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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by indirectapproach

  1. If you buy and are willing to hold through the down phase of the cycle that we are probably entering, eventually and it will probably be a long long time, the up phase will return and your asset will go up in price probably to more than you paid for it.

    If you stay in cash the value of your cash is likely to be irrevocably eroded by the coming inflation.

    Now, this is an observation not a suggestion.

    I am not suggesting anyone should buy.

    But it is part of the reason why I am not planning to STR at this time.

  2. "Out of idle curiosity, are you saying that its depiction of 'urban alienation' is inaccurate? Which bits?"

    The reality of the Paris banlieu is worse than that cinematographic depiction.

    The director was close on the ennui, which I think would have been a better title for it but he missed on the squalor and hardcore deprivation by a mile, probably for fear of getting grime under his finger nails.

    And that's hardly surprising as he's only made five films in the 16 years since the release of La Haine.

    Hardly the record of some intense and serious observer of the sharp edges of the human condition.

  3. Unlike La Haine, which has some merit but is overrated, NTM's 1992 Nique la police is just a limp derivation of NWA's 1988/9


    Another example of France failing to live up to its cultural tradition.

    Another example of French hypocrisy in that the French frequently criticise American culture while aping it slavishly.

    MC Solaar has made a fine contribution to rap and has some breadth to his cultural references and some insight as we can see here,


    but NTM ?

    Come on, get a life ...

  4. First the banks lent to a load of property spivs on such an appalling scale and in such an appalling way - it was a big problem.

    Then they lent more to governments than the governments could repay - hence the sovereign problem.

    But if the sov's don't repay enough to keep the plates spinning the banks crash so back to the bank problem.

    And if the sov's don't spend less they'll never repay.

    All of this could have been managed, maybe, if three/four years ago someone did something about the fundamentals of the garbage that has caused this.

    Badly regulated banks and craven government.

    But no one, least of all the electorate has.

    So unless you're sufficiently dug in with hard assets and they are very hard to identify, you're stuffed or I should say, we're stuffed.

  5. My google tells me inflation in China was > 6 % in august 2011.

    More than 8 % in India in July 2011.

    UK inflation is 4.5% but the interest rate is 0.5%.

    With inflation at 4.5% I would expect the interest rate to be in the 3.5% - 4.5% range, not 0.5%.

    Until I saw the Chindia inflation rates I wasn't persuaded of the inflation scenario.

    I am now.

    There is too much money chasing too few goods in Chindia and the West is on a print fest and no one is doing enough/anything to deal with the structural problems that caused all this.

    That means the euro is toast and we are set fair for severe inflation.

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