Game_Over

Hamish thinks that the Scotland is a Celtic tiger, built on prudence and hard work, whereas the reality is that it is Scottish Banks, namely RBS and BOS that have wrecked the British economy. And when the Sh*t really hits the fan and the economy of England can no longer support Brown's massive gerrymandering cash hand outs to Scotland, the Scottish economy and house prices will 'head South' faster than you can say Hamish McTavish.

Well it's pretty obvious that places that saw the biggest rises will see the biggest falls. It's also obvious that property in small countries that relied heavily on financial services eg Scotland will be hit disproportionately, also London & the SE generally will suffer in this recession much more than the Midlands and the north for the same reason. In previous recessions it was grim up North, In this depression it is going to be grim in the South and Scotland IMHO.

People keep ignoring my posts, why is this? Discuss.

You don't end child poverty by paying people to have loads of kids - you just perpetuate it. - OBVIOUS. And if a man cannot earn enough - AFTER TAX to support a wife and family then then the system is morally bankrupt. That is the situation we are in now - taxes are too high to pay for benefits that are too high - it is really not worth anyone on average wages who has children working. And I speak from experience. I will not get another job until I get more money working than I get paid for not working - and that will not happen until the British people realise that SOCIALISM DOES NOT WORK - literally. I have had 5 years of leisure (up to now), paid for to a large extent by the tax payer, but I am angry because I would like to live in a country where an honest person doing an honest days work can earn enough to have a decent life. I want this for myself, but mostly I want it for my kids and I am going to vote Conservative at the next election in the probably vain hope that they will slash benefits and cut taxes. The only politician who genuinely did anything to help the WORKING class in this country was Margaret Thatcher. Discuss.

Cutting interest rates is actually sucking money out of the economy AND capital out of banks and building societies. For every person with a tracker mortgage there are many times more people who rely on interest from savings to live. People who rely on interest from savings are now spending less and spending their capital. All the decisions being made now are politically NOT economically motivated. Nu Labour are trying desperately to create some sort of mini boom. They know very well that it will make things much worse in the long run, but what the Hell - if they lose the election they won't care anyway and if they win they can fill their boots for another 5 years. It's a no brainer really.

There are tens of thousands of empty properties in London. There seems to be an undercurrent of opinion that this crash will only affect the North and that London and the SE are immune from economic realities. Well this time London and the SE are going to be hit the hardest IMO. The massive property boom in London was due almost entirely to the growth in the financial services sector and employment in this sector is going to be decimated in this depression. Property in ANY city which had a boom based on financial services will fall far more than the average - I think its inevitable.

There was a TV program last year about Slough. The immigrant population were living in 'Garages' built at the bottom of people's gardens - thousands of them. Now if I put a Wendy house in MY garden the council would come down on me like a ton of bricks, but if someone has 4 people living in a 'garage' at the bottom of their garden that's fine apparently. I suppose if the local authority demolished all these 'garages' they would then have a statutory obligation to house the ex-occupants, so the people who built these shanty towns are just raking in the money. And as far as I remember we also used to have laws about overcrowding. :angry:

There isn't any 'pent up' demand because most of the indigenous population are only having one or two children i.e less than replacement level and many people are now living with their parents who have 3 or 4 bed houses. The people who are having 5 or 6 kids either live on council estates or come from societies where people are used to living 20 to a house. The immigrants are living 20 to a house, in sheds at the bottom of people's gardens, in tents or sleeping rough. There is NO PENT UP DEMAND And 1 million empty properties are going to have to be sold sooner or later and when they are prices will fall even further. Now where's SIBLEY.

This is a very interesting article. People are hanging onto these properties hoping that prices will start rising again. So if we do get a slight upturn in property values there could be a stampede to sell. What effect would 1 million properties coming onto the market have on prices I wonder?

I like the 'reduced by 93%' above the photo That's probably what they'll have to do to sell them!!! The developer of some flats in a nearby town went bust about 6 months ago and everyone lost their deposit. The site has stood untouched for 6 months with scaffolding up, now the scaffolding has just been taken down. I don't think these flats will be completed for years, if ever.

INJIN Your reasoning though 'interesting' is totally flawed I'm afraid. Theft from a shop is not a victimless crime, the shoplifter is in effect stealing the labour of the person who created the goods, not the profits of the supermarket. What if everything in shops were stolen, then obviously the people whose labour created the goods would receive no return for their labour and would starve. Also if the state did not lock up thieves then people would take extreme action to protect their property. Say for example saturday was declared a 'no punishment for any crime day' and someone decided to take your car. You would then presumably say 'if you take my car, I will assault you' a crime which would go unpunished on that day. The only problem is the person taking your car would then reply 'If you assault me, I will stab you', you would then presumably steal a gun. What you are in effect proposing is Anarchy. In such a World no one would be safe and only the strong would survive. Actually - that sounds pretty much like what is happening in large parts of the country at the moment when I think about it. The answer - BUILD MORE PRISONS and LOCK UP CRIMINALS.

