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Everything posted by FTBagain

  1. No systems to deal with the impact of an AIG (knock on effects of a bank failure already covered by post '30 depression. A new body to look at retail issues. People taking out loans they cannot repay. Companies pushing complex products. Overly complex term and conditions will be banned. Standards applied to banks will be extended to wider lender companies.
  2. New regulation of whole system. The Fed to regulate those firms that could pose a great risk. If you pose great risk you have great responsibility. A new oversight body to take broad and long view.
  3. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7927039.stm
  4. I was called into a meeting on Monday, by e-mail and informed that my job was on the at risk list... The thing is I work in the defence industry and in discussions with my team leader today it turns out that much of the work expected from the MOD has been delayed or cancelled in response to the treasury cutting back. Why? Because they have given all the dosh to the banks... :angry: It is a bit of a shock to be told that after 20 years you are surplus to requirements Thinking about it Fred the Shred's pension is probably the value of the annual saleries of the 400 people likely to loose their jobs. And that idiot Darling says there is no need to strength the regulations. The leadership of this country both political and industrial has been awful since WW2. Our once great nation, home of the industrial revolution, and countless inventions has been reduced to a hollowed out shell. It is about time they were held to account. Politicians need to understand that they serve us the people. Company bosses, particularly PLC's need to be held to account by their shareholders, particularly when those shareholders are our pension funds. What is the point of a ension fund if you loose your job 20 years before retirement... Edit: Sorry it's a bit of a ramble / rant but I am really pi**ed off (and that is the first time I have ever f**king swarn on here.)
  5. Both diarists commented that the markets are ignoring 'Black Swan' events such as the North Korean nuclear tests. Both seem to be suggesting that the traders do not believe this rally is based on anything real. It is all hype. It is interesting to hear 'insider' comments like this. It appears that the unrealistic nature of the market rally is becoming ever more main stream. This rally could be close to the end... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8081484.stm Sorry if this has been posted before.
  6. The deflation verses inflation debate has got me wondering for sometime as we appear to have both. Asset and wage deflation and price inflation, which is of course the worst possible combination. They each need the opposite economic treatements, low rates and QE to treat the deflation and high interest rates to treat the inflation... Is it possible to have QE and high interest rates at the sametime? I cannot think of any reason why not, but I am not an expert on the financial markets. Could, for example, the BoE extend its' QE to include corporate bonds to support those 'too big to fail' companies whilst pushing up interest rate to curb prices. Of course they could just wait for unemployment to rise to do the job for them...
  7. Your example does not surprise me in a city where the average house (3 bed semi) sells for something close to 10 times average earnings. AS for debt slavery... I flatly refuse to get involved in that game. Why should I bail out some feckless idiot who went in over their heads. I and Mrs FTBagain have saved for years to put together our deposit and frankly if we get it wrong this time we are probably too old to recover. This is really last chance city for us.
  8. Congratulations and well done. Hope you enjoy your new home. Take care, FTBagain
  9. Bockaaarck You make a good point regarding Rightmove's 'market share' of the letting advertising market. I was aware that there was / is increasing competition on the sales side which may be artificially lowering the number of properties for sale on the site, but I was not aware that Rightmove were growing on the letting side. These two points would clearly have an impact on the trends however other evidence, such as a significant and noticable increase in the number of 'To Let' signs around the city in recent months supports the data. Also I would suggest that the company would have to be doing very very well to increase the numbers in the manner indicated on the graph Also the comments regarding falling rents made in this thread suggest that supply must be increasing. Taken together these all point to considerable potential for significant drop in Bath house prices. Sooner or late the last straw will land on the camel's back...
  10. Hi All, Just read through this thread yesterday and thought you might be interested in the data I have been collecting of the last FOUR :angry: years. This one shows the number of rental properties (all types) on Rightmove from July 2005 This one shows the numbers of 3 beds houses for sale (what I am interested in) on Rightmove in the BA1 area (not quite the same area but I never imagined that I would end up with so much data...) from September 2004 . Anyway, the two graphs show a very steep rise in rental over the last couple of years and a fall in the numbers for sale. If everything else is equal I think we can say that there is a tendency to rent out whilst waiting for the market to 'pick up' (there will be other things going on obviously ). On the plus side the numbers for sale appear to be just starting to rise. I believe that this data shows that there are an awful lot of potentially panicky sellers in Bath. Bath is far from immune. It's just a bit behind the curve that's all. Another point is that a 10% fall nationally represnets about £15k in Bath the number is nearer £25k on the average semi... £250k fr the average semi, barking... Cheers FTBagain
  11. Seems the 'green shoots' nonsense is not just a UK thing. It truely is a global economy.
  12. Yeh £300k for a standard 3 bed semi is not unusual. Given that the average wage is probably in the region and £25k to £30k. I have been watching prices in the city for fours year (DOH!) they were falling quite quickly a few months ago but the falls slowed right down in the last quarter of 08 and the first first quarter of this year. On the plus side there are over 500 empty rentals in the city suggesting that those who cannot sell are trying to rent instead. Rising unemployment could change their mind though and start to force the issue...
