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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by FTBagain

  1. It's starting, like many on here said, in the BLT flats and the contagion will spread right across the market.
  2. Credit tightening, Credit tightening, Credit tightening. The crunch is building.
  3. FTBagain


    I wish I could same the same for Bath...
  4. This is the practical impact of risk getting factored back into the lending process. As the CDO crisis gathers pace many would be borrowers are going to get told to take a hike.
  5. A good artical from BBC about why foods prices are rising. Two main reasons: Direct food demand from China Biofuels absorbing food production Good news for the farmers, well up until there is no fuel for the tractors or modern (oil based) fertilisers anyway... http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6909469.stm (Sorry if this has been posted before, I did look, honest )
  6. I am beginning to think the same thing. There is so much credit / debt. None of this money is actually representative of anything 'real'. The Hedge funds / CDO game has generated a derivative market that is thought to be (no body really knows to the true figure apparently) SEVEN time total global GDP! I think we will see an inflationary 'blip' the triggers interest rates and hence market risk to increase (this process is already undetway. Then we will see a sharp deflationary impact as all the banks call in the loans and find that there is nothing of value behind them . This will mean that much of the money recently 'created' will get destoried in write off's. Asset price will, at least in the short term, collapse and bingo deflation. Remember Japan in the 1990's.
  7. Is that 10% YoY by December 2007? If so you're toast. Sorry, but I think you got carried away there. Now if you had said December 2008 you'd be laughing IMO.
  8. Yep! I am begining to think we are heading into a deflationary spiral. 7 times global GDP of leveraged positions looks like it is going to simple get revalued to nothing. That seems like a huge deflation to me. This is shaping up to be more of a 1929 scenario. Back then it was caused by banks playing on the stock market, this time it is derivatives.
  9. No it could just suggest that the markets are doing what the Central Banks do... ignore the price of oil because it makes them feel good. I think world inflation is on the up and many in the market are simply still in the over optimistic stage, 'excessive exurburance' is it called?
  10. I think CDO is already history. From investment banks to rich and not so rich (pension funds) hedge fund investors are all going to get hit. The danager is that if the situation gets serious then individuals who have not only kept up their mortgage payments but are capable of continuing to do so will find their debt being called in if their lender gets into trouble. To date, as far as I can tell, what we have seen is that such individuals have seen their mortgages being taken on by other banks, but the banks are likely to run out of funds to take on these 'orphan' mortgages if lender failures become too numerous. If that happens I believe the creditor of the failed lender can call in the outstanding mortgages, as assets of the failed lender, to recover what they are owed. When this starts to happen you will know we are on the edge of a serious financial crisis.
  11. If the illigations do start coming in the other banks and hedge funds are going to wish they had never invented CDO's. They are going to take fire from all sides and have the concept of Risk rammed well and truely down their greedy, stupid necks. It won't just be small guy that gets hurt either!
  12. Good find I have been wondering how to rate banks. Mind you I am not so sure about the quality S&P ratings system.
  13. As you say inflation is still strong, only CPI is down and that is loaded with imported goads. If the strong performance of the pound cannot bring CPI down now. What will happen when the pound corrects, as it inevitably will? CPI is going to head skywards in the not too distant future IMHO, and rates will chase it all the way up.
  14. It has taken the US builders 12months or there abouts to go for boom to bust. The UK builders stocks started their slide a couple of months or so ago. So about May next year...
  15. There has been a lot of debate on here recently about the possible impact of the dodgy dealings of Investment banks with these 'clever' instruments like CDO's. The general consensus is that if it all goes really badly wrong we could see some banks go under as the subprime debt poison spreads. Like many on I savings and I am trying to make my little nest egg work for me, so I am looking for the best rates. Any ideas on how I may find out / judge the likely exposure of a savings bank to the CDO poison?
  16. Yeh! Guess who will pay for it. Those of us who are saving and being prudent.
  17. 10 out of 10 for infantile(ness) I bet the bank just luuuv you (Thanks for cheering me up sossij)
  18. Not this time! If there is another increase in August.....
  19. I read an artical somewhere recently (from another thread on here) that suggested that thanks to the credit and valuation processes around these things (CDO's and CDS's) there is a brief opportuntiy to cash in before the true value becomes widely known. Probably too late already http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editoria.../2007/0703.html
  20. My impression too. Of course LCC are probably desperate. Wild animals and corners and all that. I suspect that Implode have more funds than LCC to fight this, given LCC's backers are running for the hills. Sad thought though. Whose pension fund is going to be left holding LCC's bonds.
  21. I have been thinking about it also. My fund is a big company fund (formerly a part of the Civil Service Fund). The trustees have Standard Life amougst others managing the fund. My pension is (was ) a good one. Taken me 18 years to build up (18 years in the same out fit usually means being on a lower pay scale :angry: so it has cost me to do it) and the trustees could easily be in the process of blowing it.
  22. Subprime with a capital S. Us Bears have been saying for a long time that the subprime fall out that America is experiencing will hit our shores at somepoint. The Bulls and VI's have always maintained that lending criteria are much tighter in the the UK. Kensington have just made liers of them all. Our subprime is as bad or worse than the US subprime, that is patently obvious know. My worry is who is going to or have been buying the debt / risk from Kensington? I would bet it will be the likes of our big pension fund managers like Nowwich Union or Standard Life. The latter manage my pension This is all getting way out of hand. The new world of Hedge funds and Financial Instruments is so completely lacking in transparency the regulators have been left way out in the cold and we are all exposed.
  23. The AOL frontpage is hardly the most notable 'news' outlet so this headline is is really quite telling. No i am a saver not an over indulgent debtor. :angry: Things are changing. Momentum is turning and it is turning very strongly down.
  24. It could accelerate real quick. 3 failed in June 2 have failed by the end of the first week of July. Still plenty of time to beat Junes number.
  25. Yeh! Spotted that as well. I suspect he's not the only senior banker thinking that. Even Merv has been saying things are bad, only he has to use coded laugage so has not to up set folk with reality. I think the whole economy is toast. This lot are lambs to the slaughter.
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