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Everything posted by FTBagain

  1. Signed it. This country has never had a very good record of looking after veterans. Sad really, considering we tend to hold them in high regard, when we need them. A noble 1000th post X-QUORK.
  2. Both the NASDAQ and DOW are about 1% at the moment according to CNN. If they close that far down Monday will be another interesting day, the tren is strongly down. Also this interesting artical on the CNN business page. http://money.cnn.com/2007/07/27/markets/cr...sion=2007072711 Saved the best bit right to the end. If the trades / markets are expecting a fall, it is only a matter of when IMO.
  3. I didn't hold my breath, I read too slow. Great post
  4. Just looked at CNN Money. They are reporting that the DOW went past -400 and that 'Trading Curbs were put in place late in the morning. Interestingly their charts have flatlined as well
  5. Just got back after dinner, DOW down another 100 points and the Yen strengthing further. If this keeps up for another 3 or 4 days the markets are serious trouble. My guess is down again tomorrow, but Monday could well see a rally. My feeling is that we are not quiet into the really serious Credit Crunch territory just yet, but...
  6. According to the Beeb the Dollar to Yen rate has just gone south of 119. Carry trade could indeed be unwinding. A lot of retired Japanese are going to wake up and find themselves staring at big loses. If they move to unwind their positions the carry trade is toast. However, they do have a tendancy to do their own thing, much to the irritation of the Investment Banks apparently. Could be very inetresting tomorrow morning.
  7. That suonded like some threads on here. Are we losing are uniqueness.
  8. OK, about three months ago I thought the Yen trade was unwinding so I cashed in half my gold then. It didn't and I've been waiting to jump back ever since. Also, I missed the $750 /oz peak as well. Muppet (me that is) I am still ahead though - just
  9. I sold about half my position in gold just before the main drop about an hour ago. I'm long term bull on gold, but I have long thought that if the Yen carry trade starts to unwind everything, including gold, would get hit in the short term. Looking good so far.
  10. Too soon just yet, but it could be a good and Merry Christmas... There bet I'm first to say that this year.
  11. Yeh, next couple of weeks will confirm DrBubb's bellweather. If they go on past the level at which they bouced back in September then I would say we are following the US pattern and it is all down hill from here. At last.
  12. The CML publish UK half yearly repossession number on 3 August. Should be interesting. I am expecting the main action to be H1 2008 as the repossessions tend to lag the market by 12 months or so. Sadly those big number represent a lot of lives turned up side down.
  13. Thiss artical has a nice chart half way down looking at elliptical trends. Unfortunately the way they drew the chart the DOW should have crashed back in May Interesting though. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article806.html May be their breakdown is coming a few months late.
  14. I have never sworn at anyone on this forum, but I came really close this time. I was brought up in the Thames valley (Bourne End) and my folks still live there. Closing the barrier to flood Oxford. Just how many locks and weirs are there between the Barrier and Oxford? Just goes to show how foolish and ignorant of basic physics most people are. Sad indictment of our education system.
  15. The height of the English Channel can change by up to 5 or 6m if the tides and winds are in the right direction. Look up the history books about why East Anglia and Holland flooded abck in the '50 I think.
  16. Nice of him to put some of our money back. Share the only thing he could find to spend it on was booze...
  17. No buyers Looking promising for us Bears.
  18. I understand from my reading on TOD that oil field (and hence global oil) production tend to peak after 50 to 60% of URR has been recoverd. Saudi has apparently reached 67% at least on the best quality oil. Also, when you look at that graph it 'looks' like we have taken half of the URR out. We cannot be far from peak. In any event the numbers on Saudi do not look good and when Saudi peaks, world peaks.
  19. WOW! I hadn't realised that the Bear Stearns hedge fund got whacked by AA and AAA grade CDO's. That is supposed to be the least risky part of the CDO. No wonder the market has slowed. Anyone with BBB or below must be really scared.
  20. Nice to see we can laugh in the face of adversity.
  21. If inflation does start to spiral out of control then the first thing that will happen is that the Central Banks will drive up the base rates. It will take them awhile to realise that we really are entering a new paradigm, only not a very nice cosy one in which we all get rich by sitting on a behinds, rather a nasty one in which the foundations of our current economic model are well and truely trashed. 98% of all the good and services we use rely on oil. It has been postulated that with out oil (transport, fertilisers) the human population could not have gone from about 1B to 6.5b in 150 years. IMO the ending of the Oil Age will not be a sudden explosive armageddon rather a long slow drawn out period of economic shocks and change.
  22. I like the graph they are using for their symbol. Sadly, they should have had their inaugural meeting about tens ago if they wanted to actually do something about. From TJ on The Oil Drum. Sums it up really.
  23. The following artical on The Oil Drum uses data drawn from official sources such as the IEA (International Energy Authority). Here is the Summary and a couple of the easier to understand graphs. Full artical: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2716 I am still studying the full text, there is a lot of it, but these three graphs tell the main story. This is fig 1 refered to in the summary. The data for the last two or three years suggest that we are on a plateau. There only two ways to go from here. Up (bulls) or down (bears). The bears case is supported by the following two figures. This is fig 4 refered to in the summary. It highlights the gap between the amount of oil we discover each year and how much we use. (One thing to remember about the discovered oil is that we can only recover something like 40% of the total in the field. I am not sure if the data refers to recoverable or total oil.) The main thing to note is that the last big discovery was in 1965, 42 years ago. This is fig 6 referred to in the summary. It highlights that the US production peaked 42 years after the last big discovery in the US. Have a pleasant evening.
  24. Worked for me. Great artical! The message is getting out there. The interesting thing to note is that the BLT brigade seem to be very willing to bail out... I thought they were in it for the long term. They're toast.
  25. I think oil could be an interesting one to watch. Some folk think that we could move into a cross over condition where demand starts to out strip current supply capability. If that does happen, all bets are off and we are into serious demand destruction territory.
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