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Posts posted by FTBagain

  1. Saw this buried away on the business section of BBC News. A good example of a business in trouble as a result of the banking crisis.

    The crisis at European refiner Petroplus deepened on Thursday after lenders extended a freeze on its borrowing.


    Therefore the firm is also talking to oil companies to secure supplies of oil - and funds.

    "We will do everything we can to avoid bankruptcy, an alternative solution lies in an oil company that could give us oil but also credit lines. Negotiations are under way," said chief executive Jean-Paul Vettier.

    Not much hope there then.


  2. Haliwide NSA is now down 2.5% in the two months since the Top Call, which I originally made 7 months ago on GEI. I'm looking for this slide to continue, followed by a short, sharp spring bounce starting April time. Bearish sentiment has been washed out very quickly in Q4, which should pave the way for further falls later next year... I hope.

    Could serious bearish sentiment this quarter and / or a significant 'event' in the Eurozone mute that bounce back you are predicting?

  3. We have seen this tale many times before, but the threatened collapse has never really materialised. Of course, if the European economy does go into recession and takes ours down with it then rising unemployment could see a lot of families go under. Really sad for them, especially if there are children involved, but it will remind us that debt is bad, very bad, and saving is good.

    This would likely see an increase in forced sellers on the market, but there is no sign of that yet, nor if I am honest any time soon.

  4. Libor is starting to get more widely noticed.

    Bullionvault highlighted it in their daily around up today and it is being reported as having hit 1.09% today by bankrate.com



    The Bullainvault report also highlights that the banks are selling or lending their gold out to raise cash to cover risks elsewhere. Credit Crunch II developing?

  5. Actually not, no. Ratings agencies get the kind of access to a company that would often make them insider traders if they tried to act on it separately from publishing their ratings.

    And they are still no better than the rest of us at predicting risks... which I thought was the point of your original point, hence my comment. I.e. if they had better predictive abilities they would be ahead of everyone else, even without the access, was the point I was trying to make. Poorly, obviously.

    Anyway, my poor effort of a prediction is that the banks are doomed, I tellya their doomed. :)

  6. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-21096180.html

    Picture four shows the fire, but where the flue is.....well I can't see how they've done it.

    I'm not a building expert, but check out picture 9. There appears to be a flue sticking up to the right of the chimney. It's pretty small.

    Mind you it looks like an awful set up to me. Lots of burn, scould and if that big pipe / flue were bashed or damaged CO1 / CO2 / smoke risks I would have thought.

  7. True enough. As far as I can tell, the only thing they really do is save the trouble of having to figure out that a company is already obviously f*cked, they have no more predictive ability than anyone else.

    If they did have more predictive ability than anyone else they'd be traders and richer than anyone else.

    But to get back to the banks, I kinda think that the focus is beginning to move in their direction again. I wonder how long it will be before we see more issues in that direction. Here's an interesting little snippet from Robert Peston.

    A number of eurozone banks are as reliant on official central-bank funding as Northern Rock became in the autumn of 2007.


  8. ..slipped in ready for next weeks trading... :rolleyes:

    Yup, and the markets will have had a chance to read the details of the deal. It'll be interesting to see if they think the Euro will still be around in a years time or whether they'll pitch it into the history books.

    IMF has already come out and said it is not enough.


    Interesting week ahead...

  9. Would it need to get to 3.5% to cause a major problem? The debt matrix has changed and I'd bet that it wouldn't even get close to 3.5% before we had a systemic crisis.

    I agree that the debt matrix has changed, but I would suggest that the rate reflects the risk so we are still some way from risk levels seen after the fall of Lehmans.

    To be fair the a more accurate measure would be the spread between the Central Bank base rates and the Libor. Base rates were a little higher when Lehman went up in smoke so it is likely that the banking system would freeze up at something below 3.5% given the current ultra low base rates. Precisely, what that rate is only time will tell. The only thing we can say is that the trend is not good...

  10. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-12-09/wary-european-ceos-move-cash-to-germany-to-protect-against-breakup-risk.html

    ZH Take

    In the current climate ensuring your money is spread about seems a very sensible decision.

    Trust if fast evaporating, looks like everyone is starting to batten down the hatches.

    I read somewhere recently that the main reason that the Euro still had any kind of value on the Forex is Euro based companies / individuals selling assets and moving them back into the Eurozone. Didn't seem to make much sence at the time, unless they were covering losses / risks elesewhere. This highlights another possible reason, anticipation of the return of the German Mark.

    Cameron, could yet have made a good decision...

  11. About givingwhatyoucan:

    For me that kind of data series isn't great. To line everyone up by wage and then assess your position in the line takes no account of the cost of living. Agree we are massively lucky to live in the west, but this stat is for me not helpful.

    About taxing the rich:

    the problem is lots of people taking a little bit too much. Taxing the very rich just won't cut it when it comes to a sustainable society. It would of course help and I'm not condoning tax avoidance. I'm not keen on the idea that if we "soak the rich" all our problems will be over.

    I agree, but what really p1sses me off is that many of these ultra rich manage to avoid paying tax at all or get away paying very little at all. It is the feel that we are NOT in it together that gets me. I would suggest that if we are going to pay income tax, then it should be the same for all. No loop holes, no tax havens just a flat rate for everyone. Then we would be sharing the load.

    Chances of that actually happening, when members of the cabinet including, allegedly, the chancellor, zero.


    These figgure all suggest that the rich are very good at building up their wealth but not so good at spending it. So much for the 'trickle down effect'. <_<

  12. Sounds like he is trying to cut numbers without having to waste capital on redundancy payments. Which is fair enough by me, because we tax payers are already in way too deep with the other lame duck banks without having to bail out Barclays, so fire away I say.

    Having said it also sounds like he has quite a few "jerks" to get shot of. Which would be funny if it wasn't for the fact that the Banks have got us all in such deep water.

    Better late than never I guess.

  13. Here are the latest weekly LIBOR rates according to "this is money".

    * 6 December: 1.05%

    * 30 November: 1.04%

    * 24 November: 1.03%

    * 17 November: 1.01%

    * 10 November: 1.00%

    * 24 October: 0.98%

    * 17 October: 0.97%

    * 10 October: 0.96%

    * 3 October: 0.95%

    Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-1645325/LIBOR-Latest-inter-bank-lending-rate-charts.html#ixzz1g9U5gORM

    Not exactly post Lehman levels yet, it got to about 3.5 % according to this artical from FT Alphaville.


    I would suggest that we have away to go yet before things get really interesting...

  14. More infor mation. Seems the Fed is concerned about contagion.

    European banking stocks plummeted Thursday, led downwards by French giant Societe Generale, after the US Federal Reserve reportedly expressed concerns over their liquidity.

    Traders were in part reacting to a report in the Wall Street Journal that the Fed is concerned European banks might be forced to repatriate funds from US subsidiaries in the event of a liquidity shortage.

    "Federal and state regulators, signalling their growing worry that Europe's debt crisis could spill into the US banking system, are intensifying their scrutiny of the US arms of Europe's biggest banks," the business daily said.


  15. If I remember rightly there were similar happenings just before Northern Rock blew up, wasn't there?

    Another question has just occured. I read somewhere that a banks share value contributed to its solvency because it affected how much it could raise via a share issue. So could this bank be under pressure because of the battering bank shares are currently taking?

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