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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by FTBagain

  1. I take it that was deliberate... Waiting two years is good advicce especially with a £20k deposit in the bank.
  2. Don't think of the house you live in as an investment that will ever earn you money. You can only ever make money out of a business (either directly or by investing in it) or a job. Too many people think that their home is an investment that they can withdraw money from. Wrong. All they are doing is taking on extra debt. The concept of debt is not understood well. It is in fact a risk, a huge risk. That risk was mitigated when house prices were rising. Now that house prices are falling that risk is amplified. Weigh the risk very very carefully. Get it wrong and you could be regretting it for the rest of your life.
  3. DrBubb said watch the share values of the builders as an early indicator of trouble in the housing market. He was right!
  4. It's not just the South East. There is a small development just outside Salisbury, started a few months back. They have cleared the site and put in the curb stones and a new junction, complete with (covered up) traffic lights, on the main road. Last time I was down there a friend told me there were romours they were going to close the site down. Must have cost a lot to get absolutely nothing back! The construction industry is a major employer in this country. Back in the late eighties early ninties when the construction industry shred staff unemployment took off. Any VI, who talks of 'fundementals being strong', watching these stories must be bricking it! I feel sorry for the workers though. A lot of people are going to struggle. Who knows where it will end.
  5. I went for -3 to -4 annual and -2 to -3 MoM. I'm expecting Halifax to 'adjust' the figures, but hoping the fall to will be big enough to overwhelm even their cooking recipe. Here's hoping for >5 YoY.
  6. Sorry to hear that. Don't bad histories get wiped clean after a period of time?
  7. "Redrow lay of 15% of staff" I had not seen that today. Last time around the loss of jobs in the construction industry was a major cause of unemployment. One of the so called sound fundementals we keep hearing so much about. The contagion is spreading and fast by the sound of it.
  8. Where it is dead for 5 or 20 years doesn't really worry me. I just want to be able to buy myown home...
  9. Market cycles do have one good point, once they have really turned they usually keep going for a reasonable period. I think we can safely say this market has turned. It is now, at least from my point of view, just a question of how far it will fall.
  10. One of the chaps in the office came up to me today and said,"We were right about the crash!" He was slightly bearish a couple of years ago, but I guess there is no need to say it any more. Everyone knows the game is up. Even the bulls in the office are quiet these days. It is just about how far it will go now. 50% in two years would be nice
  11. Your inital comments speak for themselves. BS lending down 68%. They must be looking for excusing not to lend. At this rate we could find ourselves in a position in which the majority of houses are bought with CRASH. I read somewhere that nearly a third of houses were cash buys, not sure if that is true or not. Anyone know what the figures are?
  12. Exactly. The banks publicity offers do not seem to stack up the what appears to be actually happening in the market place. See my post above, £200k mortgage on a £750k house queried by the bank. All is not well in the banking world.
  13. If you think that is incredible check this out from the Times Now that is a serious lack of confidence on the banks part if you ask me. I wonder if they are giving bonuses for the biggest mortgage refusal these days
  14. It seems to lead on the way up and lag on the way down...
  15. Just thought I'd post this graph. Isn't it pretty. Halifax next week. Rightmove next month. Now that will be a hattrick worth celebrating... I felt so good this morning
  16. Now up to 3813. Bet the LTV'v and rates are not as good though.
  17. I'm not so sure about that. I did a study for work not so long ago on oil. The reserve data looked very suspect and the back ground information that I found suggested that it was highly politicised ie rubbish. Production data on the otherhand is harder to fake because it is visible, eg you can count the tankers leaving the Gulf. Global production has been flat since mid 2005 at a time of rising prices. I think we may be in big trouble... The risk is certainly worth guarding against if possible.
  18. I voted -2% (assuming MoM). I've got data going back three years :angry: that shows that the 'big three' indices usually move in lockstep overtime. Rightmove has been above trend the last couple of months, so I expect it to fall into line with Haliwide over the next couple of months.
  19. Just goes to show, read the small print or get professional help.
  20. The original debt was £16k. So I think he has some right to feel a bit hard done, as specially as it seems he was never told about the short fall once the house was sold.
  21. Sorry, here is the link http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7317470.stm
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