's competitive advantage, poverty, is not a foundation built on rock. China .... ? Whatever. When their factory workers are getting more than 80 cents (US) the day perhaps we'll be able to make some assessment. A focus on "yield curves" does not, with the greatest of respect, give us good answers. There are demographic, historic, philosophical, geographical and collective wisdom dynamics at play too.
  3. There is a bit more to the US than some guy called "Jim" and his pie. And the US can deal with its debt by printing and devaluing. Whether it does so in a functional or otherwise manner , it stays in the game. No one has the cohesive critical mass of the US.
  4. If Mexico was about three times or more bigger than the US and Speedy and Yanky were in a currency union, the dollar would be in about as much mess as the euro.
  5. Of all the car crashes around, the dollar looks least bad to me.
  6. "No one likes to face people and tell them the truth, that there isn't enough money, so they kick the can. They hope the cash runs out after they gave gone." That is why the sins of the fathers are visited upon the children,
  7. There is less connect between DAX and FTSE than there might be because a lot more of Jerman industry is capitalised by their banks than their markets. Or so I have always been told.
  8. "There is no such thing as a dumb question." Errr ..... what?
  9. Probably not. More probably, we are returning to the old normal.
  10. Not quite. Any Union fabricated on these foundations would break up too. The choice is a bit more between break up sooner or have some union or whatever and break that up a bit later.
  11. And so would the Scots if they had been spending their own money. I mean come on, we're only talking about building a blinking tramway here. Everyone does it. It's not difficult. It's just trams. WE all had them back in the 1920's. But because the Scots are spending English money, they're not paying attention, they are being fly and it all ends up being wasted.
  12. It's just our Scottish buddies bespattering the wall with someone else's money as usual. They are so keen on this chimera of the "canny" Scot because nothing could be further from the truth. I was in Dundee ten days ago. They are building a great big new swimming pool near the north end of their bridge with a nice big window in it's nice big north wall. That'll give the bathers plenty of uplifting sunlight in that sun drenched ... Now I might be wrong about this because I didn't pay too close attention but then I might be right. What makes me chuckle is how much of a hash they are gonna make of their next Forth crossing. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/8729317/Scotland-to-become-third-world-economy-by-2030.html
  13. Obtaining a carte vital in France really isn't that difficult. Ok, it helps to speak the language or know someone who does. You also have to deal with French bureaucracy which requires you to conduct yourself like a grown up, be courteous and be firm, hardly a big ask. A French buddy of mine told me that these days things are about the same as Bangalore. If a bureaucrat smells fear, French or otherwise, there is always a problem. That said sign up as a grenouille auto entrepreneur, a language teacher with the liberal professions lot or whatever. Allow six months for fiddling about and it's fine.
  14. So, if you can't afford a reasonable gaff for your family on a prob equiv of 150k, that 150 k might be prob equiv to a real what ...? .... 40k? I don't mean to be nasty but that's a reasonable point, no?
  15. The concept may be arguable but the quote is limp if the translation is accurate because there is a glitch/grate between the conditional and the certain, which is very unsatisfactory.
  16. Fritz and all the fritz lovers always end up farked in the end. It's historical.
  17. Well at least you enjoyed the tale judging by the relish with which you recount it.
  18. The Fench use the language thing as an excuse to denigrate the Brits. It's not as if the French used to learn arabic before they went on holiday to Tunis or spanish before Spain. The French are not anti Brit per se but rather pretty much anti everything including themselves, which is why they have a suicide rate that is considerably higher than the Norwegians, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_rate
  19. And if despite that the price of a modest house still remains way beyond the "traditional" 3 x average wage, despite this awful economic mess, it might seem like the fundamental of good quality housing being an expensive luxury, tightens its grip yet more.
  20. I think there is a lack of clarity about UK home ownership rates. Google tells me that in "In 1953, the proportion of owner-occupiers in England was 32 per cent. In 1961 this was 43%." In 1981 it was c.58%. "Homeownership rates peaked at just over 70% in 2000 ...... they have now fallen to 68%." http://www.mortgageguideuk.co.uk/blog/uk-housing-market/home-ownership-rates-uk/ This compares with a rate of c. 42% for Jermany, 49% for the Netherlands, 78% in Italy and Spain, c.80% in Ireland and 84% in Palestine (?), http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate Some of the numbers are old but they generally predate the peak so they may well be about right. From them I get that if UK housing was affordable in the post Thatcher council house give away period that was anomalous in the post war UK housing market. Chances are the only really good times to buy have been in the crashes after the Maudling dash for growth and the Barber and Lawson booms. Just now, good quality housing is an expensive luxury, which I suppose, is what it normally is.
  21. They're all gonna but themselves a nice place from those nice people in the sun. Makes more sense than handing it over to that nice friendly bank manager who lent it to the people in the sun that won't pay it back
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