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Everything posted by indirectapproach

  1. Michael Lewis really is very good. I'm looking forward to getting around to his, "The Big Short," some time soon. If anyone can't be bothered with the whole article, like me, it says Irish banks made loads and loads and loads of really, really bad, bad, very bad loans, so Ireland's all mess up going forward or something. The last paragraph is about someone throwing eggs or something.
  2. "The rest of the World will simply stop buying UST." A far more likely event than default. Although, a "failed bond sale" might be a more precise way to describe it. Some Americans will bitch about raising ceilings, printing more money or doing whatever it is they have to and so there could be a missed payment or two caused by some institutional log jam but the Americans don't have the talent to default when they can print. I think the interesting event to look for is the downgrading of Treasuries from AAA gazillion or whatever they are now. This will come first, is certainly possible and it's arguable it should have occurred already. Incidentally, anyone following this earnings season? It seems to be going rather well, like the last one.
  3. " how about the horse and cart and lorries? I ..." Did my best once , just above. But I can not make hide nor hair a second time. Be happy.
  4. Oh just gazillions dude, http://www.google.fr/search?hl=fr&client=safari&rls=en&&sa=X&ei=kctFTZzNOsai8QO1yMyuCQ&ved=0CCEQvwUoAQ&q=wholesale+candle+makers&spell=1 Far more than ever before Edison or whoever it was. There is a new supply paradigm, get with it.
  5. So in conclusion, the BDX is southbound because of excess supply? In support of the deflation thesis? Maybe?
  6. "I can't agree with the bit about the Irish doing everything right." Don't be harsh the Irish. It's too easy.
  7. My understanding of how things have gone is something like this. The Greeks did everything wrong and needed a bail out. This was forthcoming on the back of Greek promises to start doing things right. These have not been honoured and the Austrians are ceasing to contribute to the Greek bail out. The Irish did everything right but needed a bail out. This was forthcoming but the next Irish government may reject this bailout as its too onerous or Ireland may just be unable to meet its terms because so many of the productive Irish are leaving. So the Irish just started printing euros, which according to their inflation rate (5%?) the Greeks are probably doing too. And didn't the Spanish start printing euros as well? Meanwhile the Jermans have said they are not gonna pay any more money for bail outs and nor will the Brits, not that the Brits are so relevant here. And things in Belgium, no government since about Noah, Italy, bunga bunga government since wotsit Borgia and Portugal are not exactly getting better. As Jerman nik naks are flying out the door faster than you can say, 'Vorsprung dur technic," not unhindered by loose money on the european rim ..... And the French say everything is fine, don't short the euro ..... Anyone convinced?
  8. How about, the euro isn't plummeting because everyone else is printing too? That the euro declines to admit this, unlike everyone else, isn't really that important.
  9. "Like that US Civil War General Sedgwick, 'They couldn't hit an elephant at this........................' " Thank you for that reference. I've been looking for it for ages. As for the euro, it's working just a treat for the Hun. Who will not pay for his brethren on the rim. Will take every last jot of advantage from the depressionary deflation it will cause them. And if some of them fall away, as they probably will, the Hun will take every jot more he can wring out of them. Shame really. And I appreciate that is not a very nice thing to say. And I don't do it just to be nasty but because it's the best explanation for European interest rates I can find. And I don't think the Hun has done this. I think the Hun will take as much advantage of it as it is unforeseen and that is totally.
  10. I suppose the upside of an Irish default is the rest of us will be able to see if that approach works or not. And since it seems more and more like the Irish people want to default, the sooner they just get on and do it the better. If they do at least they'll stop blaming everyone else.
  11. "The cause of excessive lending was the Fed who lowered interest rates to ZERO in nominal terms and in real terms negative rates." I don't think that is correct. The blame game runs that the low European interest rates from c. 2000 - c.2006, lower than UK and US interesest rates, contributed strongly to the Irish asset bubble. If you are suggesting the Irish would have created a malign asset bubble in the noughties in or out of the single currency, well fair enough. You may well be right about that. But I can't see how the Fed has anything to do with it.
