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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by jocohen

  1. This would mean that the crash in 12 months will be as significant as what we have already seen. This means there is still a long way to go and suggests there is no quick recovery - great thats what we need. The slow death of the country
  2. This site is quite brilliant but the only problem is that is making me depressed. I know there are some trying to talk things up, which I would normally support but in these peoples case its for personal gain and greed. It clear that we should plan for a 3-5 year downturn, anything soon in recovery will be a welcome surprise
  3. that was an interesting analysis. I have noticed the huge increase in rental properties available which has happened over the last 6 weeks. This must be normal houseowners truggling to afford their mortgages and deciding to move in with parents and generate cash with woth rental income. Does this not indicate a huge amount of stock that will come to market if there is another push eg rise in interest rates etc
  4. The news is not good and is definitely getting worse, what should we do? What do we want from property - profiteering or homes for our children and a chance to build communities.
  5. that's very scary talk didn't understand most of it - derivatives what the heck is that about.looks like its about to drag America down if all he's talking about is true
  6. what i am saying is exactly that - that's why the bottom needs to be reached as soon as possible (ASAP) so we as a nation can move on
  7. whatever the drop is it needs to be reached ASAP. the article seems about right there is some way to go maybe a few more years but it'll will destroy so much British industry in the process So many of us need a buoyant housing market with confident young couples
  8. we're not at depression yet - when i go under then thats depression! until then its just a really bad recession which needs to be survived
  9. the pound could bounce if the euro collapses http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article9296.html
  10. can i ask how do you know what it sold for. Access to land registry - the only definitive way of knowing takes 2-3 months to be widely available? I know a few people who are downgrading from very large houses may have the cash and need to move straight away will still pay over the odds but thats seems to be a very small segment. Certainly in terms of high end furniture 2nd hand, i've not seen a huge increase in people trying to sell things back to me. I'm now getting the impression that people are trying to hold on to their homes and BTL investments hoping for a miracle. But what miracle can be expected? QE is going to be disasterous for house sellers as well if it goes wrong and if it works it'll take 12 months for us to see the effects
  11. the blatent greed that is seething from some of the people on this site is quite disturbing. Housing is a waste of resources - housing should be treated as secondary utility. Government or now the market should ensure tight controls on salary mutilples and banks should be very careful about lending to those that can't afford it. At least rental prices are plumetting in my part of london and over the next 12-18 months if interest rates rise with inflationary pressures then we may see the start of the bottoming out of this market. until it does its true bottom then the economy will be stuck in the rut its in. And the longer it goes on the more jobs are lost adding to the recession. Wake up people, we have to change our attitude to housing or we will all suffer
  12. if you look at the huge increase in the number of houses available for rent in many areas it suggests there are a large number of people who are hoping the market turns around in the next 6-12 months. it means there will be a steady sttream of sellers as they struggle to hold on and pay for their houses especially as rental prices plummet. A relative has been given a 20% discount on his yearly rent without even asking because the landlord is scared of losing a tenant. Even if QE does cause high inflation in 12-18 months there will be huge increases in interest rates and a decrease in credit suggesting that hyperinflation may worsen the situation for house sellers. We need to move on from our obsession with homes as investment - houses should be homes nothing else. if you want to invest it should be in safe banks or high risk high yield investment groups ( without government subsidy). Its obvious from the site that people want to get back to making easy money, it will destroy us if we get back to that
  13. on the issue of the pound - it'll be ok but it'll be saved by good luck. some of the southern european countries are in an even more dire state then us and expect this to put huge divisions between th germans and the rest. it might lead to the dissolution of the euro. but the costs and problems in italy and spain are huge. They have really embraced the socialist model for work - which is fine when you can finance it but now it has to be paid for everyone is concerned where the mone is going to come from. Nows the time for the uk to support its skilled small businesses - yes thats my line but we can repair some of those lost skills
  14. one thing that would be interesting to explain is what the huge increase in property available to rent is going to make to house prices and more importantly local areas. I live in a nice part of south london and have been pleased that our area seems the least affected. however i've been told by a neighbour and i've confirmed the updated figure that the no. of houses available to buy in 0.5 miles around our house has gone up from 18 a year ago to about 130; homes for rent have gone from 35 to 100. there are about 700-800 homes in this half mile radius. now considering the asking prices have hardly gone down - how do you interpret this? is this very pleasant area about to be wrecked by empty unletable houses and the problems that brings. Or is it it a reflection that in nice areas people are hoping to ride out the storm for longer and this has given the false impression that some areas have been relatively resistant to the crash?