I think petty crime would drop to very low levels if for example people were given a prison sentence for shop lifting. Basically we need more prison spaces. One option would be to move all foreign prisoners to a camp on a Scottish Island, that would create about 12,000 places immediately. And Yes these are obviously very dangerous times, more so in Europe than here I think, they have a rather unfortunate track record in tackling these kind of situations.

They only riot because they are well fed, clothed and housed. If the money stopped they would be too busy trying to put food on the table and shoes on their feet to riot - that's why all the World's poor aren't constantly rioting. Most of the anti-capitalist rioters were middle-class drop outs, dossing around on benefits allegedly fighting to bring down a system which enables them to live the lives they do. Do you think they see the irony? I don't think so.

No need to force anyone to do anything, just stop paying them to do nothing. I'm pretty sure that the vast majority of people living on benefits would suddenly discover previously unknown motivation and talents if the giro cheques stopped dropping through the letter box. Of course we would have to build more prisons and arm the police before adopting this very simple but effective measure.

SIBLEY You keep suggesting that everyone who posts on this site is homeless and penniless and this is far from the case. Many already have the cash or finances to buy property but know that in this waiting game it is sellers who are going to lose out by holding on. That is why valuers are valuing property at less than people are paying and why banks are insisting on huge deposits - they know prices are going to fall. As for going out in the real World - we are heading for the worst depression this century and people like you think house prices are going to rise DREAM ON.

With respect I think Sibley is missing the point. I own (ie mortgage paid off) a 5 bed detached house, but I would be quite happy to see prices fall by 50% because I have 3 teenage children who I hope one day will be able to afford a decent home. What people like Sibley need to realize is that not everyone is entirely motivated by greed and self interest, those of us with children would actually like to see a better World for our kids even if that means we 'lose' equity in our own properties. At the end of the day, houses were never worth 2007 prices, so anyone who bought before the boom hasn't lost money, because the money never actually existed. Those who bought at peak prices have learned a valuable lesson, an expensive lesson admittedly, but a valuable lesson nonetheless.

DanDanDan You seem to be adopting exactly the right tactics in the current market. If some idiot is prepared to pay way over the odds for the property then that is most definitely their loss - not yours. I posted this on another thread My advice, for what it's worth is that I don't think anyone can make a really low offer and expect it to be accepted straight away. I think if you want a bargain you have got to be prepared to walk away, setting your heart on one particular property puts you at a massive disadvantage. Perhaps the best tactic is to put an offer on the table and state clearly that it will stand for a certain period, for example a month, after which if the sellers come back to you the offer will be lower because house prices are falling. EA's are bound to claim that there are other buyers interested in the property, to which the reply would be - well the market is flooded with unsold properties of the type you are interested in. Personally, I would never get too familiar with EA's if you are a buyer because if they know you really want a particular property or want to live in a particular street for example, them knowing this will undermine your position and cost you money. And if you make a low offer and it is immediately accepted then your offer was too high. When you are buying, make the seller sweat because it is a buyers market. Above all don't adopt the Phil Spencer approach to negotiation. Phil to EA 'my client would like to make an offer slightly less than the asking price if that's alright with you' Phil to client 'The EA says he will put the offer to the client but he's not hopeful' 2 minutes later EA calls back to say offer declined. Phil to client 'Well I really don't think you will find a better property than this and prices always go up so I suggest we call back immediately and offer the asking price' 2 minutes after that 'crack open the champagne - they've accepted the asking price' Another highly successful negotiation concluded - NOT I think the market is in a 'stand off' situation at the moment, if you don't have to buy - then wait, because sellers have more to lose the longer they hold out - not buyers. Good Luck.

My advice, for what it's worth, is that I don't think anyone can make a really low offer and expect it to be accepted straight away. I think if you want a bargain you have got to be prepared to walk away, setting your heart on one particular property puts you at a massive disadvantage. Perhaps the best tactic is to put an offer on the table and state clearly that it will stand for a certain period, for example a month, after which if the sellers come back to you the offer will be lower because house prices are falling. EA's are bound to claim that there are other buyers interested in the property, to which the reply would be - well the market is flooded with unsold properties of the type you are interested in. Personally, I would never get too familiar with EA's if you are a buyer because if they know you really want a particular property or want to live in a particular street for example, them knowing this will undermine your position and cost you money. And if you make a low offer and it is immediately accepted then your offer was too high. When you are buying, make the seller sweat because it is a buyers market. Above all don't adopt the Phil Spencer approach to negotiation. Phil to EA 'my client would like to make an offer slightly less than the asking price if that's alright with you' Phil to client 'The EA says he will put the offer to the seller but he's not hopeful' 2 minutes later EA calls back to say offer declined. Phil to client 'Well I really don't think you will find a better property than this and prices always go up so I suggest we call back immediately and offer the asking price' 2 minutes after that 'crack open the champagne - they've accepted the asking price' Another highly successful negotiation concluded - NOT

Did anyone mention 1 trillion(and counting) of unfunded public sector pensions liability? At the rate we are going everyone is going to work for the Government and we will all have extremely generous gold-plated non-contributory pensions. The only problem is there will be no one left to pay for them. I believe this is what happened in the Soviet Union and any other Socialist state that has ever existed.

