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FTBagain

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  1. Just in case the Bubble to Bubble artical wasn't bad enough the following artical 'United States: Has inflation peaked?' was very bearish. The author was suggesting that the US inflation rate is likely to accelerate, hence the Fed base rate will need to rise. The artical made the point that consumption was still quite strong judging by the the commodity prices, most notable OIL, hence inflation is not yet dead! It is all beginning to sound a bit scarry! First thing to happen is the ***! Lets get it over with sooner rather than later, because all the commentry seems to be saying the longer and bigger the bubble runs on for the harder the fall. We don't want a '30 style depression because it is likely that we will all be too poor to take advantage of cheap housing! . Besides I don't think I would wish that kind of hardship on anyone. All in all HPC is underway. FBTagain Hoping for an 'adjustment' not a depression.
  2. As anyone else noticed that there appears to be alot of properties being removed from the market just lately? It is now showing up on my data as a big fall in the total number of properties up For Sale. We have seen lots of properties that we have been keeping an eye on, on Rightmove, are now coming up as 'No Longer For Sale' and we are pretty sure that many did not go through the STC stage. At first I was concerned that the market in BA1 might be picking up but the wider area does not appear to be behaving in the same manner. Also there have been some pretty big falls in the asking prices of individaul houses that are still on the market. It has occured to me that the EA's may be getting tough with vendor's who are holding out for unrealistic prices. For example the EA's may be cutting back on their out goings, Rightmove cannot be cheap if you are not selling / completing. We having been looking at a few properties and the EA's appear quite keen to tell us that the property has come down in value. In fact, we even had one say we were a very good position, because we are renting and its a 'buyers market' . Has anyone heard any anecdotes that may support any of these observations? Cheers FTBagain PS when HOMETRACK finally release their report I'll post a very interesting graph!
  3. I like most on this site have been keeping a close I on lots of data, particularly from HBOS and Nationwide et al. The data I was keenest to have was the monthly indices, however, the last couple of months HBOS have not been putting any number in their up dated spreadsheets. Post in May on there RPI sheet. 2004 Nov 222.5 5.57 2004 Dec 223.6 5.41 2005 Jan 222.4 . 2005 Feb . . 2005 Mar . . 2005 Apr . . Posted in 7 June on their RPI sheet. 2004 Nov 222.5 5.57 2004 Dec 223.6 5.41 2005 Jan 222.4 . 2005 Feb . . 2005 Mar . . 2005 Apr . . 2005 May . . Just follow the links to HBOS from the graphs page. I wonder why? Could it be that it is not quite in line with their predictions! FTBagain
  4. Don't worry dipstick, the market doesn't real need another IR rise anyway. Just check out all the graphs that have been posted on this site. The momentum is deffinately going down. When the YOY growth rate goes negative for June / July (August at the outside IMPO) then the headlines will be great reading! That does not mean that there could not be another rate rise though. Merve King made some pretty bearish remarks early last week, and despite falling oil prices over the previous couple of months, inflation stayed at 1.9%. Now factor in the rises in oil prices this week and the pressure is up. Could yet see inflation comfortably above 2% by the end of the year and IR's would start to rise again. It is very difficult to call at the moment. FTBagain
  5. The Economist artical is so powerful because it basically gives one simple message message. Supply and Demand are linked by Price! Simple. In reallity there is a shortage in housing globally, just look at the pictures from Africa, but in advanced countries I am not so sure any more. If fact, most politicians keeping saying that there is no shortage, only an shortage of AFFORDABLE housing! If that is the case then the simple law of Supply and Demand will kick in, and Boy is it going to kick in! To be honest the HPC is already here, it peaked last June / July, but as DrBubb points out the cry Wolf effect has still not been over come yet. For most of us here it does not make any difference what others think, the die is cast, but it would be nice to be taken seriously! Besides, the sooner we get this over with the sooner we can all get on with the rest of our lives. FTBagain
  6. oracle I have had a crack at producing the graphs you suggested. They are in word format (have not yet worked out how to put up those clever thumb nails etc!!). The data is from HBOS, I thought it would be nice to use their data to take a pot shot at their optomistic view of the world! I have produced two graphs, the first from early 80's the second just from Jan 2002. The blue curve is the YOY % change reported monthly. The pink curve is effectively the instantaneous 'Slope' of the blue curve. The yellow curve is a four point average of the pink curve, as you requested, to take out the sudden changes. However, as the yellow and pinks are very closely correlated it is clear the the 2% per month decline in YOY growth it pretty mush a constant feature at the moment. If that trend continues 0% YOY growth will be achieve in July and by July 2006 house price drop will be abou 20 to 25%!! I will keep these up to date and if anyone can tell me how to post my Excel graphs direct, I would be very grateful. My orginal, slightly fun, point about all the arrows turning down and red also had a serious point. When they do all turn it will mark the point at which all the VI's agree the the market has fallen. That is likely to hit the headlines. It will be just a little interesting to see how the BBC report that one. Personnally I would like to see Jerremy Paxman do a job on someone from HBOS or Nationwide. That would be fun to watch. Enjoy FTBagain
