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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by indirectapproach

  1. Inflation in the US is what ....? 3.7%? And headed in what direction? mene mene tekel upharsin
  2. Everyone relax. After Libya the French are gonna bomb Iran and that will solve it all .... http://rt.com/news/military-strike-iran-france-567/
  3. "The Euro is simply overvalued for every Eurozone country I can think of. " Well, how about you spare a thought for Jermany?
  4. I reckon the 400,000 French who have moved to London would reckon it's a good idea. http://www.economist.com/node/18229536
  5. If they'll let you borrow. I tried to borrow a pile (small) of euros about a year ago. Credit Agricole told me to get lost.
  6. If you buy and are willing to hold through the down phase of the cycle that we are probably entering, eventually and it will probably be a long long time, the up phase will return and your asset will go up in price probably to more than you paid for it. If you stay in cash the value of your cash is likely to be irrevocably eroded by the coming inflation. Now, this is an observation not a suggestion. I am not suggesting anyone should buy. But it is part of the reason why I am not planning to STR at this time.
  7. "Out of idle curiosity, are you saying that its depiction of 'urban alienation' is inaccurate? Which bits?" The reality of the Paris banlieu is worse than that cinematographic depiction. The director was close on the ennui, which I think would have been a better title for it but he missed on the squalor and hardcore deprivation by a mile, probably for fear of getting grime under his finger nails. And that's hardly surprising as he's only made five films in the 16 years since the release of La Haine. Hardly the record of some intense and serious observer of the sharp edges of the human condition.
  8. Unlike La Haine, which has some merit but is overrated, NTM's 1992 Nique la police is just a limp derivation of NWA's 1988/9 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfMXROZ9qvo&feature=fvwrel Another example of France failing to live up to its cultural tradition. Another example of French hypocrisy in that the French frequently criticise American culture while aping it slavishly. MC Solaar has made a fine contribution to rap and has some breadth to his cultural references and some insight as we can see here, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMOeePXGeIc but NTM ? Come on, get a life ...
  9. First the banks lent to a load of property spivs on such an appalling scale and in such an appalling way - it was a big problem. Then they lent more to governments than the governments could repay - hence the sovereign problem. But if the sov's don't repay enough to keep the plates spinning the banks crash so back to the bank problem. And if the sov's don't spend less they'll never repay. All of this could have been managed, maybe, if three/four years ago someone did something about the fundamentals of the garbage that has caused this. Badly regulated banks and craven government. But no one, least of all the electorate has. So unless you're sufficiently dug in with hard assets and they are very hard to identify, you're stuffed or I should say, we're stuffed.
  10. My google tells me inflation in China was > 6 % in august 2011. More than 8 % in India in July 2011. UK inflation is 4.5% but the interest rate is 0.5%. With inflation at 4.5% I would expect the interest rate to be in the 3.5% - 4.5% range, not 0.5%. Until I saw the Chindia inflation rates I wasn't persuaded of the inflation scenario. I am now. There is too much money chasing too few goods in Chindia and the West is on a print fest and no one is doing enough/anything to deal with the structural problems that caused all this. That means the euro is toast and we are set fair for severe inflation.
  11. A most derivative scene I would have thought. Kassovitz dining off the crumbs that fall from Scorsese's table. La Haine is horribly overrated. A terribly bourgeois take on urban alienation.
  12. This guy is usually right about his stuff, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnRxpnqTQcA
  13. How about people with money don't know what to do with it? Aren't most of the S & P 500 components sitting on mountains of cash? eg, Apple of course, http://www.thestreet.com/story/11104168/fast-money-recap-apples-cash-mountain.html
  14. A few years ago I looked hard for some credible research on yields .... couldn't find any. I suspect this is because historically, the institutional players focus on equities and bonds, perhaps because property was historically over regulated and illiquid. I suspect there are a few phd theses out there just crying to be done.
  15. If Greece was gonna default the sensible place for Papawotsit would be on that plane. Yet another example of clueless leadership.
  16. "One for you...a camera never lies." That was a sneaky dig.
  17. Gordo deserves no credit for keeping us out of the euro. He did so for purely selfish reasons, to retain his relevance and power as Chancellor. He never said the interest rate suited to Britain is inherently different to that suited for France, Jermany or Greece. Gordo is a creep.
  18. Because the markets won't lend the central banks are. At some point the parliaments or whatever the legislatures in the different countries are called will put a stop to this because the democratic will, the collective wisdom knows this is folly. The band's still playing but the boat's going down.
  19. If that country is in the euro, the international money markets may stop lending to the other countries in the euro and then all the atm's in the euro zone stop working, including ze jerman ones. Maybe.
  20. Yeah but no but yeah, Fill yer boots! It's a steal!
  21. So it's all a bit mixed then, as usual. Among my land lord buddies some are looking to buy and some are staying put but no one is selling. With rents being crazy high like they are now, why would you? But I still think buying in the UK at this time could well turn out to be a mistake. It's a risk I would not take unless I had to.
  22. I really don't see what the big deal about this Jim guy is. So he sold his gaff in the States in 2007 - nice one. Then he's all, "China, China, China". So he moves to Singapore ..... ? That's like saying, "in 1905 all the action is gonna be in New York," and then moving to Toronto or the Cayman Islands. Interesting maybe, persuasive .... no.
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