I usually state 'in real terms' because obviously if we get inflation then prices could end up back at 2007 levels in a few years time. At the moment we are being told to expect deflation - but I don't buy this at all. I think talk of deflation is just a smokescreen to prepare the way for 'Quantitative Easing'. If we do get inflation, we will also get high interest rates so savings will not necessarily be eroded. I tied my savings up late last year for 2 years at 6.7% so if inflation falls to 1/2% my savings will be growing at 3 times the rate of inflation. Compared to housing my savings will be growing at an enormous rate. Personally I think that in 2 years time inflation will probably be above 6.7% and that interest rates will also be higher but at the moment I am getting a return of 2 to 3 times the general rate of inflation. I have been lurking for years. In 2005 I was telling my father-in-law that when the inevitable crash came it would be worse than the 1930's so he now thinks I know what is going to happen next, which I don't. The writing was on the wall well before Labour's second term victory and the 'long march' towards disaster started almost as soon as Nu Labour were elected. All 'growth' in the last 10 years or so has been a con-trick built on the largest ponzi scheme the World has ever seen. I don't know what will happen next, but one thing is certain, when the dust finally settles the World will be a very different place and I personally don't think we will ever return to the rampant greed and obscene prices of the Nu Labour 'boom' years.

Apologies for double post. This is the first topic I started and I don't like reading instructions so I posted it twice in error. I decided to start it because there are people posting on this site (you know who you are) who consider anyone predicting more than a 30% fall in average prices is a 'nutter'. Based on what I see happening at the moment and in the future I believe that anyone who thinks average house prices will only fall 30% is themselves clearly insane. In current circumstances a 50% fall in real terms is going to be viewed as a 'soft landing' IMHO. Anyway - off to bed now - to sleep, perchance to dream - of a World in which my 3 teenage kids will be able to afford a decent home one day.

I think from day 1 there was a plan to create a massive socialist client state, the idea being that so many people would owe their livelyhoods either directly or indirectly to the Labour government that no one would dare vote for any other party. The City was seen as the 'cash cow' that would pay for this project both directly through taxes and indirectly by making credit freely available thus allowing the Government to tax individuals to the maximum. It seems pretty clear now that without cheap credit, the high levels of taxation would have not been affordable or tolerated by most ordinary working people. It was all a con trick built on a ponzi scheme of epic proportions, but now the party is well and truly over and we are going to spend the next 10-20 years paying the price. :angry:

2 years ago everyone on this site was considered to be a 'nutter' I seem to recall. The new 'sane' is 30% falls in house prices apparently, however, I think 50% is now mainstream here and seen as possible but unlikely in the 'real world'. According to some posters, the new 'nutters' are apparently those predicting 70-80% falls. Well in the 'real' world some repossessed city centre flats have already sold for around 70% off peak prices. In the richest country in the World hundreds of thousands of properties have experienced falls of this magnitude. And anyone who thinks the UK economy is in better shape than the US economy and that the recession here will be shorter and less painful than that in the US is living in cloud cuckoo land. IMHO todays 'nutters' are tomorrows visionaries

2 years ago everyone on this site was considered to be a 'nutter' I seem to recall. The new 'sane' is 30% falls in house prices apparently - I think 50% is now mainstream here and seen as possible but unlikely in the 'real world'. The new 'nutters' are apparently those predicting 70-80% falls. Well in the 'real' world some repossessed city centre flats have already sold for around 70% off peak prices. In the richest country in the World hundreds of thousands of properties have experienced falls of this magnitude. And anyone who thinks the UK economy is in better shape than the US economy and that the recession here will be shorter and less painful than that in the US is living in cloud cuckoo land. IMHO

I predict that house prices and the stock market will both fall to well below their respective values when Nu Labour came to power. This prediction is based on my belief that all 'growth' in the economy since Nu Labour abandoned the previous Conservative governments tax and spending limits has been a complete con trick. Taxes have risen so high to pay for Gordon Brown's vast Socialist client state that people were buying food, clothing, holidays and cars etc on credit, only paying off the minimum then rolling over into '0% on balance transfer deals'. It was COMPLETELY OBVIOUS that this couldn't go on forever and that when the crash did come it would be truly catastrophic. Hardly anyone in this country actually contributes to wealth creation anymore - the vast majority are either in education - up to early 20's, retired - 50's onwards, economically inactive or living on benefits - about 8 million plus with many millions more working in or for the public sector. On top of that we have a completely unfunded 1 trillion pounds public sector pensions liability. Picking up on a theme in other threads, anyone who thinks average house prices will only fall 30% is clearly insane. In current circumstances a 50% fall in real terms is going to be viewed as a 'soft landing' IMHO.