  7. oracle I have had a crack at producing the graphs you suggested. They are in word format (have not yet worked out how to put up those clever thumb nails etc!!). The data is from HBOS, I thought it would be nice to use their data to take a pot shot at their optomistic view of the world! I have produced two graphs, the first from early 80's the second just from Jan 2002. The blue curve is the YOY % change reported monthly. The pink curve is effectively the instantaneous 'Slope' of the blue curve. The yellow curve is a four point average of the pink curve, as you requested, to take out the sudden changes. However, as the yellow and pinks are very closely correlated it is clear the the 2% per month decline in YOY growth it pretty mush a constant feature at the moment. If that trend continues 0% YOY growth will be achieve in July and by July 2006 house price drop will be abou 20 to 25%!! I will keep these up to date and if anyone can tell me how to post my Excel graphs direct, I would be very grateful. Enjoy
  8. Unfortunately, I'm old enough to remember the last two big crashes. The 1979 crash was associated with rising prices, interest rates and unemployment. The nightmare scenario has far as the BOE are concerned. The present situation of rising energy costs and deflating retail prices is very bad news for UK producers as they are being squeazed. Their first option will be to cut costsie jobs. Then if that does not work they will have to start to pass on their costs, so inflation will start to work through. The inefficient ones will go bust as they will still be unable to put their prices up enough, because of competition. More jobs lost. IR's will rise to counter inflation, putting up cost and the loop starts again. The driver for this is OIL. And believe me it was very very bad in 1979. Started my engineering apprenticeship that year. Was told that if we kept our noses clean we would be guaranteed a job. By the end of the year the factory had laid off 40% of its' work force and we knew we could count ourselves lucky if we got to finish our apprenticeships. This time the consumer could be hit with huge debts as well! I am convinced this is going to be very bad again. I hope I am wrong, especially on the jobs front, but we are in phase one of the process as all the factors start to work together and the loop closes, just watch the amplification effect. FTBagain
  9. Like most on this site I have been trying to judge the market and looking at all sorts of data trying to work out when the market final lets go! Well it occured to me how to spot the crash (ignoring the fact that phase one is already underway). Simply look at the first page of this site! When all the little arrows go from pointing up and being Blue to pointing down and RED.... Duck
  10. slater14, Many, many thanks for all your typing, hope the fingers are not too sore! The artical was very interesting and not a little frightening. Frightening, because I am convinced that we are heading into a property led recession and it could be the Mother of all recessions in which alot of people get hurt, including some/many of us here. We could of course avoid a complete melt down but the risks are very high. High oil prices, a global house price bubble and a rapidly expanding China sucking in finance away from other markets all add up to a very serious scenario. However, in any catastrophe there are opportunities! A house price crash being one, and the crash may well be more advanced than the chaps in the artical have noted. Check the new thread "The Repros Start To Mount" by zzq113. It highlights anicdotal evidence that repros are on the rise in NW London. If that is a more general trend then London will not be stagnent for much longer and forced selling will be well and truely established in the market place. That will be two of the main bull defences breached and the print is barely dry! Another defence was low unemployment/ high employment. Well we just lost a major print works in Paulton just out side Bath. 400 jobs gone with another 600 in supporting businesses. More forced selling for the housing market, especially is those people have no savings! It is going to be a long cold winter (although this June is pretty chilly as well!!) Take care folks and be careful what you wish for!! FTBagain
  11. All I'm not convinced by the need for a shock! I have been doing some research and remembering (sadly I'm old enough to remember the last two crashes). It seems to me that we tend to suggest a shock looking back. But I do not ever remember any say, "Gosh I'm shocked about the price of petrol." or what ever! Rather it was a number of things happening at the same time. Oil prices, jobs, wars and falling prices themselves all tended to contribute to the crash. We now have all of these in abundence. The crash is here. See the Nationwide - History Repeating itself! thread by Riser. I wish I had come up with that myself. An outstanding and simple piece of analysis that should get any VI worried. The only problem is that these things take time! We just have to wait, but the crash is here and now! FTBagain
  12. Guess what caused the first two HPC's on the famous graph on the home page of this site. Yup! Oil prices. Although the second HPC in 1979 was triggered by an oil price of about $80 per barrel in todays' money.
