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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Shotoflight

  1. Northern Ireland economic output 'lowest in UK'http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-30412170 The construction industry continued to suffer with GVA down by almost 10%. Ulster Bank economist Richard Ramsey said the data showed that Northern Ireland's economic prosperity, relative to the UK average, was lower than at any time since data began in 1997. Northern Ireland's GVA was 76.7% of the UK average in 2013, in 1997 it was at 79.2%. The gap with the rest of the UK narrowed the boom years and peaked at 83.7% in 2007, before falling away sharply during the recession.
  2. Stamp duty changes boost housing market and push up pricesBuyers spend their savings making higher offers while estate agents see sales rise the morning after autumn statement http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/dec/05/stamp-duty-changes-housing-market Although 98% of homebuyers will pay less tax as a result of the reforms, Alex Hilton of the campaigning group Generation Rent said the changes would not make it easier for those who were struggling to afford to buy a home. “The chancellor has spun this as a benefit to buyers but that’s not how markets work,” he said. “The market price is the price the market will bear, and if you reduce the tax, the market will bear a slightly higher price so the seller benefits, not the buyer.”
  3. Families spending less than in 2006, says ONS - UKhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30290451 Housing costs, such as rent and fuel, were top of the expenditure list, ahead of transport costs.
  4. George Osborne’s deficit reduction plan requires unprecedented binge in personal borrowinghttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/george-osbornes-deficit-reduction-plan-requires-unprecedented-binge-in-personal-borrowing-9904499.html Two in three of us worry about ending up with sack full of debt for new yearhttp://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/two-in-three-of-us-worry-about-ending-up-with-sack-full-of-debt-for-new-year-30800381.html British workers suffer biggest real-wage fall of major G20 countriesInternational Labour Organisation finds in three years to 2013 UK wages fared worse than most of the eurozone’s crisis hit economies http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/04/british-workers-suffered-biggest-real-wage-fall-major-g20-countries
  5. Northern Ireland household income rose 3% in 2013, DSD research sayshttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-30200494 It shows that, after housing costs, the typical household has income of £358 per week. There were big differences across the income distribution: the poorest 20% of households saw incomes rise by 15% after housing costs, while the richest 20% saw incomes fall by 4%. DSD are carrying out further analysis to suggest explanations for the big variation. Factors could include more low income households finding work. The figures also suggest that during the recession there was a significant rise in poverty among working age adults. However during the same period the proportion of pensioners in poverty fell. Other official research published last week suggests that earnings in Northern Ireland continued to fall in real terms in 2013. However, that research looked at individual earnings rather than overall household incomes.
  6. Level of rates debt at all-time high in Northern Irelandhttp://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/level-of-rates-debt-at-alltime-high-in-northern-ireland-30771508.html The young are the new poor: Sharp increase in number of under-25s living in poverty, while over-65s are better off than everhttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/the-young-arethe-new-poor-sharp-increase-in-the-number-of-under25s-living-in-poverty-while-over65s-are-better-off-than-ever-9878722.html
  7. When we compare like for like ie at the same point in time prices are lower than 2004 So Q1 prices in 2014 are lower than Q1 prices 2005 Q2 prices in 2014 are lower than Q2 prices in 2005 Q3 prices in 2014 were lower than Q3 prices in 2005 And barring something spectacular, Q4 prices will be lower than 2005 so, taken as a whole (and without mixing and matching quarters) I expect to be moving into 2015 with prices lower than they were in 2005. Which is what both the RPPI and BBC report. You say the 55% drop was not matched by a 55% drop in income. Correct, but incomes didn't double in 2 yrs. The average RV in 2005 was £116,257. Pretty close to RPPI figures and a million miles away from the dung report When The ea sample talks about rising transactions they don't give figures - their sample was down this quarter - so they must be referring to secondary data. RPPI appears to be more factual giving figures rather than opinions on 'positive reading' and 'normalised levels'.
  8. Workers are now £2,000 a year WORSE OFF under the Tories' cost of living squeezeUK - presumably worse here, as usual. http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/workers-now-2000-year-worse-4721818 Full-time workers are now £2,000 a year worse off because of the cost-of-living crisis. The brutal cut in the spending power of millions of ordinary people has emerged as George Osborne prepares to give his Autumn ­Statement on Wednesday. Independent experts at the House of Commons say the average weekly full-time wage has risen 4.4 per cent since the ­Coalition came to power. But pay in real terms was down 6.9 per cent once inflation – 12.2 per cent – was taken into account.
