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Everything posted by FTBagain

  1. No need. Monthly will probably do (ONS up dates stats monthly). The other approach is simply watch the mortgage lenders criteria. The moment they drop their multiples the index drops. So who is going to watch Charcol. They could find lots of HPC'ers lurking.
  2. With what do I buy the land? The trouble with big shocks to the financial system is it is hard to predict whether it will be inflationary or deflationary, or even if I can get my money out of a bank that has just collapsed.
  3. "readjustment" way toooo late for that. What this artical shows is that there are way too many fingers on way too many triggers. The herding effect is currently just limited to specific situations such as this one and the Bear Sterns case last week. But how many "specific cases" in one week would t take to trigger a general rush for the exits. It sounds like this is a smallish Italian bank that has been brought close and relatively quickly to the edge of collapse. What would happen if there was a general rush for the exits on these CDO's? how many banks would go to the wall. Seven time total global GDP! Who would / could pay that off? No one IMHO. We have seen money created out of nothing and many get 'rich' as a result. Soon that FIAT money will get destroyed by debt default and many (right across the board) will loose their shirts.
  4. Good find Crash. This bit caught my eye. And this.... Imagine the impact of the same spiral impacting on the full seven time global GDP.
  5. And yet the same bunch urge the BoE not to raise rates. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6260140.stm Cake and eat it spring to mind. Or have they been over doing the leveraged take overs prehaps.
  6. I noted this quote that seemed to be suggesting that the price drop range should be considered over the last 76 years. Normally we consider the last run up in prices '96 to today and the long term trend, when we discuss how far they could fall. This analysis gives the 40% to 60% ranges typically suggested by the arch bears. But if (and given the above discussion on Elliot Waves it is a big IF) he is right then do we need to think of possibly bigger drops? The log scale shows the trend lines to be 100,000 to 300,000 ish at todays prices. To break out of the trendlines we would need drops of greater than 60%. Could the US provide insights as to where we are heading? For example, how steep is the US price drop over the next few months, certainly the news just keeps getting more and more bearish. Could globalisation provide the extra power to the vicious circle of recession? Certainly it appears that CDO's could amplify any credit crunch. I only raise the point because up until now I have thought of the 40% to 60% range as representing the bottom and it would take 5 years or so to get there.
  7. Or is it that £14.2b of borrowed money is driving growth. This is not a real boom any more (assuming it ever was). It is merely living beyond ones' means. Sooner or later there will be a reconing.....
  8. Agree with everything you say, but in a globalised economy the rising price of oil will hit everone eventually. OK the isolated short term effect of rising fuel may not be the big impact this time around, but along side rising Chinese wages... Just checked the price records for last year. According to Wikipedia oil peaked at $78.40 on 13 July. http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2..._Short_Term.png As you can see the price fell quickly from the peak. Will be interesting to see if the same happens this year or if there is something else going on. Saudi is still producing below their peak...
  9. Noticed this on the BBC http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6254810.stm Oil over $70 pb. Fuel prices have been edging up recently as well. Now if I remember rightly last years' oil spike was in May. By the end of June the price had fallen back and was on a steady slide all the way back to $55 pb by about November time (ish). We could soon seen a cross over point ie a positive (inflationary) value between this years' oil price and last years'. If the current gradual trend continues then that inflationary gap could get quite significant within a couple of months. That should quite an impact on the 'upside' risks for inflation in the 'medium term'.
  10. Forecasting is guessing supported by expensive modeling. Who can tell what tomorrow will bring? But if you want a best guess then check out these comments. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=50278 There is a lot of talk in there about reducing disposable income. This I would suggest is a good indicator that the economy is close to or is slowing. This could be the initial reduction in GDP. Hence events could be following the same old pattern.
  11. Financial can move slowly so the word 'shock' is probably a bit mis used in this context, but this all sounds like the beginning of the 'shoc' that many of the Central Bankers are so worried about. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6253752.stm Door stable horse closing bolted after.... just rearrange.
  12. NO! Not in my area - Bath. There is a real lack of property on the market. There are indications that the BTL brigade are still buying stuff up. There is a new development on the south side of the city. It is supposed to be affordable housing, they are tiny little boxes, guess how much. £250, 000 Staggering. I believe that Bath will crash, because the local economy is mainly low paid jobs in the tourist industry, with a reducing number of MOD jobs. The local market is being driven by outside speculative money, once the supply of cheap money dries up the market will head south, but it ain't happening yet.
  13. Nice artical. I have been doing the contrarian thing with a company on the stock market. They are close to moving into profit so I am hoping that it will be a good play.