  13. Thanks, I think most people in this country are going to need luck before this is over. As I have said in the past. What is it we do that other nations would want to buy off us... Ships? Steel? Coal? Cars? Motor Bikes? Machine Tools? Aircraft? Vacuum Cleaners (even Dyson builds his overseas now)? China (as in crockery)? Oh yeh I nearly forgot Banking and financial services... expect 500 such jobs went yesterday at Royal Sun Alliance in Bristol. DOH!
  14. I used to live just down the road from their barracks in Church Crookham. Never heard of any trouble from them. They had a very well deserved reputation for good behaviour. Funniest thing was seeing out on a Friday night. They would sometimes go as a group to a local restaurant. They were out of uniform, except they were all in exactly the same trousers and shirt. Made me smile, bless 'em. Apparently they get issued with same when they are deployed to the UK. This is a dreadful blight on our national honour. So much for a sense of responsibility and justice. Dreadful.
  15. The housing market has been very resilient just lately. I have been saying for sometime the unemployment would bring the market down. Just found this artical. http://www.thisisbath.co.uk/news/Unemploym...il/article.html I saw an artical on the BBC a couple of months ago where they were comparing two towns in the north. One of them was Chester. Employmeny in Chester was holding up very well, it being an affulent town. Well Bath is hardly poor either, but unemployment cometh... I wonder how many more affulent towns are about to find out the hard trueth about this 'recession'. My company has just declared a wage freeze so for the first time in twenty years I am starting to feel vulnerable. I cannot be the only one. This is just what I feared would happen and it is only just getting started. 'Green shoots'...
  16. And the maqrkets were forecasting -1.5%. The idiot on the BBC News business section was babbling on about a possible slowdown in the rate at which the recession was moving... green shoots tosh. I know he was only repeating what the economists were saying, but... The thing is so many people believe this rubbish. Look at the Rightmove figures, asking prices up again. As I keep saying to Mrs FTBagain, unemployment hasn't even kicked in yet. When it does the recession will really get going, this is just the opening shots.
  17. I was thinking that lending was effectively down to this sort of level already. It would be the only real explanation for mortgage lending to be so low. The banks have rather belatedly remember where the risk is and are lending accordingly. The market will not pick up until prices fall and / or risk appetite rises so that they are back in-line. Trouble is if the market looks like overshooting that banks could be in for more shocks... Moving targets make for an interesting life.
  18. Can I just point out that you are comparing this time around with 70's, 80's and 90's data. Those crashes were associated with economic recessions. There is growing evidence that this is a depression in the making. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...howtopic=106750 In which case you need to factor in mass job loses and house prices falling for a much long period of time. We are living through a historic event that historians will talk about in the far future just like we talk about the tulip mania...
  19. I have noticed that properties are selling in my area Bath. The market is much reduced from 2007 but nevertheless there are far more STC on Property Bee than I have seen for quite sometime. Whilst this is frustrating (as I would like to buy at a sensible level sooner rather than later) I draw comfort from the thought that if there must be a bull trap then lets get it over and done with. The sooner the last bulls get roasted the sooner we will get to the panic / capitulation stages. Like Donkey said,"Are we there yet?" "NO!"
  20. They are inevitably underestimating the falls. Most pundits seem to underestimate how much the market moves up or down. My guestimate is still for a drop of 50% or more from the peak. Give it another 3 or 4 months and we will be half way there.
  21. I heard this on the radio on Monday or Tuesday... If i remember correctly they were talking about UK banks exposure to countries like the Ukraine. That's a country of 30 million plus people and it sits astride all the gass supplies from Russia to Europe. If the Ukraine goes down it will not just be the banks that get mullered... There could be serious geopolictical issues if our glorious leaders get it wrong. On passed experience,"We're doomed, Captain Mannering, doomed."
  22. We have been sent three boxes of energy saving bulbs for free by three different organisations just recently. Would have been great if we hadn't already replaced all our standard bulbs three years ago. Got a cupboard off the things now. Probably never have to buy another bulb until I retire! Assuming they have a good shelf life, of course
  23. Cash in their ISA, stop paying into their pension funds etc...
  24. The point is these are probably local businesses shedding employees. These will just not hit te news at all, until they show up in the overall stats. This is just one insurance man in a very small city. Just how many people are loosing their jobs... By the way Mrs FTBagain was made redundent just before Xmas. Although there are a number of promising opportunities. She is a nurse and according to press reports that is the one 'business' that is still recruiting. So fingers crossed.
  25. During the conversation about how bad things were he indicated that he was getting about 5 enquiries a week from people who had lost their jobs. This is the Bath area. We have not had that many big local firms go down lately so I recon small businesses must be shedding jobs real fast. Sad but this is just getting started - Green Shoots my a***.
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