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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by FTBagain

  1. I agree. Countries have defaulted aplenty in the past and as soon as there is a change in circumstances, a chance to make money, 'investors' pile in. Some are already moving to invest in Zim for Gods sake, "not for the faint hearted" according to MoneyWeek. So for Greece it is all about, pride and pain. Which option is the least painful, pay up or default and does that pain out way national pride. I suspect we are getting very close to the pain limits. Anyway there are already suggestions that they are buying back their paper at huge discounts on the open market, in effect cancelling the debt at well below face value - default in all but name.
  2. Agreed. I think we need a state to default and throw the losses back onto the risk takers. Quickest way to cancel out the moral hazard issue. To a certain extent the Greeks may already be in default. They are reportedly buying back some of their own debt at 40 to 50% discount, in effect cancelling it. Seems that they have decided to use some of the EU money to reduce the medium term problem. Bondholders who are capitulating are giving the Greeks a chance to default without actually saying so. Sooner or later someone will find out the risk takers...
  3. Nothing in the News this morning. Markets don't seem too fussed either. I wonder if Spiegal's 'source' was entirely accurate?
  4. Martin Ellis quoted on the BBC as Saying: "There are signs that house sales are stabilising albeit at a level lower than the historical average." Aren't the monthly sales fingers circa 40k at the moment, when they were over 80k - 90k at the peak of the boom? I read somewhere that the market needed sales of about 70k per month to stabilise. That would suggest that prices are going to continue to fall if sales are significantly below that level. Martin Ellis' quote basically suggests to me that prices will continue to fall...
  5. From what I've read you would need an awful lot of prison space...
  6. Yeh, I noticed that as well. Looks like we may have caught them up on time at least, although I would guess we have much further to go on value. Race to the bottom it seems. Lets hope it is a case of the hare and tortoise...
  7. You're welcome. By the way got Simon Cowell's number I'll get me coat...
  8. It was in the printed mag. I'll scan it and post it. I'll be back
  9. It cannot be this way for ever. Sooner or later the injustice of the situation will force a reaction. Either through the ballot box as in Finland or in the streets as in the Middle East. Either way sooner of later state support for the banks will have to be withdrawn as ordinary people realise they are being robbed to keep the rich living in the style to which they have become accustomed. Iceland has already shown the way, but they are small enough to be ignored. Now if Greece were to openly default and survive then many would ask why not us. The Greeks are currently buying back their own bonds at 40 to 50% discount, in effect cancelling the debt. It is a default in all but name. Bond holders some where are taking big haircuts already so the process has already started. Bankers are going to get hurt it just depends on how much pain they get.
  10. If the MPC puts up interest rates house prices are toast. If they do not then the pound sinks and we import inflation (remember all those dollar priced commodities and Chinese wages rising) and home owners are squeezed increasing downward pressure on house prices. Neither option is quick (IR will rise only slowly unless we get another black Wednesday) and in both cases house prices are going down. Either way the HPC is still on. By the way saw a great graph of the US housing market in MoneyWeek today. Prices (corrected for inflation) are not even back to the 1990's level yet and they were at the top end of the long term price range...
  11. I've used that system myself. A couple of working days I believe. Welcome to the bank holiday weekend. You should see your money in the account Wednesday at the latest if I remember rightly.
  12. I was thinking about this last night. Does this not add up to a default? The result certainly seems to be the same as a formal default, namely, the bond loaders take a hair cut. Losses of 40 to 50% on government bonds, that is going to hurt someone (German bankds). The clever thing is, as far as the nation involved is concerned, they get they cancel the debt without the stigma of a formal default. Makes you wonder why a few more nations don't try to pull the same trick. Just a few well placed comments from the politicos about how the debt is tooooo much, bond prices fall a quick in and out with as much spare cash as possible and you get to cancel some of your debt. Assumes that you've got some spare cash, of course, enter the bail out money? That would be rough justice, using German government money (on favourable terms of course) to buy back bonds sold to German banks at a 50% discount. Seems that is what the Greeks are doing, anyway.
  13. German banks. Read an artical the other day, the German banks have been lending money to certain countries who then buy BMW's etc... Sounds familar? Think China / USA...
  14. No one wants to be the first. Once one defaults watch the others follow suit...
  15. Indeed, and when we start to generate statistics like the US, there'll be alot of very scared people.
  16. God I had forgotten him. Used to be some real hum dinger threads when he got going... Bath has two Uni's and is full of students in term time. If things do get bad number of students falling as well as fewer tourists and I suspect prices could get hit badly. O yeah and the other bigger employer in the city - civil service. Oops
  17. At what point do these companies run into trouble - 80% occupancy rates? After all their profits are probably made in the last few percent. The question is how many businesses are on the edge?
  18. Gold is hitting new records today, so someone is taking note. Also Greek and Spanish 10 year bond yields bounced off new highs today. It the case of Greek bonds that was just over 16%!!! They are sleep walking into default. The daft thing is they could have defaulted months ago, handed the pain back to the risk takers rather than their own tax payers, and if Iceland is anything to go on they could have been on the way back by now. The bonus could have been a more contrite Germany when they realised that their mircle economy was based on another money go round...
  19. Last time the UK government actually covered deposits above the then compensation limit if I remember rightly (can anyone confirm that?). In any event I can't see that happening this time around so anything over the limit is at severe risk IMO. I have seen some analysis in various pages today that suggest that German banks are going to take a hit as they are seriously exposed to Greek debt. Basically Germany lent to the Greeks who went out and bought BMW's etc. Maybe the German economic miracle isn't such a miracle after all. More of a Ponzi scheme perhaps?
  20. Interesting artical on The Curious Capitalist: http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2011/04/18/the-s-p-goes-bearish-on-the-u-s/ Really quite bearish, basically suggests that the US is as capable of going belly up as any other Nation State. Also check out the second comment at the end of the artical...classic head in the sand mentality it seems.
  21. Anyone know why the Pound is falling against the dollar. You'd have though UK debt had been downgraded...or has it? By the way here are the 10 year bond yeilds for the PIGS; Portugal - 9.08% +0.08 Ireland - 9.75% +0.07 Greece - 14.55% +0.72 Spain - 5.55% +0.13 Looks like the markets expect Greece to default, no surprise there.
  22. Yeh! The silly CB's sold their gold at the bottom. The Bank of England @ Gordos behest sold near perfectly at the bottom. They are all holding or buying more now that the price is at or close to record highs. Strange ain't it... Personnaly I think CB's selling is a long term buy signal.
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