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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Shotoflight

  1. Nothing personal L - just highlighting the very one sided nature of the article. Wonder are these risky loans given by niche lenders or are they all at it? though back to your point - they are more like risk free as the taxpayer will, on previous form, underwrite and house prices remain artificially high.
  2. What about the unintended consequences of Liar Loans???? Imagine the cheek of daring to ask for valid proof of your ability to repay? The FSA is worried that despite the banking crisis and economic downturn, and the current severe rationing of mortgages, too many people are still being given home loans even though they cannot show that they can afford them. In July it pointed out that so-called self-certified loans, where the borrower merely asserts that they can afford the monthly repayments, still made up 43% of all home loans granted in the first three months of 2010. And the FSA said its own research had shown that almost half of households either had no money left, or had a shortfall, after they had paid their monthly mortgage bill and deducted living costs from their income. Despite this the mortgage industry has been alarmed at the prospect of any new formal restrictions, such as being obliged to demand that borrowers prove they can pay.
  3. £25-30k PA = highly paid?????????? What is the average UK wage again?
  4. You're right there. The report shows 20% fewer houses sold or sale agreed by EAs from Q4 09 to Q1 10 (1,000 to 800) with a disproportion of new builds where sellers may have been realistic, bankrupt or both. Unless the spring bounce happened in the last 7 weeks and I missed it, it looks like it's not going to. Buyers perhaps have caught themselves on - the banks certainly have.
  5. Difference of opinion. Down 5% - see link below. Apologies for poor linkage. BTW if NIHE sales at the lower end of the market, under the right to buy scheme, have fallen from an average of around 1700 (or more) per annum to less than 50, surely this will skew figures upwards? Also of course no auction figures. http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/media1/research/regional_house_price_map_page.asp
  6. 66% reduction on Luxury Apartments (Flats) in Newbridge by Receiver. Front page of Irish Times website. Panic? http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/property/2009/1119/1224259098941.html Apologies for lack of title. Hope link works or someone can amend. Ta
  7. Check out Lot 34 - reduced from £1,200 000 to £300 000 - a full 75 % reduction if my calcs are correct. Quite a haircut!
  8. How much did the Invest NI report cost? Is there not an (NI) Audit Office for this sort of thing? Do Invest NI or DETI not have their own internal Auditors? How many Civil Servants were interviewed for this report and what would their time have cost? Will it make any difference?
  9. Some things are not as they seem in the property market. Diana Rusk investigates the curious case of the queue at the estate agent’s AT first glance these images appear to show a new boom in the property market with enthusiastic buyers prepared to queue to be the first to buy new apartments. The pictures were sent out to newspapers last week billed as a good-news property story with an accompanying press release entitled ‘Worth the Wait’. It appeared to show people waiting in line – with at least one person wrapped in a sleeping bag and others sitting on deckchairs – for new city centre apartment complex Sugar Walk. The text claimed: “A group of potential purchasers queued outside the Templeton Robinson estate agent’s Lisburn Road office yesterday, preparing to register for an iconic apartment in the Sugar Walk complex, based in the heart of Cathedral Quarter in Belfast.” However, it turns out the image was not a throwback to the days when demand outstripped supply and buyers were forced to queue. Instead, the developer and PR company behind the image have admitted it was at least partially staged. The woman at the head of the queue, who appears to have come prepared with a sleeping bag for an overnight wait, is actually a model paid by the PR company, Michelle McTernan Management. The property developer said the rest of those standing in the photograph were genuine potential buyers but it was not an impromptu queue. They had been told to gather there last Thursday to receive brochures and see a special sculpture of the complex made from sugar cubes. John Davis, property commentator and managing director of financial planning company Davis and Armstrong, said people should be careful when they see what appear to be queues for property. “Everyone and his dog is trying to talk up the market so that people again feel panicked that they should get back on to the ladder,” he said. “Someone ill-informed and looking at this picture on face value might think there is going to be a V-shaped recovery. “The reality is that there is very little demand for property in the north of Ireland because people do not have the money. “We all want to live in beautiful homes but unless you’ve got money behind you then you can’t buy them.” Paul Fitzsimons, of Bradkeel Developments, the company building Sugar Walk, defended the images, saying deposits have been paid on 35 of the apartments retailing from £135,000. “What happened was another partner in the company had arranged to meet interested parties that he was involved with about buying apartments,” he said. “He wanted to give them the brochure and show them the sculpture of this Sugar Cube model and he arranged to meet them outside. “The PR company recognised it was a good photo opportunity and arranged for a model and paid her to be there. “There have been deposits taken because it is a good deal where people give a deposit now and pay the rest three years later on completion.” A spokesman for the estate agent Templeton and Robinson said that staff had been left baffled by the photograph. “There was no queue when we locked up on Thursday night and there was no queue when we opened for business again on Friday,” a spokesman said. “There had been a steady stream of inquiries, which has been encouraging but the photograph was nothing to do with ourselves and really there was no need to queue as such.” Michelle McTernan of Michelle McTernan Management said: “I did put a good-looking girl at the front of the queue and paid for her to be there as a model. “I know if there’s someone good-looking in the photograph it has more chance of being in the papers. “As far as I was aware the rest were genuinely queueing”.