  13. I have been doing a lot of watching and thinking about economics and the housing market over the last couple of years and the 'trigger' issue is one that I have been particularly interested in. It occured to me that there are potential triggers coming along all the time, it is just that we do not notice of them because the market conditions are not ready for a crash. For example, war is never good for an economy (unless you made weapons) but the Gulf War did not trigger a housing crash. The market stuttered but then recovered. Other causes for a HPC can be commodity prices as they drive inflation and interest rates. Oil is the best known commodity price and indeed it has caused two HPC's in the past, 1973 and 1979. These were also against the background of rising unemployment cause by the growing power of Japan, putting pressure on our over confident and fat industries that just could not cope with the two pronged pressures, rising costs and falling profits. Heard any of this before? Well two day we have China, and oil just went back through $50 per barrel. Hey, even BSkyB are talking about job cuts. Oil will be the trigger again this time IMO, especially if China keeps growing and why shouldn't it? After all they do account for a very sizable chunk of the global population. And then there is India following very close behind. The worste case is that inflation and unemployment go up at the sametime. The central banks will be caught between a rock and a hard point, buut remember that it could be us losing OUR jobs. I want house prices to come as I am priced out of the market, but I am also aware that we could get hurt as well! All said and down, the trigger is already here IMO. OIL or rather the lack of it! FTBagain
  14. vicster I attach the main chart, the others I have need a bit of work to understand them (never thought anyone else would be that interested! so no labels etc). The chart shows the number of houses in BA1 for less than £200k - £300k in £50k steps, plus one at <£200k for BA1 + 1 mile around. The great thing is that they are all rising, indeed they rose alot today, but it is too early to say if this is the begining of the post 'spring bounce' increase of numbers. The other thing is that there was a leveling off of the numbers during the bounce period, not a drop that you would expect if the market was accelerating. Which suggests that the market has stagnated, all be it at a higher level of activity than at previous months, an analysis supported by the big VI. This means I am probably looking at the same data they are, shame they are such poor data analysists (a point that really offends me :angry: !) otherwise they would look back at historical data and start brushing up their CV's! As I said in my first post I believe that once the bounce is over there will be very little left to support the market. I am beginning to think that this might well be the beginning of the final phase! but I ain't shouting about it just yet! Enjoy the graph. (I hope I have posted it correctly, shout if it don't work. It is in Word.) FTBagain House_Numbers_in_BA1.doc House_Numbers_in_BA1.doc
  15. Hi all, This is my first post to hpc, so I'll just introduce myself first if that is OK. I'm looking to rejoin the house market after about 10yrs renting. Got married last year and myself and my wife are very keen to have a place of our own. I am also very keen not to get stung as we are at an age that means we need to consider our retirement (still got a long way to go, but mortgages hang around your neck for a long time too!). We have been looking to move in the Bath area for about a year now (currently in rented) but, well you know all about the prices in Bath! As a techie kind of chap I have been collecting data on houses in the Bath area on a daily basis for nearly 8 months now and some interesting trends are developing. I have been monitoring the numbers of houses for sale in £50k price bands in the BA1 post code on Rightmove. During the spring bounce there was a surge in the number of houses coming on the market in the first quarter of this year. The number of houses under £300k, went up from about 80 to just under 120 and the rise was very steap indeed (I know £300k is a lot of money more than we can afford! but if the market does drop 45%, well , also if the top end falls first then it will push the rest down). It has levelled out somewhat but we have also noted that quite a few seem to be coming back on to the market. No FTB means chains are failing, perhaps! I also noted today that the numbers of houses at the very expensive end of the market £500k area (dream) have just doubled or there abouts. Could be the smart money is bailing out? All these extra houses means lots more competition, oh goody! I have long thought that if this years spring bounce does not hold then the market will crash shortly afterwards, although I have not shouted about this because of lasts years dip / recovery! The news is generally bad this time hopefully come June / July the crash will be reported as such as I think it is already here. If anyone is interested I'll post some charts next time. FTBagain PS wish I had kept my nice 2 bed flat that I bought at the bottom of the last crash :angry: .
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