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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by FTBagain

  1. Agreed and you have summed it up very nicely. I think the point that some are trying make, including myself, is that it could not have worked without the credit agencies. These agencies were giving high quality ratings to paper that their customer banks wanted to sell on. Remember, it is the fact the the agencies were supposed to be acting as independant assessors of the CDO's etc. that gave the whole system creadence. That creadence started to come apart when the ratings agencies failed to re-rate investments when everyone could see things were going wrong. The agencies played a crucial role in this situation and they were far from independent.
  2. I agree. NR were successful up starts and the big boys let them set themselves up for a huge fall. However, the big boys were not that far behind so you will not hear too much crowing. The credit agencies were at the heart of the scam, they just happen to be based in the US (but could have been based in London) hence the Johnny Foreigner reactions. One thing to remember though NR were the beneficaries of the dodgy credit ratings, because they were selling the debt. I wonder who owns the Northern Rock debt? I bet they are nervous right now.
  3. These are the ones who are in the subprime market openly. I suspect many, if not all, are exposed with some unaware that they are. It is called fraud and I suspect that there has been alot of that in recent years. All banks have been putting pressure on staff to maintain market share and make ever greater profits. Worse, at the sametime they have being lower standards, not just lending standards but also internal checking loan decisions according to many stories and reports. RN is just the start. There will be others and I strongly suspect there will be criminal cases as well. The internet issue at NR are a worry. An internet bank just claims 'server problems' and no one knows what is really going on. A high street bank closing the door at the wrong time and you know there is a problem...
  4. Robert Preston on the BBC website does some pretty good analysis. http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/ In summary the Rock will have to put up just about everything they have a collateral to cover a worste case scenario. If the panic continues, and based on some of the stories and points made elsewhere on HPC I think it could do so for sometime yet, then the Rock could well be cleaned out.
  5. That is a very good question. Look at the pound. One months inflation data was enough for the markets to mark the pound down, let alone an actual cut in rates. If the Fed cuts their base rate the markets could chose to hammer the dollar, but nothing is certain in these troubled times.
  6. Hurricane Dean looks like it is going to be a Cat2 storm when it passes through or very close to Cantrell, Mexico's biggest oil field, and the third(?) biggest field in the world. http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane...&stormNum=3 Strange the markets are just not responding yet?
  7. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ This is starting to look like a 'big' one. $80 to $90 a barrel next?
  8. It is not just about the quantity of oil, but also the quality of the oil. We have been consuming the best quality, 'light' oils for years because these are the easiest to extract and refine. Much of the remaining oil is heavier, 'sour' oil, difficult to extract and refine. It also tends to give a much poorer energy return than the lighter grades. Whether we are or are not at Peak will only be confirmed in about five to ten years time. If we wait that long and find that we are (or rather were) at peak in 2006/07 it will probably be too late to respond.
  9. About 7 (SEVEN) times GLOBAL GDP. That is apparently what the derivatives market is 'worth'. Well was worth. I suspect it is in the process of getting revalued. probably to its true physical worth. Just how much do you get for a few hundred tonnes of scrap paper these days.
  10. Probably not. I remember reading an artical sometime ago that stated that that type of information was not being kept.
  11. They are a small company so will not have much impact as such, but this tells the whole story really;
  12. If the slow down is severe enough there could be signficant job losses. It is not just shops that will get hurt, gyms, food and drink industries will get hurt as well.
  13. It is still a two way issue. If China did nuke to dollar, every export market they have would get whacked in the fallout. They just do not yet have the home consumer market to take up the slack. So no one wins. More likely they would fire off a couple of warning shots and hope things did not get out of hand. Interesting times.
  14. Credit tightening and jobs cuts in the same statement. So much for containing the melt down to the Sub-prime mortgage market.
  15. That artical could have been written today. For collateral read house.
  16. Thanks to the info, alabala. 48,000 jobs lost since October and this is probably only the start. One of the reasons the markets are so jittery at the moment is that the US economy is not generating the new jobs as fast at it was just a few months ago. This could give a clue as to why. Job losses in housing related industries. Just goes to show that one market can impact on another simply by changing sentiment.
  17. This really puts it into perspective. This is truely just getting underway. The credit tightening is likely to get very severe. The big banks are already causing the US mortgage companies serious pain by limiting or with holding their credit lines. The question is just how much damage to global credit will this do?
  18. On Bloomberg. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home And it is not just Sub-prime. People are loosing there jobs as well. Can anyone remember how many of the 'new' jobs in the US are tied to the housing market?
  19. The markets will have their wicked way with the unsuspecting. It always does. This time next year I think your smug colleague will be a very tense colleague. Has he/she MEW'ed at all?
  20. So not only are the price of commodities rising top record levels but the cost of moving them is also. Inflationary pressures are building all the time. sooner or later... The inflation figurs come out this week don't they?
  21. Another one bites the dust. - Queen This is getting serious, very serious. I wonder how long it will be before one of the big boys get hurt and issues a profit warning.
  22. Why not? It all depends on how exposed they are, surely? As far as Ii can tell just about any bank I can name appears to have got involved in this credit / debt swapping game. The derivatives market is thought (in some quarters) to be valued at seven times GLOBAL GDP. If that lot gets written off I cannot see how we can avoid seeing some big 'global' banks going under.
  23. I've noticed this as well. Every time I see big movements on the SM's I go check the Yen value. If it is appreciating I take note. I noted an artical sometime ago (cann't find now) in which a Investment Bank trader stated that the Japanese housewives were consistantly betting against the banks and winning. Nice to see the little players winning for a change but I expect them to get hurt as I think the Yen will snap back some day catch many off guard.
  24. First of all to produce enough fuel for are current transport use would require using so much land that it is likely that many would starve. Nuclear would take too ong to get up to speed. We simply do not have the capacity to build the stations fast enough (lack of trained engineers, fuel, etc). As you point out yourself may be by 2050, but what about the 30 year gap! If you want trained professionals go to The Oil Drum. This story from The New York Times and highlighted at the top of todays Oil Drum, looks particularly relevant to this discussion. http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/29/world/af...amp;oref=slogin
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