  10. Never mind all that. Bail them out with taxpayers money, turning a blind eye to their pensions. Simples!
  11. Sorry, had to add - loaded gun, Northern Ireland!!!!!!! Also possible 40 yr term - seems dangerous to me.
  12. http://www.ulsterbank.co.uk/ni/personal/bo...first-time.ashx Ulster bank (part of RBS) offers a momentum mortage. 100% - 95% bank 5% developer. Hope link works, perhaps someone can fix if not. Prices in NI dropping like a brick. Maybe dep chief exec isn't aware?
  13. Not only have the Northern Bank failed to pass on last weeks half a point base rate reduction but they have increased their margin from 1.49% above 'their' base rate to 2.49%. This is the base rate tracker product they push on their website. Not sure about fees, deposits and Loan to Value issues but it looks as though mortgages are becoming increasingly difficult to obtain, with predictable knock on effects, I would have thought, for the local housing market.
  14. Wonder how many appeals are initiated and what percentage of appeals are successful? Bit of a bummer if the valuation was revised upwards on appeal and your rates rose accordingly!
  15. The capital value of a property from the Northern Ireland 2005 revaluation is sometimes quoted as a guide for the falling price of property ie prices have gone back to 2005 (even though these values may themselves have been on the high side at that time). I understand valuers in the Land and Property Agency assign the values and the annual Rates are calculated on these values. My question is, what values have been given to properties completed after 2005 and (if these values even partially reflect the market rate alongside a host of other criteria), are some people overpaying on rates and can (should) the capital values since 2005 be revised downwards on appeal? Anyone have any contacts in the LPA or feel like ringing them?
  16. Can some statistical expert establish average household income as opposed to wages. There'll be a lot less wages soon. Household income would include those on benefits. In NI 19% of household income is derived from benefits. In 2005 average household income was £17,000 and I'm sure it's not much higher now.
  17. Thanks Doccyboy - I'm no expert or fan but see the NIHE info as thorough and well researched. It seemed to get little media attention apart from the BBC website. I think a 20 yr trend in the local housing market stopping dead in it's tracks is bound to have some repercussions, even if it only deprives the local market of 5950 mortgages per year (relatively risk free ones at that, given discounts and equity) The developers were content to operate in a distorted rising market and I hope the NIHE politely points them back in that direction.
  18. Go easy - first post. 3 points. The review states council house sales have crashed from almost 6,000 per year (for the past 20 years) to less than 50 this year (95%drop!). I'd imagine this was a rung for first time buyers and will have an effect on FTB's, as well as the NIHE's finances. Some 20% (1200) of these properties were sold on each year - 2 thirds to new Owner Occupiers and 1 third to landlords. Will a shortage of these properties negate some of the predicted future price drops in this sector? I read recently in England that whilst detached bungalows fell 4% in Jan, terraced housing fell by 0.8%. Note also developers have approached the NIHE (as opposed to DSD) to purchase 2000 properties in 500 developments. Noted in Preface - can find no further details. NIHE expect further average house price falls of a minimum 10% this year and quote Ulster Banks prediction of a 40% fall from 2007 to end 2009. Perhaps the Belfast Tele could speak to these 'experts'? Lots of other good info here about affordability etc and worth a look on the NIHE website. Can't do links yet.
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