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House Price Crash Forum


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About john

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  1. Yes, of course 'Sold' is 'subject to contract' and a few sales do fall though but most do complete.
  2. So, according to this article, the principle fact is that house prices have fallen by 0.1% over 5 months. 0.1% is surely within the probable error limits for any measurement of this kind. So what we have so far is a flattening of the curve, there is no way you could describe that tiny fall as a price crash. Of course, it might become a crash, but then again it might not - houses are still more affordable than they were just befor the last crash and people are generally happier about borrowing money these days. I notice that in one village in Hertfordshire which I visit regularly (although I
  3. DIY tip: I used mine for for about 5 years as a mortor mixing board for occasional small jobs. They are useually a double layer kind of plastic board which is easy to wash clean and is surprisingly wear resistant. John
  4. Thanks for the interesting information. The figures suggest that the average btl mortgage is about £100,000 so I guess this must be quite a high proportion of the average btl purchase price, given that btl properties seem to be mostly at the lower end of the market. I looked at some of the other statistics on the website and noted that in 2004 the total number of mortgages was 1245000, so if there were 526200 btl mortgages then 42% mortgages were btl. That seems an impossibly high percentage to me, although I know that btl has been increasingly popular I would not have thought it could acco
  5. I read somewhere recently that most btl property is aquired with cash not loans, is that true? One thing is that we have recently come through a period when quite a few investors have become at least a bit sceptical about the stock market and have been seeking alternatives. Perhaps this partly explains the continued interest in btl despite high purchase prices reducing relative returns. In recent years I have worked for several firms connected with luxury yacht building. Know of one firm with one yacht under construction at £150,000,000 and two more on order at over £100,000,000. - still
  6. I expect you are right, but I dont think it follows that because it doent make economic sense it wont happen that way. The reason being that the wealthy minority, which includes many landlords, has more control over the situation than everyone else put together. The transfer of money from tenants to landlords not only makes landlords richer and able to buy up more property to let but makes everone else poorer so reducing the number of people who can manage to buy their own houses, so keeping up the demand for rented houses and tending to perpetuate the situation. From my recollection of schoo
  7. Looking at the estate agents window in the Devon village where I live it seems to me that many vendors are still pricing their houses on the basis of last years value plus 20% or so. That has worked fine for the last few years but doesnt seem to be working this year. However the number of houses up for sale does not seem all that high, it does not look like a glut of houses for sale, at least not at the moment. At risk of stating the obvious, the supply of houses is limited by planing laws, if this were not the case then the price of a house would fall into line with other manufactured produ
  8. During my lifetime I have seen only one real house price crash but I can remember a number of stagnation periods. I have to say that so far what the surveys have been indicating looks much more like one of those stagnation periods than a real crash. The situation is certainly different to the time of the last price crash with lower and more stable interest rates. This may be just the stage we have reached in the progress of the industrial revolution rather than any shorter term cyclical change. Another thing that is different now is that there are still plenty of people around who can remember
  9. Well, since the mean line is rising up the graph you would rather expect the amplitude of the swings to increase in absolute terms, if this were not the case then the peturbations expressed as a percentage of the trend line values would actually be decreasing with time, that is the market would become increasingly more stable.
  10. Well, basically I was starting by thinking about what are the likely causes of house prices rising. People have a certain amount of after tax income. A part of that has to get spent on essentials, like food. The next part gets spent on little luxuries that we particularly want, like home computers. Then, for many of us everything else gets spent on a mortgage to buy the largest most comfortable house possible. The house prices simply reflect the size of that mortgage. So why has the largest affordable mortgage risen so much over the last decades? Two reasons I think, one is lower interest rate
  11. Hi, I was around when we had the last house price crash and from memory it all happened much quicker than that and without any warning cracking noises. It happened at the end of a month, a summer month I think it was. Within almost days, weeks certainly, it was obvious to everyone that house prices were plunging. The situation now seems quite different to me, we have numerous surveys reported over many months and although it is becoming apparant that we are at least entering a slow down there is still no evidence of anything you could describe as a crash. Last time we had a real crash you didn
  12. OK, there is an annual pretax loss there even without allowing for all the costs of letting so if we have a few years of more or less stagnation in house prices that landlord will have lost a few thousand. But should the prices then start rising again he will make up a loss of a few thousand remarkably quickly I think. It would seem to need a real big crash for property letting not to be profitable in the longer term and with low and stable interest rates the situation just dont seem much like the last time we had one of those big crashes. I recently sold the house I was letting so it would b
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