  14. Found this interesting artical via TOD. http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=33010 It seems that consumer countries are piling the pressure on to OPEC to increase production. However, OPEC are saying NO! The excuse is that investment in bio-fuels could ultimately drive demand for their product away. This seems like an excuse to me. Higer oil prices will encourage more investment in alternative energy sources, so why not increase crude production to reduce prices and disrupt the development of the competition. Unless, of course they cannot increase production! Can you imagine the impact on the global markets is OPEC said,"Sorry we cannot increase our production because we are running out! " In other words Saudi is close to or has peaked! If this is the case and other big producerss, such as Mexico and the North Sea continue to decline before new production can be developed then oil prices are heading higher. It could be as soon as this year! Witness the low gasoline inventories in the US and this.... Inflation may fall in the short term but I think this last quote suggests that it may make a strong come back pretty soon..
  15. I wonder what impact this will have on rental yields, as effectively these companies could become major land lords, at least in the short term (I suspect many will only be around in the short term).
  16. UK Current swap rates have risen quite a bit in the last week. http://www.swap-rates.com/UKSwap.html And that is an impressive inverted yield curve! And another thing, there were a view points made in the week regarding the ending of 2 year fixed rate mortgages. The numbers were 820 000 between the end of August and December (if I remember rightly). The point is that all the calculations of the increases in fixed rates were based on the current interest rates. Well as we can see current rates are rising, so anyone who is a bit late getting their new deal sorted is likely to have an even harder time than the papers were saying last week. It is still 6ish weeks to August.
  17. One thing I have noted this year is that as the BoE raises the base rate by 0.25% it seems that the market (swap Rates?) rise 0.25% as well maintaining the gap between where we currently are and market future expectations. It is a moving target. It is almost as if the market is hoping that the next BoE hike will be the last. Then when we get the hike and nothing really changes everyone realises that there will be another one in the future because inflation is being so stubborn. I think the markets are serially underestimating where this long term interest rate cycle could end.
  18. good point nicely put Cheered me up no end.
  19. Not here in Bath either. I keep a close watch on the numbers of 3 bed houses on Rightmove and the numbers are still falling.
  20. Up until recently MEW has kept the tills ringing, but I think that will slow down as the impacts of the recent interest rate rises filter through. IMHO I think retailers are going to get squashed between falling real wages and rising real inflation.
  21. I wonder whether this wil off set the fall in gas prices? http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6669399.stm I am always surprised when the Fed and BoE seem to discount energy prices from the 'core' inflation figures. One of the accepted reasons for the run away inflation of the late 70's and early 80's was the fact that they ignored the longer term effects of high energy prices. When those effects fed through into the wider economy it was too late. History repeating itself?
  22. As some of you may know I read the 'The Oil Drum'. It is a news and technical blog site for all things oil. There are many very clever and well informed people over there and I would recommend you go and have a read. This artical was at the top of the blog this morning. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2560#more It is focused on the US gasoline (petrol) prices. Why is this important? This artical on the BBC will put it into context. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6670703.stm The Oil Drum artical talks about the refined Gasoline stocks in the US. Basicaly it seems that the US has enjoyed low gas prices towards the end of last year partly because the record highs earlier in the year caused a significant fall in demand which meant the inventories could be built up again thus rebalancing the supply demand equation. Unfortunately, what has occured this time is that prices have been slow to respond to the fall in inventories so demand has remained high. Further, there have been a few refineries shut down for maintenance which has made the run down even more extreme, the result is that the US is likely to enter the start of the key annual driving season (the Memorial Day Holiday) well below the average range for gas inventories. Why is this important? Well...... In short the Fed could be facing a consumer slow down and rising inflation by the end of the year, and remember gasoline can be moved around the global as well as crude oil.
  23. zceb90 Nice post. I posted the following on a previous thread, started by OnlyMe. http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...;hl=food+prices I would recomend 'The Oil Drum'. They have a number of analytical articals on there at the moment that highlight just how bad things could be in Saudi. What is more they have had a number of oil industry geologists comment on some of their work, who seem to know what they are talking about. Basically the story is that peak oil may well have been in 2005, although the jury is still out. The bottom line is we will only know when we look back. Why? Because the Saudis won't tell us at the time. The interesting thing is that oil prices have indeed been rising and production apparently cannot keep up and there is no specific geopolitical issue (such as an Arab Isreali confrontation) to spice things up either. Interesting times.
  24. Blast missed it. Mind he has been moderately bearish for sometime now. What is more it appears to be rubbing off on some of his colleagues.
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