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FTBagain

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Everything posted by FTBagain

  1. Interesting point about the Olympics. I wonder how much of the recent London price rally has been down to the 2012 effect. Could be interesting next July / August in London at least...
  2. I first spotted this story on the BBC, but cannot find it now. Here is a link to the same on ZeroHedge http://www.zerohedge.com/news/behind-scenes-liquidity-scramble-europe-one-bank-borrows-500mm-emergency-cash-ecb Bank crisis round two anyone!
  3. The first element of competition is between EA's trying to get the instruction. This forces the price up when: The market turn over is very high (pre crash) The market volumes are very low (post crash, pre fear / panic stages) Until volumes rise initial asking prices will contune to rise or fall only slowly. What the market need is for interest rates to rise, funding to get squeezed even further or and banks to lose their forbearance. A nice big fat sovereign debt crisis would do the trick, especially if it turned into a currency crisis as well...
  4. As I understand it both parties are so far apart on this that there is a possibility of a technical default. Stephanie Flanders has a good artical on it today. Seems there is an outside chance that the US could default in 3 weeks time! Now that would be interesting times...
  5. Peston has been very bearish lately, particularly on Greece. He seems to be piling up the pressure / evidence that UK banks are not out of the woods yet. If the rest of the EU banking system is in similar straights, and behaviour of the German and French governments over the Greek crisis suggests that it is, then another credit crunch seems inevitable. Indeed I noted that Soros has waded in saying as much. This is all going to go to rats and it could be very quick when it final happens. Eye of the storm, springs to mind.
  6. Give'm a break at least they got there in the end, there are some who still don't get it
  7. Could this be the first inflation busting pay dispute that the MPC have so feared? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13863341 As far as I can remember this is the first significant private sector dispute. I know the numbers taking part are small, but it is high profile.
  8. Just found this on the BBC website. Greece: Voluntary bank help would be a default So the Greeks are being boxed into a corner. The rates agencies are scuppering the deal. Start the chant - "Default, default, default...." Inerestingly, gold made a one of those spiky moves upwards just after the news came out. Suggests that some in the markets are less than impressed the the rates agencies might actually be working against the chances of a deal being done.
  9. A good find, very interesting and backed with OECD data. It has always been ordinary people who get shafted, but this time it seems they are fighting back. I so hope they default. Our lives will get harder, in the short term, but in the longer term perhaps we can change it around and even out the power. We can at least hope and work towards that. Last November I got made redundent as my company had to cut costs in the face of bank pressure. I am now doing voluntary work for an economic think tank looking at way to improve fairness and economic justice. It has been a cathartic experience and I am enjoying the work, but it doesn't pay the bills, as yet. But I still hope the Greeks default. The system needs changing and the sooner it happens the better for all and out of turmoil springs change. I have never thought of myself as a radical, but I am beginning to think that perhaps there is a something of the radical in me trying to get out. There is simply far too much injustice in the world, the Arabs started it and now the Southern Europeans are taking up the challenge. When will it be our turn?
  10. Personally, I think bondholders should take the risk, but I also think that it is unfair that the small private bondholders should be treated any different to big institutional holders. In fact it could be argued that as the big institutions have access to greater resources they should be able to manage risk more effectively than a single small investor and therefore deserve to get less back as they should have undertaken proper due diligence and on going risk reviews. To me this smacks of another forced bailout of the big guys by the little guys. At least it is not being dumped on the un-involved tax payer this time, which is a step in the right direction IMO. I guess no one said that this world was just.
  11. The problem with focussing on productivity is that it ignores resource costs. If your resource costs start to climb faster than your productivity gains your profits get squeezed and that debt pile starts to look a whole lot bigger...
  12. To be fair Germany has a huge export based economy so they could probably get by with running a deficit for quite sometime, provided that export economy keeps running ahead. The problem is they need countries like Greece to buy their goods. Sooner or later the wheels come off. Many economists say all they (and the Chinese) need to do is rebalance their economies to increase local consumption. A bit like Ireland then. If the economists want to know where that leads just look at the deficit graph for Ireland, that is truely scary. The whole globalist economy seems to be one huge Ponzi scheme.
  13. An interesting interactive graph from the BBC. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13366011 The UK deficit is as bad as Greece's. Even Germany is breaking the 'limits'. As for Ireland, well see for yourselves... Somebody, somewhere is going to default, it's inevitable. Default or revolution.
  14. Sorry double post due to browser hanging.
  15. Yup. Any impact on the housing market is going to be via reduced lending as the banks get hit with more bad debts. If Greece does default, which is looking increasingly likely, the banks will get hurt. As I have said before the bailout was not about bailing out Greece, it was about saving the banks, notably German and French banks, but also some Brit banks. When Greece goes down, others are likely to follow IMO. In Spain the protests are significant if understated (reported) at this stage. Sooner or later the politicians will be held to book and when that starts to happen they will be less willing to protect their friends the bankers and bond holders. We've had a Arab spring how about an European Autumn...
  16. Yes but not all of those will be sold in a given timeframe. To understand the impact on the market you need to know the timeframe of the sell of (two to three years according to the article) and look at how many houses you would normally expect to be sold over that time. It could represent a significant percentage increase in supply. However, I suspect the real importance of this is the fact that NAMA are selling at all. The article seems to suggest that others are selling their stocks as well, they mentioned Lloyds and RBS. If these banks are selling off their stacks (and we have seen a lot of 'empty' houses on the market around Bath and Bristol) then at the very least prices are unlikely to rise anytime soon. It also suggests that the banks are expecting more bad news, perhaps a soveriegn bond default, and are trying to convert liabilities / assets to cash inorder to better resist the next sh*t storm. This ain't over yet, not by along way...
  17. Given the situation with the banks robbing the tax payer etc, how about a French style revolution...
  18. It had everything to do with expressing discontent with the current political system IMO, which is why I voted Yes. Any change was better than no change given where we are, if for no other reason that it would signal greater engagement with the political process, even if only briefly. As for a referendum on bails outs, no chance, would be nice though. Right now we are being fleeced from every which way and we get very little say in the matter. As has been pointed out if you protest you're a loon, if you don't you're happy with your lot. Heads I win, tails you lose. It needs to change. We need greater accountability. Our local, national focussed politics are no match for the global forces currently at work. Not sure where that takes us mind, but we need a sensible and intelligent discussion find and test out ideas. No chance there either...
  19. +1 Although it could happen sooner rather than later. The Greeks are the most likely to default IMO because, as you say, we have a year of evidence, so do the Greek people and they are not clearly not happy. The question is can the government survive? I have checked up and it seems that there is no need for an election for a few years yet, so until the Greeks take to the streets in such numbers as to make the country ungovernable or there are sufficient by-elections to topple the government, then Greece will drift deeper and deeper into the mire. The evidence suggests that the best way forward for Greece is default, it worked for Iceland apparently. There is an awful lot of nepotism in Greek politics apparently so the Greek people may feel that enough is enough on more than one level. Arab Spring spreads to southern Europe anyone?
  20. It's all down to Easter. As you were. Nothing to worry about its only a temporary blip.
  21. We have, it is just that it has not been as severe as in the US. You are right to point to the foreclosure policy. Thanks to the 'dust bowl' of the 1930's, US law states that the most that a bank (or creditor) can expect on foreclosure is what the property sold for. Any outstanding is a loss. Given that, you'd have thought that US lenders would have been somewhat more diligent... Crash suggests something sudden and fast. Not really a good word for a drop in house prices. I've been on this site since 2005 and some even longer and I am still waiting for prices to return to something approaching sensible...
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