  15. the most depressing thing is realising the bottom of the house price market will be for several years. In the last recession as soon as a true equilibrium had been found then sales of household related goods started to increase reflecting a change in the mood. we are so far away from that and isn't the lesson from the past that we need to get to the bottom pronto not drag it our for so long and drag out the recession and turn it into a depression Golden moments are very personal, so many young couples seem to be waiting until they can afford decent homes. I get the impression that credit easing to those with small deposits won't be around for 2-5 years and the bottom of the housing market is a way off yet. it interesting that the bears on this site still seems obsessed by profit and letting returns. isn't this the greed and culture that caused these problems. we need rid of this short termism. Property is not productive and takes money from entrepreneurs. when will the government bite the bullet and introduce these reforms they keep talking about
  16. This thread has some interesting points: Does QE introdeuced to counteract deflation risk inflation? Yes but no-one knows. How soon will we know the effects - at least 12-24 months looking at the history of zimbabwe, germany etc So in terms of buying property now much that I would like to see it happen - people should wait for a year at least to see what is happening. Most the qe money is more companies thereby stablising job losses and aiming for economic growth again in 12 months + time. So even here the arguments about buying now are premature. Unemployment is rising rapidly and household finances are getting tighter. There are so many properties out there for rent that that rental income must be collapsing. The losers will continue to be BTLs and those who are holding on with blind optimism. The other loser are people loke me who are independent small manufacturers who find our suppliers in trouble with worsening credit flow ( will QE help?) and then falling sales of our goods. Its seems likely that I'll let a few highly skilled craftsman go in the next few months and that'll will have an impact on their lives. Its fairly obvious that until we reach the true bottom of the market rapidly then we as a nation cannot move forward. Government attempts to slow the house price collapse and estate agents and other similar parties obsession with talking up the market will do nothing but confuse people. The government needs to give clear direction. Homes should not be investments - they should be seen as homes and those who wish to profit should pay a tax premium. This way the large no. of FTB's may have the confidence to enter the market at a reasonable price and then start building lives which means consuming goods and then the economy will get moving. This slow 2yr+ decline in house prices that has still to come will destroy many businesses worsening the market
  17. It has been pointed out in both the ft and on this site that houseprices correlate very strongly with umemployment - its quite apparent now that it'll take 9-18 months before umemployment reaches its peak and therefore house prices. Is that a reasonable interpretation. This does not sound good. I think its time the government was honest and told us everything now and not give us this bad news in a drip dripo fashion
  18. the truth is no one knows what will happen in 5 years time. its clear from the thousands of experts - no-one has the faintest. I can't look 5 years ahead- i have 6-12 months to survive. I need new optimistic buyers surely government should be encouraging us to find the bottom of the market as soon as possible. not slowing down the slump. we need to look to the future, nationalise the banks do whatever but every month things are getting worse not better
  19. taleb is only ranting because hes been on about this for over 12 years and we're only listening now because we're up **** creek without a paddle. maybe we should take heed about his solution to the problem
  20. I saw him on newsnight and he was angry. But to be fair he was angry at a couple of academics who doing the great retrospective explanation thing. He's been talking about these bankrupt structures for over 10 years and now people are listening to him he's making it clear whos he's annoyed at. Thats way he has no time for the charlatans such benanke and most academic economists who demonstrate no knowledge of even basic stats
  21. unfortunately house prices have a long way to fall - I wish they would hurry up because those of us in the real economy need help
  22. is hsbs really safe? we need all banks renationalised. All shares should be valued to zero and lets restart banking. The economy can't be stuck waiting for financiers
  23. Taleb is a genius polymath and has been espounding his theory on the inbuilt corruption in banking for at least 10 years. I heard him talk about risk 10 years ago talking about the in built structural errors in banking. We need him in the uk re designing the banking system
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