Game_Over
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Posts posted by Game_Over
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It isn’t a matter of a blip, then things will be back to normal. Normal was what existed before ie house prices rising roughly in line with wages and general inflation.
The peak of house prices in 2007 was based on historically very low interest rates and even then millions of people were having to buy their food, clothing, holidays & cars etc on credit.
Not only that, people weren't even paying the interest on their credit cards let alone paying off the debt, they were just rolling their debts over into '0% interest on balance transfer' deals.
Anyone who thinks that this type of 'economy' is sustainable and that we can ever return to this situation is clearly themselves insane
Game Over ……..
Rant Over………..
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'Owning' a home is a necessity.
'Owning' a car is not.
And as far as 'owning' goes - anyone with an interest only mortgage is, in effect, just paying rent on a property 'owned' by a bank or building society.
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Anyone who thinks prices will not fall at least 50% from peak in real terms needs to explain why they think this will not be the case.
All 'growth' in the economy over the last 10 years or so has been a Nu Labour con, this is reflected in the FTSE which now stands at a 12 year low.
Average house prices have already fallen circa 20% and the recession has not even started yet. We are about to go through the worst depression since the 1930's, unemployment is set to rocket, Government spending is totally unsustainable at current levels and public sector debt and liabilities are out of control.
Sorry, but anyone who thinks house prices will only fall 30% given the depth of the economic abyss into which we are now plunging is clearly delusional and in total denial.
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What will interest rates be in 2010 when the government is trying to fund a massive deficit in the public finances and QE has been in full swing for a year or so?
And you can already buy a 3 bed semi in Stoke-on-Trent with an upstairs bathroom for 45K - just follow this link. On Homes under the Hammer a few months ago people were paying 60-70k for terraced houses in Stoke in need of modernisation - sheer madness.
and search for 3 bed properties between 0 and 100k
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In 1986 bought first house - a 1960's 3 bedroom semi in the north west of England for 27K which was approx 3.5 times a basic clerical wage of about 8k.
Similar job in this area now pays 16k or about double, but asking price for the same semi now 160k or about 6 times higher.
16k times 3.5 = 56k but I thing 70 - 80k would be reasonable, which funnily enough is about 50% off peak prices.
The economy now is in far worse shape than it was in the 80's with much more pain to come, so I can't see any reason why prices will not return to these levels.
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Given that prices have already fallen circa 20% and the recession hasn't even started yet I think expecting house prices to only fall 30% is being a tad optimistic.
Plus a one bedroomed flat isn't a first step on the property ladder - it's a millstone IMHO.
Although AVERAGE prices might only fall 50%ish - many BTL flat type properties have already fallen by more than this amount.
There was a TV program on a few months ago where a 'young professional' had bought a flat in a new development in London for well over £200k. Very few flats were sold and basically the block has now been taken over by squatters, prostitutes and drug dealers - flat now 'worth' in the region of 75k if anyone would buy it.
There was massive fraud involved in the valuation and selling of these flats and many of these developments will now probably remain uncompleted or half occupied for years and may end up having to be demolished. Those that escape demolition will end up as social dumping grounds and anyone who bought at peak prices will never get more than 30% of their money back in real terms – that’s a 70% fall from peak prices.
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Not sure why people were panicking yesterday. HBOS figures should clearly be treated with suspicion at the present time for obvious reasons and even if they are genuine, they would not be significant in the current economic climate. In previous crashes house prices have never fallen relentlessly month on month, there are always 'rallies' in the market that can last a month or two or even longer - classic bull traps.
The bottom line is that the fundamental economic factors that caused the bubble to burst have not gone away - in fact the indicators are continuing to worsen - as a result the only way house prices are likely to go in 2009 is DOWN substantially.
In my opinion it will be at least 2 years before this recession fully unwinds and 10 to 20 years before the economy returns to 2007 levels. The fundamentals are just so bad - and the recovery cannot even begin until we have massive structural changes in the economy which themselves will require huge political and social upheaval.
Anyone who thinks there will be another house price bubble in these circumstances is clearly deluded IMHO.
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Anyone who bought before the boom and is lucky enough to ride out the inevitable economic and political turmoil that is going to ensue over the next 10 years or so will almost certainly ‘make’ money.
I suppose the question is how much - and no one can answer that question.
The other question is whether they would have ‘made’ more money or been happier doing something else with their money/lives for ten to twenty years.
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Looks as though I 'got away' with my first post.
Although to be honest I was hoping for an argument with someone convinced they are intelligent rather than just lucky.
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My observations on this 'discussion' are that it is obviously possible to make money out of property - it is also equally obvious that it is possible to lose money 'investing' in property.
In any investment the difference between making or losing money is simply down to buying and selling at the right time.
In the vast majority of cases this is just down to 'dumb luck' - but of course those who make money in this way always see themselves as talented, farsighted or intelligent rather than just lucky.
For those of you reading who have been lucky so far - I suggest you keep your fingers firmly crossed.
The City was full of talented, farsighted intelligent people - until their luck ran out.
Post Bubble Prices?
in House prices and the economy
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I put 'owning' in inverted comma's deliberately and also stated that anyone with an interest only mortgage was - in effect renting, with the downside that they are responsible for any negative equity in a falling market.
All human beings need a home, therefore it is a necessity.
A car is not a necessity.