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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by FTBagain

  1. Not true. Look around you. Aparently 98% of the goods and services we use rely on oil, either as a raw material or for distrubtion. We have simply been cushioned by cheap Chinese and Indian labour rates. When these deflationary effects are cancelled out by their own rising wages we will feel the full effects of the oil price rises.
  2. Yeh! Behaviors are the key to economics. An oft forgotten point. People will keep on going until they get seriously hurt. then they will dramatically change the way they operate. Usually they will over react too.
  3. This artical on the HPC news blog. http://www.moneyweb.co.za/mw/view/mw/en/pa...2&sn=Detail This guy is missing the point completely IMO. It is not a question of will the economy survive any particular price. This assumes that the price of oil can somehow stablise at that level without some change in fundemental conditions. This is rubbish. The price of oil is rising because the balance between supply and demand is, at this point in time, changing. The oil market has been a supply dominated market up until now one (ie one in which supply can and often does out strip demand). This has meant that the supplies have been able to control price by controlling the amount of oil supplied to the market. Now that demand is close to overtaking supply we are shifting into a demand driven market. Price is controlled largely by demand. If you want cheaper oil you will need to reduce demand. (Unless the oil producers find lots more oil and quickly.) Demand, in the current economic system can only be reduced by demand destruction, or to put it another way, a recession. In short the econmoy will just get on going, at full speed until it hits a recession. Rather like the Titanic crossing the Atlantic at full speed... So if the economy can with stand $100 per barrel it will just keep on going, driving up the price of oil, until it can no longer cope and we enter a recession of one form or another. IMO anyway.
  4. Now this is a really telling anecdote for me. This suggests that people have been scared off taking a gamble on property! If this is the case then not only are the banks tighening lending criteria, but borrower sentiment may have changed significantly and suddenly. This would indicate that demand is being hit twice, loss of credit supply (enabler) and loss of desire (driver). In short sellers will be getting squeezed from both sides. Meat in a sandwich, a toastie sandwich.
  5. Saw this buried in a NYT artical on our news blog The banks are not out of the woods yet. There is a looong way to go yet. Full artical http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/19/business...amp;oref=slogin
  6. The first domino has already fallen. And get this... First time I have seen that. Foreigners have effectively stopped buying US debt. That's it game over...
  7. The count is up to 233 at the moment. I really think this is one worth supporting guys. As tax payers do we really want the government rewarding silly risk taking just to line bankers pockets with over inflated bonuses so they can price us out of the housing market?
  8. They need the money, and they are not the only ones'. The trouble is investment / savings decisions are not going to be made merely by looking at the interest rate offered. Not after NR. Folk are going to think about the strength of the institution in question as well. B+B, A&L and of course NR are now possibly the preserve of the brave or uninformed (although they would have to have been in a pretty remote spot not to have heard about the run on NR!).
  9. So the deals are being closed now that the decision has been made, hence the drop, yes? I must find out how to long and short on the markets. Thanks.
  10. This might cheer you up. I just checked the Stirling price of gold on BullionVault. DOWN. It just currencies (think of Gold as a currency) adjusting to the new world order.
  11. That's what I thought, but the Yen is taking an even bigger beating than the Dollar. If that keeps up then the unwinding of the Yen Dollar carry trade could reverse. Any ideas why the Yen is falling?
  12. Actually if you look back at historic data (I'll try to put a graph together another time) it is not unusual for bases rate to fall after HPC gets underway. Impact is normally zero, at least on the housing market. I suspect that the inter bank rates won't change much for awhile either, so mortgage rates may not actually change that much. Bankers have just had the biggest scare of their lives and I bet they are busily reassessing risk. The markets are having a reprieve, but we are now definately post boom. You do not have a runs on banks and Central Banks cutting base rates by 50 base points in a boom... The Yen drop still puzzles though
  13. Dollar is down against the euro, but heading UP strongly against the Yen. Why? Yen is down against the £ as well. How can cutting US rates be bad for the Yen?
  14. The appears to be in a gentle decline. Was that rise on thin volumes?
  15. What time do they publish their rate decision. I would not be surprised if they do not cut. After Paulson was in talking Brown and Darling. I do not usually go in for conspiracy theories, but a bit of Anglo Saxon cooperation and cordination is not without precedent.
  16. It is not just about NR. The government has set a dangerous example here. They are effectively saying that the Tax Payer will under write risk within the financial system. Why should any of us pay those thiefing over paid bankers to pinch / loose our money in the first place. NO WAY. There is a good reason why Bankers rhymes with a well known Anglo Saxon expletive! :angry:
  17. Come on guys, The count has been 135 for ten minutes. Where are you?
  18. Highlighted on our home page. http://petitions.pm.gov.uk/NoCityBailout/ Tell yer friends.
  19. This might have something to do with it. http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6998620.stm Looks like Applegarth won't go down alone.
  20. I believe you can keep your tax-free status by going into a new provider, filling in some forms and they then transfer the ISA for you. A&L have to play ball, apparently.
  21. It is not just prices going up, supplies are lower as well. If these lower supplies continue to worsen fuel prices are heading even higher. It seems OPEC have given up trying to control crude prices.
  22. The way I think of it is this... If it is an average UK family home then 3 to 3.5 times (local?) average salary would be a reasonable price for that house. If it is massively over that then you have to ask yourself about the risk you are taking on. Remember you could be heading into negative equity. Besides do you really want to spend the next 30 years paying for someone else's life in the sun? Having worked out the likely risks and there likely cost to you, price your offer. If the vendor comes back saying silly offer, tell him about the risks you have identified. That will demonstrate that you are smarter than the average numpty that has helped create this situation in the first place. Always good to have an edge.
  23. Go in very low and walk away if they don't take it. You will not be the only one doing that. Sadly I think you are a little early in the cycle, the real fear has not yet set in, but the troubles at Nouthern Rock will go a long way to ushering in the fear factor I would say. Look for the stressed ventors. Ask the EA why they are moving. The EA will need the sale so they might well give away the info you need to judge strategy. All very cloak and dagger I know, but anything that gives you an edge.
  24. Interesting guys. I'm going to be watching B+B closely in the next few days and weeks.
  25. Yeh, well done guys. What a week. Rightmove could get next week off to a great start as well!!
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