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Everything posted by WATP

  1. Welcome to Scotland. I moved from Glasgow to Edinburgh last year and they joke there are more English in Edinburgh than Scots. Over 80% of my family live in England and my son for his sins supports the English and not the Scottish football team.I am not a fan of Salmond and many of his supporters are clearly Anti-English. I have no time for any of them and fired one of my senior staff who exhibited an bad attitude to English customers. Please remember that for every 1 Scot who may be a scumbag there are 2 or 3 pleasant Scots who would like nothing more than 10,000s of English turning up in Sco
  2. Is it not a little hypocritical to talk about the fact that there is no such thing as a nation state and then call all Scots scum bags? I was talking with my Swiss girlfriend last night about nations and her perception is that whilst the rest of the world likes the Scots they mostly find the English arrogant and dont like them. If I was English I would not spend my time attacking others but trying to build friendships. Their PR is horrible but they dont seem to care. I guess the Millwall mentality of the English is what will really break up the union.
  3. I am not sure who dismays me more the insular English, the crazy CyberNats or the incompetent civil servants. This thread was not started by a Scot but a retiring English civil servant who seems to be clueless about Scotland. Here in bonny Scotland there is no big enthusiasm for independence, no hoards on the streets waving Scottish flags, no burning of English businesses and we still participate in all the big British events. There will be many Olympic medals won by Scots. The UK faces probably one of its greatest economic challenges for decades next year. The City of London is in a mature
  4. My company, after a year of keeping prices the same has started to lift them in sectors where the competition is principally international. There is a huge opportunity to deflate the cost of recruitment agency margins, legal fees and payments to IFAs but when it comes to hard goods such as cars, TVs and the medical devices (we manufacture) prices are going up.
  5. The best way to think about it is that the banks lent out large amounts of money they did not have to people for mortgages. There were 2 ways to solve the problem. Either force the banks to get their money back creating a massive asset crash or print money and give it to the banks. This second idea is QE. The main downside to QE is you are debasing the currency. The second problem is you are creating a massive transfer of wealth from people who save to those who borrow. The Government has added a second leg to supporting the house prices by running a massive public deficit and spending it o
  6. As a STR and a SME owner I watch the market like a hawk. I have a few points to add to the existing discussion. 1) FTBs will be in trouble for a long time. Salaries for students if they can get a job are less now than my first salary 20 years ago. In addition they have student debt to pay off. We hired a Cambridge grad with a science 2.1 for £15k a year at Xmas and he is still with us. 2) There is a general assumption that we do not have enough housing in the UK. I am not convinced fully on this. My immediate family has 5 couples and 6 kids and own / rent 25 bedrooms in total. This is not a
  7. "We are the people" is the phrase used by the Protestant Working Class in West of Scotland to describe themselves. It is heavily tied in with Unionism and the support of Rangers. It does not suggest reading the Daily Mail, acting POSH or supporting the SNP. It is a phrase worth knowing if you ever visit a pub in Bridgeton, Larkhall or Govan.
  8. When you start issuing personal inuslts then you have lost the argument. When no-one understands your insults then you have really lost the plot. If you were a real Scot then you would understand the term WATP and not make such a stupid comment.
  9. I was brought up in Aberdeen and when I was 14 I wrote a report discussing why Scotland needed to be independent. The reason for my anger was that the British Government had just decided to situate the offices of the new British Oil Corporation in London and not in Aberdeen where all the oil was. When a minister was asked why he gave the response "that it was too important a company to be based in a small place such as Aberdeen". I now run a company in Glasgow and I am a committed unionist but I understand the real grievances of many of the older generation in Scotland. There is a level of se
  10. My brother is a doctor in Bucks who was planning to upgrade to a £1m house, down 20%, but the sale of his existing house just fallen through. Other brother is a tax inspector who is also looking to move to bigger house in Brighton but cant sell his own house. My sister is a teacher in Bradford who wants to move to better school catchment but is also having trouble selling. I work in the private sector sold in 2007, sitting on my money and renting at ever lower prices. I keep telling my family that the old game of a secure public sector job and big mortgages is coming to an end but they do
  11. Does anyone know how much the QE has impacted the gilt market? If the full £125bn of QE has been used to buy Gilts that equates to 25% of total issuance this year. If we exclude the purchases by the BOE cover would be only 1.4 and not 1.8? It seems to me that we are about to hit a wall. Gilts issuance is planned to rise even faster and the largest buyer the BOE has decided not to participate. The impact of this will be crowding out. As gilts yields rise the banks will stop trying to lend to housebuyers at 5% as they can get 4 or even 5% risk free by buying Gilts.
  12. The 0.5% rate is the spot rate while the 3.8% is on a 10 year note. You have a mismatch if you borrow short and lend long. Owners of 10 year gilts are nervous as before they could sell to the BOE but now they need to find someone else. The present QE strategy has been a transfer of wealth from the general population to owners of gilts. This is to allow the Government to borrow more money. The BOE has implicitly said it does not believe in this strategy. Who will lose from the change - banks, foreign investors and the Government who will pay more to borrow money. Who will win - you, me an
  13. The drop in £ since most of these gilts were bought would suggest that foreigners are prepared to realise their losses rather than wait about for things to get better. It also does not suggest that they are going to want to come back in and buy more gilts until the picture changes dramatically. If so the big question of the day is why has £ not fallen further? Would welcome someone who could describe a scenario for the £ to become stronger.
