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Posts posted by johnny5thumbs

  1. something doesn't feel right about these headline numbers. On the ground jlp is asquiet as everyone else.

    I'd agree with that. Something is skewing these figures if they are even genuine. Most retailers in my West Country town experienced an absolute bloodbath in Xmas week, and nearby towns similar. Here, high ticket items got hit the hardest - sub £10 items held up the best.

    Record Boxing Day queues in Arndales & megamalls around the country don't add up to an enhanced bottom line for retailers. PLC retailers have a tendency to slash prices to any level just to get footfall and spend, and then hope to catch up margin later on before the accounts get compiled. Why? Lots of senior jobs are on the line - their jobs are only as safe as this quarter's figures. So the figures get ridiculously skewed.

    I'd bet that there's been more of a downturn over Xmas than the chain-store generated headlines would have you believe. Let's see when the results come out.

  2. Well - don't ask me for data, but it's a given amongst the city E.A. boys that banker mega-bonuses fuel top end property prices in desirable city locations such as Canary Wharf etc. And the reverse has the reverse effect. Therre was a curious apocryphal glitch during the oh-too-short slump in 2008 when a whole lump of Canary Wharf stuff came flooding onto the market artificially raising the average price. Trying to prove it is another matter, m'lud !

    I'll go a step further.

    Any sustained increased activity in the top end of the market artifiically drags prices upwards in our shoddy so-called indices.

    When the rich buy in droves, they raise average property prices.

    And when they panic-sell in droves, the same happens.

    There's a lot going on behind every month's Nationwide or Halifax that needs discounting before swallowing it alll hook, line ...

  3. Why should it do anything? A lot of people seem to think there's a relationship between the commercial and residential property cycles, but is there? There's no necessary, causal one that I can see, however if there been any research on it I'd like to see it.

    Well - don't ask me for data, but it's a given amongst the city E.A. boys that banker mega-bonuses fuel top end property prices in desirable city locations such as Canary Wharf etc. And the reverse has the reverse effect. Therre was a curious apocryphal glitch during the oh-too-short slump in 2008 when a whole lump of Canary Wharf stuff came flooding onto the market artificially raising the average price. Trying to prove it is another matter, m'lud !

  4.  Just checked Kitco, looks like Gold hit $1427 and has just dropped back a little to $1421,  it seems  another resistance level has been broken at $1400.

    ...and yet, even though gold is breaching record levels once again, Randgold, usually a good gold price tracker, is having trouble clearing the 6000p level. Any ideas why?

  5. I'm just about to let tesco know about the site - I'm sure they'll take their brand devaluation pretty seriously.

    It's the real thing, unfortunately. Punch in tesco.com, ands take a peek at the bottom right of their homepage .. it's certainly there.

    They've never been known for cultivating an overly upmarket clientele, but this sinks them a tad lower.


  6. Hehe. Devon ain't expensive. You can pick up a flat for loose change!

    You're a very naughty boy, Porca Miseria. Winding up the regulars, indeed !

    There's no way you'd ever live in Neswick St. even if they gave it to you rent-free. Stop encouraging them - everone will think the likes of Salcombe and Noss Mayo are affordable, too !

    When Totnes prices come down to 'loose change' levels, then I'm ready to be convinced. Until then ...


  7. The US is well on the skids, with both USD and JPY also being pulled down by rising tensions with China, and EUR is being battered by the likes of Greece

    When sterling recovers to 250 against the yen, like it was 3 years ago, then I'll feel like having a celebration party. Or even 180. BIoody heII - I'll even settle for 160. I can't afford to go visit the wife's friends & family in Kyoto and Okinawa at the moment without dipping very deeply into 5thumbs meagre savings.

    Sterling recovery? What recovery?


  8. Does anyone know of a more cost effective way of making such transfers? Is it worth having $ bank account?


    I have a USD a/c with Barclays, and it's still much the same situation as yours - they cream off about 5c on the transfer rate. I phoned up a couple of FX bureaux last year, and their rates ar loads better on larger (ie: house purchase) amounts, but about the same on smaller (USD 2000 - USD 4000) amounts.

    I'd def. look into the halifax a/c that tpbeta mentioned in his post - I certainly will.

  9. The reason there is a lull in the "housing market" & "prices" at the moment is - purely and simply - the curtailment of


    And, no doubt, by March next year, the Vested Interests will have pulled enough strings/carried out enough lobbying behind the scenes at the top levels of Govt., Banks, FSA [etc etc.] - so that LIAR LOANS will be back, in greater strength again, in some form or another - and the whole stupid Ponzi-pyramid Scam starts all over again..... :rolleyes:

    Thank you, Eric. I hadn't heard that phrase for several days now. I'm coming over all nostalgic suddenly. :P

  10. It seems that even my small home town is home to delusional sellers.

    Mr. M. - I'm disappointed. I thought you were going to show me something price at 250k or some other such absurdity.

    A mere 16% increase in the last 2 years seems to be about par for the course for estate agents even in crappier parts of the country.


    btw - my Japanese wife doesn't know who Miyagi-san is. She seems to have missed the entire series of Karate Kid. (possibly because she was in Japan at the time ...)

  11. Our deeds were sent to us some years ago and reside in my filing cabinet. And yes, we do still have a sum outstanding on the mortgage.