  12. I have a nasty suspicion European interest rates are set for German convenience rather than European benefit. Nice and low to get through all that money spent on trying to sort out their east and then nice and high to prevent German inflation taking a hold. Europe seems to be supremely irrelevant while the Hun jogs along happily, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12249714
  13. Yeah, blah, blah, blah, Livy was saying the same thing 2000 years ago, the Early History of Rome, Book 1, paragraph 4, some penguin version or other. Tacitus said the same thing 100 years after Livy and I bet loadsa peeps were bitchin' about that stuff before those two. How does it go? "We're finished. The kids are useless. Their parents are worse and all the good guys are dead." Despite the fact the average septic is more free than one of the 1840 vintage could ever conceive of (How about the abolition of slavery?), the depressive turgidity of these winey old so and sos rolls ever on, boringly so.
  14. Well there is the Wolfson Foundation, http://www.wolfson.org.uk/about-us/history/
  15. Fiscal union will make scant difference because the forces of financial discipline lack the resources to prevail. The only way the euro can survive is a s a loose money currency after the model of the peseta, lira, drachma, escudo, franc. The attempt to export northern european (mark, guilder, schilling) money discipline to the rest of europe like just so many mercedes (is the S class as good as they say?), is dead, has failed, has ceased to be. The Germans need to either accept this or set in train their exit process. In short, the Hun does not have the leverage over his cheeky little buddies in the sun.
  16. "European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet urged Ireland and Greece to live up to commitments made in return for financial help and said a broader European safety fund should be beefed up. Trichet was speaking on a French talk show on the eve of a regular meeting of euro zone finance ministers which was set to discuss an increase in the effective lending capacity of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)." http://uk.news.yahoo.com/22/20110116/tbs-uk-eurozone-trichet-commitments-4210405.html Could be a fun meeting. I wonder what they're gonna chat about.
  17. Another poster pointed out a while ago that the first letter of the serial number on each note identifies which country issued that note. According to the idiots guide, it's "T" for Ireland. And lets see here, I've got some U, some X and some Z. So I seem ok for just now but I think I'm gonna dump the Belgian one tomorrow morning just for fun. No harm in having a laugh.
  18. "In fact, there is loads of evidence that the US were a major arms supplier to Japan and Germany during the war." Not very pleasant of them. However, do remember that during one Boer War or another, the Brits sold the Boer maxim guns. On the basis that if we didn't, someone else would.
  19. "Here's a very uninteresting fact ..." Yes. You sure were right about that.
  20. Lets face it, Switzerland is about as interesting as this, And most of the people who live their have values about as varied as the beat of that drum machine. Not as bad as Australia, obviously ..... but you know ..
  21. And here we have (yet) another reason why Schwytzerland is a second rate domicile (of choice), Swiss director massacres a resurgent JB franchise, showing all that humour, sensitivity for nuance, genuine creativity and grit that the Albanians rather than the Swiss are famous for, http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/video/2008/oct/30/marc-forster (No disrespect to Albanians.)
  22. "OK, and I ask, what are you going to replace it with?" I think the point is to get away from a dysfunctional financial sector and return to a City of London that is great wealth generator, which it was for probably far longer that prat features' three hundred years. The aberration behaviour that lead up to the melt down of 2008 is the exception not the norm, which is why the FTSE 100 is now valued at 6002.07, having begun life on 3 January 1984 at 1000. Some decent regulation would be helpful, as would not overtaxing the rich. As for the, "We've no manufacturing industry ..." Industry accounts for 23% of UK GDP compared with 19% for France, a country seldom subject to the same accusation. Source: Idiots guide. (And you should know that by now.)
  23. It's not a bowl of cherries. It never is. But you know, reasons to be cheerful and all, "Triumph for UK manufacturing as motorbike firm overtakes rivals ..." http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jan/13/triumph-sales-boost-uk-manufacturing Whoever would've thought that back when ... ?
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