  14. After no increase for my staff (including me) for 18 months I am planning to impose a temporary 10% cut across the board until business recovers. As my company covers both manufacturing and services it is interesting to note that while manufacturing is doing OK services has taken a major dive. Prices are continuing to fall across the board from rent to couriers to supplies to professional services. The only area where costs are going up is taxes!!
  15. The basic case for Sterling going higher is as follows. The UK economy is more flexible than Europe. As such it will begin to adjust faster to the new reality and growth rates will be higher. This will lead to higher interest rates and a flood of foreign money. The basic case for Sterling going lower is as follows. The UK economy is in a hole as one of its main sources of income, financial services, is down for good. The economy is surviving based on the Government borrowing money from abroad through issuing Gilts. This is a short term measure which is just plugging the hole in the dam. Sonne
  16. I think the term bear is misused in this thread. There are people who think that the housing market will return to just another boring market where prices are based on real value and ability to pay. The other opinion is that the Government will create another bubble. There is no doubt that the Government has poured huge amounts of money into the system to keep prices up. This money has gone in through QE, through state run banks such as Northern Rock and through buying whole housing loan books such as B&B. Given all this action I would be amazed if there was not some impact in the market.
  17. Vauxhall have large fleet business in UK which will be hit badly if they close the UK factories. If you want to see what might happen look at the sales of Peugeot since they closed down in Ryton. They have lost 20% of their market share. Still the Germans may use some of their money to stuff the UK and drag £ even further down. As the owner of a manufacturer I should be happy at the situation as most of my income is in strong currencies such as Rmb and my expenses are in £. It is people working in the public sector and UK retail I feel sorry for. They are being paid in monopoly money.
  18. My brother has just bought a house for £1.2m down from £1.5m with a £900k mortgage from Abbey. I think he is totally bonkers personally but it ties in with a small spring bounce. There are many people who see the correction and low interest rates as an opportunity to move to their dream house. I am one of those who see two waves of price falls. The first has happened due to lack of credit. The second based on unemployment, cuts in public sector and rising interest rates has yet to happen.
  19. China (revised) You have two cows. You milk them Then you dilute the milk 100 to 1 with dirty well water Then you add some chemicals to make it look white Then you bribe the local purchaser to buy it for baby milk powder Scotland You have two cows You clone the cows to produce 100 more and let the bull go to the pub
  20. How about charging the English students fees but not anyone else in the rest of the EC. Imagine the uproar if the English did that to the Scots? My dad was a Lib Dem councillor many moons ago and he had to deal with the SNP headbangers who attacked him becase my mom was from Cornwall!! Is it any wonder that my son is a Rangers loyalist. As for the honesty of the SNP. I have just had my new business rates bill which is up 15%!! This after the SNP promised us they would cut business rates. In the last 2 years I have had meetings with both Neil and Mather who both sound like nice men but the fol
  21. Skinty, the SNP are anti English and the BNP are anti non Brits. I am not sure how this makes the SNP better and in my eyes makes them much worse. Here in Glasgow we have the SNP setting up an alliance with the Muslim population to pick on the traditional Protestant working class. I am one of the Scots who hates the SNP more than the BNP and do not see them as either inclsuive or competent but instead as power hungry and devious.
  22. That is good point which is not made enough. http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2009/apr...e-social-trends The biggest losers from the crash are the middle class, middle aged people who have bought a large house to hold them and their kids. The elderly like my parents had already begun to cash out and the youngsters never got going. This is why the press hates to talk about house price falls as journalists are part of the group taking the hit. Building more houses however they are financed will lower the value of other properties as it increases supply. Is this the government plan? The best
  23. You guys obviously know nothing about China. I have a business selling medical equipment to China and I can tell you this country is one of the only parts of the world booming. Yes they are closing down factories making cheap rubbish for US and Europe but at the same time they are investing staggering amounts into domestic infrastructure. I have a friend in Xian and they have just finished a fast train service to it from beijing in under 2 years! This is a distance of 500 miles. There are big risks in China. Corruption is rife and you can trust almost no-one. However I would take China any da
  24. I am not an expert on Polish law but it appears your money is gone. In these cases the best thing to do is normally stop paying anymore cash out. Could the Polish bank come after your UK house. Legally it depends on a huge amount of things such as the documents you signed, the laws applied to the documents and the merits of the case. The reality is that it is highly unlikely that the Polish bank will come after you as the cost in legal fees would vastly exceed any money they could hope to make. They will seize your Polish house and I doubt you will get anything back.
  25. I have just moved 2 bed flats in Wimbledon to save myself £150 a month. Actually a bit more as new flat has underground carpark space included. This is a saving of about 10%. There is a large amount of property out here to rent but prices falling only slowly. In Glasgow I rent out a flat and the market for a 2 bed has been at around £500 a month for the last 5 years. It appears there is a floor at around this level set by students and foreign workers who have been the main tenants. Rents alone would suggest prices will fall harder in the South and for bigger houses.
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