  9. Who are the 'we' you refer to? The Dung report spends most of its time covering price - (price) performance by property type, (price) performance by region, house Price index, price performance, prices start to recover, rate of price increases. The clue is in the title - House Price Index. I can see one mention of higher transaction levels (presumably volume, not price) on page 2. Indeed the only other mention is that the sample for this quarter is lower than the sample for last quarter. There'll be nothing boring about your expected price increases - this will mean that unless wages match this growth (rather than reversing as they are at the minute and have been for some time) then the ratio of wages to price currently given as 4.2 in RPPI will have to increase (in the absence of cheaper borrowing). Ramsays viewpoint may be more nuanced than the Dung report, but who is he to prescribe 2005 or 29,000 transactions as normal and why? Not that I can call it but would like to see the reasoning behind this - job mobility, down sizing, upsizing, FTB, investment The point I'm trying to make is that who is to say 2004 prices were not overvalued and indeed houses still are today. Perhaps they are exactly right. But the assumption appears to be by many VIs that price rises are a recovery and I'm still not sure when that recovery will be complete though I suspect many will not be happy until 2007 prices are reached and breached.
  10. This assumes the EA sample is somewhere close to useful. The average price in this 'report' is so out of kilter with the RPPI report that it just shows it up for what it is. Dung. And you are mistaken http://www.nisra.gov.uk/housepriceindex/NI_RPPI_Statistical_Report_Q3_2014.pdf Residential property prices are now 3% lower than Q1 2005 (page 1)
  11. Hong Kong investors back Bangor property development £3m apartment development wins support of tycoons from Far East http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/news/hong-kong-investors-back-bangor-property-development-30780394.html
  12. Bidders snap up bargains as Northern Ireland properties go under hammer http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/bidders-snap-up-bargains-as-northern-ireland-properties-go-under-hammer-30783306.html Next up was one of the most eagerly anticipated lots, a modern two-bedroom apartment at The Cloisters on University Avenue, a short distance from Queen's University. Its capital value was £130,000, but it was offered for auction for just £95,000. It was bought by a couple from Magherafelt for £117,000. The couple, who preferred not to be named, said it was the first time they had been to a property auction. "We saw this apartment in the catalogue and had been to see it before the auction," they said. "There is just such a poor return on money in the bank these days we thought property would be a much better investment. "So far we are thinking about renting it out, although we have some nieces and nephews who will be coming to Belfast in a few years' time so we'll see." A similar apartment in the complex rents per month for around £620. Later in the auction, a three-bedroom bungalow on Palmerston Road in east Belfast sold for £96,000, slightly under the reserve price of £100,000. Its capital value was set at £140,000.
  13. Certus to close its Belfast office next yearhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-30264792 Certus, the financial services company, is to close its Belfast office next year putting 25 jobs at risk. The company was set up primarily to manage the wind-down of the loan book of Bank of Scotland Ireland (BoSI). BoSI, which was owned by the Lloyds Banking Group, was effectively closed in 2010 after losing billions in the Irish property crash. A large part of the BoSI loan book has now been sold reducing demand for the services provided by Certus. Reprocessed. The Certus operations will be centralised in Dublin and it is possible that some of the Belfast staff could be redeployed. Some of BoSI's largest Northern Ireland loans were sold to the US investment fund Oaktree in 2012. Among projects financed by BoSI were the Obel Tower In Belfast and the Lough Erne Golf Resort. Both those properties were repossessed and subsequently sold to US investors. The bank also specialised in lending money to property developers to buy helicopters and private jets.
  14. No, it is in the text of your post #4530 and when I quoted the line I highlighted the 2004 reference, not the recovery has been slow term that you helpfully highlighted within my quote (from yours). Now it may well be that the journalist threw that in at the end and it was superfluous to the Estate Agent sample report (it wasn't in quotation marks, in fairness) but that's why i picked up on it. Perhaps I should have said that the BBC, when reporting on this Estate Agent sample, confirm RPPI as the definitive report and prices at 2004 levels. The report is, as we all agree is "toilet paper" so i was suprised that it agreed with the definitive RPPI (which mistakenly overreported increases earlier in the cycle) that prices are still 3% shy of their 2005 baseline. Now you may take issue with your own post, you may even take issue with RV but surely you accept the RPPI - through gritted teeth perhaps - or do you have something better? As for the toilet paper, I did take the opportunity to glance at it there now (and used up the last of my ink printing it Grrrr). It talks of positive reading, steady progress, encouraging (at the heightened levels you alluded to) and recovery. Now recovery to what? 2007 levels? I think their call of £141k for an average house is pretty severe as it is. There were some nuggets however - they say the quarter is +0.3% , Coleraine/Limavady/North Coast up 20%, new build sales almost halving and some data from other sources. Other Sources - 40% of all mortgages since 2005 in negative equity, 68,000 or 15% of all 'owner' occupied dwellings, a growing number of 'double trigger' households (highly geared - 33% of income on mort - unable to restructure) and an overstretched Housing rights service alongside talk of mortgage prisoners and talk of the need for further (taxpayer?) intervention - or "upstream options" called for by speakers at the repossession taskforce conference aptly held at the Titanic visitor centre. Joe frey knows what side his bread is buttered on (NIHE being a DSD body) and calls the taskforce report "an exemplar of high quality research being used to guide the development of housing policy" His bosses will be pleased. Still, with all these cuts perhaps now is the chance to save public money (UUJ/NIHE) and send this EA led nonsense the way of the dodo. Perhaps they could pull the shutters on co-ownership while they are at it. £100,000: The house price gap between south and west Belfast http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/100000-the-house-price-gap-between-south-and-west-belfast-30774987.html The survey noted the share of the market taken by newly-built houses was just 10% compared to 18% in the second quarter. So BVI, are you content we are still at 2004 prices (BBC/RPPI) and at what stage would you see the 'recovery' in house prices achieved & complete?