    Those of you with historic properties with lovely old deeds hand-written on parchment - for Chrissakes, don't ever let your solcitor send them to the Land Registry - all old docs are now being shredded by them as title is transferred to an electronic database.

    Gord help us when they outsource the whole shebang to Bangalore. I lost all my gorgeous 300 year old parchments when I sent my docs into the Land Reg for updating. All I have is an elexctronic title. Apparently you can request that the Land Reg. return all historic docs to you, or better still, just get your solr.to send them the last 100 years docs instead, and keep the older stuff safe under lock and key.

  12. Fabulous ! This is about the funniest thing I've ever seen on HPC - even better than the Skelmersdale ugly flats competition.

    The E.A. MUST be taking the p i There's absolutely no way he could not have been aware of what he was doing.

    And as for the body under the duvet in pic.18 - looks he had his bags packed, but never made it out of the building, poor sod.

  13. Hi,

    I am thinking to invest in 2 bed flats in Bristol. Could anyone show me the area in Bristol that worth investing?

    I am generally looking for 2 or 1 bed flats in Bristol < 150K.

    Many thanks.

    Hi Kevin.

    I'm going to assume that you're not taking the piss and are asking a serious question.

    I think you mighgt find a rough consensus on HPC that dipping your toe into BTL is probably an ill-advised thing to do in Bristol or any other urban area right now.

    Some HPC'ers may put it more strongly.

  14. If these blokes are so smart, how come they're short gold when it keeps going up. I thought they knew about these things.

    You can go both long and short on a metal at the same time, trading on the fluctuations. JPM are bound to be holding positions on both sides.

    Plus, on a darker note, the city and some of the media have always been great at tipping shares / metals / commodities shortly before unloading their own personal holdings. A good rumour or headline is always good for a a last percent or two onto the price.

  15. If I execute a trade on selftrade for BP at the stated price of 403.05p at the limit (sunday night 23:39), am I likely to get that price when the market opens and is there any risks doing such a thing? They've capped the well and their blaming transocean for some of the trouble so I thought it might be a nice earner at 403p.

    Always a dangerous thing to do, if you've placed for execution "at best". Other things can happen to send the whole market south, not just BP.

    I always execute live, or set a min / max.

    Alkso, the market will have already factored in the capping of the well. But further rises in spot crude could enhance the price.

  16. There are two 3-bed houses to rent (I won't bother linking them) for 480pw on Scholars and 350pw on Hydethorpe. Rents (as advertised) seem much more erratic than house prices (from property to property, that is - over time they are more stable).

    They typically seem to be in the 400pw to 500pw for very similar looking properties.

    Just to the maths:

    rent: say 450pw = 23,400pa (crikey that's scarey)

    buy: say 650,000 @ 5%pa = 32,500 (even scarier)

    So that looks getting on for 1/3 overvalued to me. Even at current low interest rates.

    Bigpig, some may think this kind of detailed data analysis is a trifle 'anorak', but to me and hopefuly other HPC'ers, you are another unsung hero on HPC.co.uk. providing a service trhat Rightmove is never ever going to offer.

    Do please keep us all posted with your results as they become apparent.


  17. Dunno, I feel the losses are old news though, there was massive ranting in 2009 about China gifting the USA 10 aircraft carrier battle groups, not carriers battle groups + air wing + escorts + subs. because they kept on buying US$ when the US was printing. There was a huge outcry about this, since a carrier group costs rather a lot of money 20-30bnish your 300bn figure could well be a closeish ball park figure.

    There were lots of angry people phoning in on the radio shows I listened to.

    Ken - who exactly are you ? Nihongo wakarimasu, kedo ... Chugokujin desuka ?

    btw - congrats on yr new(ish) HPC rating/description.

  18. Shipping is one of those monopolistic businesses whereby there are only a few companies on the planet which do it.... from China and back companies like:

    COSCO, China Shipping Container Lines,Orient Overseas Container Line,Sinotrans and Hanjin are tiny compared to Maesk..

    It is like car insurance if you crash you get a pay out but you also get loaded premiums...

    therefore if Maesk loses they can simply up the charge for Argos if they are ever used in the future. Since they ae monopolistic with there only being a few firms doing it they can make phone calls and go cartel against argos (they probably do run a cartel anyway) so argos in the long run ends up paying more than it bargained for forwhatever it wants.

    I would have though that a giant like Maersk would be hedging on the Baltic Dry to at least cover its existing obligations.

  19. Short term I reckon the rotten business fundamentals will see FTSE at 4k before the end of the year.

    However as other assets crash, bonds look more and more iffy and ZIRP continues we will see traditionally risk averse money (Pensions, some savers) piling into the stock market just to try to get an above inflation return. This could bounce the FTSE around wildly.

    12months out, I wouldn't be surprised to see FTSE at 12,000, with hyperinflation kicking in (as Mikhail mentioned)

    Just a sideshow really, I'm not invested in the stock market (well, apart from a couple of old pension policies with £6k in, which I can't get to anyhow). So, I couldn't really care less.

    Well, Jim - I tend to agree with you. Somewhere between 4000 & 12,000. Blimey - that's a relief - I can switch my calculator back over to mnus 3 decimal places once again. :o)

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