  15. Discount retailer opens city outlet - LIDL http://www.irishnews.com/business/discount-retailer-opens-city-outlet-1395551 Food banks: 'Rapid rise in demand' for emergency food parcels says Advice NI http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-30239373 Economic growth will slow warns think tank http://www.irishnews.com/business/economic-growth-will-slow-warns-think-tank-1395375
  16. http://boini.bankofireland.com/fs/doc/publications/boi-hpi-q3-20141.pdf
  17. The "slow recovery" are not my words - just shows you the expectation/hope of the UUJ/NIHE/BOI combi. My interest is in the fact that prices have stagnated for almost 11 yrs, on their reckoning. I hope any recent reported rises are reversed in very short order. But given govt interference and the fact that some 40,000 properties were sold when the so called average house was over 9 times average salary, I have little confidence in the general housebuying public acting logically for any length of time, unless actively prohibited from hurting themselves. Which is unlikely, on past form.
  18. Recovery has been slow with values still at around 2004 levels. Below RV?
  19. Millions of Britons 'only days from the breadline,' claims reporthttp://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/millions-of-britons-only-days-from-the-breadline-claims-report-9877881.html The true extent of many Britons' financial fragility is laid bare in a report to be published this week. Millions of people are less than a month away from having to survive on benefits, or help from friends and family, despite the average household thinking they could last 77 days after a "sudden loss of income", warns a new report. In reality, the average household is just 29 days away from this point, while others are much closer still, according to the Deadline to the Breadline report to be released this week. Despite the concerns expressed by many over the rising cost of living during the year ahead, as well as fears of falling wages, more than a third of homes (36 per cent) have "no strategy in place to cope with financial hardship",
  20. I see there is a revision where the rate of increase was exaggerated by 3% in Q1 2013 and this has now been addressed with the 2005 base index currently sitting at 97. If Q4 2014 fails to increase by 4 pips (and it won't increase that much, if at all) house prices will be around the same as they were (or lower) ten yrs ago even with recent increases, a benign interest rate environment, forbearance, accidental landlords (restricting supply) and the props of co-ownership, housing benefit, govt backed mortgages, FLS and BTL tax effeciencies. Additionally the report identifies the wage to cost ratio now as 4.2 whereas it was 5.6 in 2005 so in theory houses are more affordable than in 2005 (though using 2005 as an affordability baseline (ie target), at 5.6, is open to debate. . I'm not sure of the fundamentals surrounding the recent increases (5% deposits, FLS etc perhaps) but I believe the next two quarters will see some of that confidence/sentiment froth blown back with a chance of turning negative again. In the past 4 quarters we had 3 of 1% with Q2 sticking out like a sore thumb at 4% (perhaps before the new mort. rules?). The ONS figures released earlier seems to exclude cash sales - an important omission in this disfunctional market. So I see the headline as NI house prices stagnant over 10 yrs (and even RPPI can make mistakes - on the increase side of things, of course). With the usual choppy waters, headwinds, unchartered territory, uncertainty ahead as people get poorer and interest rates continue to flatline at the expense of savers. BBC reporter tonight said he thought the "housing recovery" was now locked in and good news! House prices rise 7% compared with the same time last year http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-30114472
  21. At times like these I like to remind myself of the now departed Consumer Price Index of inflation which includes housing costs and is hovering around 2.3%. Even the RPI went up this month (as oil and food fell). I assume less wages = less disposable income and tax recpts. Still, credit (debt) can fill the gap - in the short term. And of course house prices are rising!
  22. House prices rise but market easeshttp://www.u.tv/News/House-prices-rise-but-market-eases/56a88442-939e-4bff-a24e-6ce572ea9eae
  23. People in Northern Ireland expect shorter life than UK counterpartshttp://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/people-in-northern-ireland-expect-shorter-life-than-uk-counterparts-30756122.html
  24. UTV http://www.u.tv/News/Mortgage-scam-sentences-welcomed/cb00f562-e791-42e6-8a1c-b231316a384b Borne out of the property boom and ending with its collapse in the 2000s, the scam was uncovered by police "by accident", during an unconnected investigation, otherwise it "might otherwise have remained concealed indefinitely".
  25. Christmas fears as Northern Ireland shop footfall decreases by 5% Retail experts express concern ahead of festive season as Northern Ireland figures worst in UK http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/news/christmas-fears-as-northern-ireland-shop-footfall-decreases-by-5-30745891.html "At the same time, Northern Ireland's vacancy rate remains high at 16.6%, which is the highest of any part of the UK, and which will only get higher as the large number of retail leases that are due to expire over the period to December 2015 will inevitably offer retailers an opportunity to vacate poorer performing locations." Ulster University retail analyst Donald McFetridge said that the figures were "extremely disappointing".
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