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House Price Crash Forum

sheepmoney

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About sheepmoney

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  1. When the situation stabilizes banks won't be at risk and governments will be more able to support them. Right now if there is a second wave to the crash the strain on governments to bail out banks will be tremendous, and the guarantee scheme in itself is flawed as it further strains banks so will help cause banks to fail, and in addition I don't think there is enough in the FCIS fund to cover people's deposits, and the government says it will back it up, but it is already has a massive debt burden it is struggling to handle. See: http://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/safe-savings People are fully aware that the government schemes simply pass the bill onto the taxpayer. so there tolerance of big bailouts is weakening. Politically the government is between a rock and a hardplace. Assuming the government could cover the money you have in the bank, there will still be a period of chaos when people realize their funds are at risk. Mass withdrawels (like we saw with NR) are likely and that could clog up the system making it hard to get at your money. It could take a long time before the government processes the deposit scheme leaving people without access to their money. If it got out of hand it is not unrealistic for government's to put a temporary ban on withdrawels.
  2. Thanks, I was hoping that there was already a report out there which had done this. I haven't seen one yet. If I can't find one I think I'll pay someone to do the research.
  3. Thanks for clarifying that. Really for derivatives it would be any one of those that is standardized and where the info is readily available, making it easy to collect and useful to compare.
  4. I'd like to gather information on the following ratios for banks... 1)Deriavtives/Assets 2)Derivatives/Equity 3)Derivatives/Market Cap 4)Derivatives/Deposits 5)Loans/Equity These ratios give a clear indication of how vulnerable the banks are. UK Banks I suspect are the safest are: Tesco Coop Nationwide HSBC (probably in that order) But I want more info on these banks to confirm it since U.K banks in general are extremely leveraged.
  5. Historically when you hit a major top in real estate, the prices don't recover to the same price (inflation adjusted) for nearly a century. So if you buy a house at a peak it won't come back to its original price for a decade. Looking at a chart of house prices for 300 years this is the biggest top on record, and typically the declines last at least a decade (recent Japan crash in house prices was 15 yrs decline). Anyone saying anything different is ignoring 300 years of historic evidence.
  6. Maybe the fact that every country that has subscribed to the current money system (i.e all countries) is suffering greatly from a deflationary collapse. In the U.S there are well known leaders, politicians and economists that subscribe to Austrian economics. They all predicted this mess and they all predict current actions will make it worse. There's no evidence that Austrian economics would have us in the stone ages, just theories from people who support the current monetary system. Whereas the theories on how the current money system will play out from Austrian economics is coming true. I'm more convinced that the reason it is not followed in this country is because it is not taught to economic students. If more people knew about it I'm sure more people would follow it. It also gets practically zero media attention in the UK. In the U.S where it is taught in some places, and also where it gets some media attention, to no surprise it has a strong following. That following is beginning to spill over to the U.K thanks to the internet. Just because everyone is doing it doesn't make it right. Brown's been spouting that one for a long time, but forgets world governments moved in unison to create a bubble in the first place which in hindsight was not the best move, at least not for the general population.
  7. I think long term we are on that track if something doesn't change, but in the short term I'm not 100% sure. Although an IMF bailout does not seem that unlikely when you look at the figures.
  8. Interesting video. Didn't think Schiff would be so controversial as to tell the Saudi's how to lead the world economy. Maybe he's tired of preaching on deaf ears in the U.S.
  9. The more I've read and learned about the economy the more I'm pulled towards Austrian economics, free markets etc. That essentially means I think: - Bailouts are bad. - Fiat money is unhealthy. - A gold standard is good. All major parties believe in a big government, all back bailouts in some way and do not challenge the current system. Even the BNP and UKIP which some people say as radical alternatives do not share the views of Austrian economics. In the U.S they have Ron Paul, not perfect for me since he thinks evolution is just a theory, but at least he is honest and doesn't try to be an athiest and a christian at the same time. But his economic policies are 100% in line with mine. Yet in the U.K there's not a single party that holds this policy. Even though people who subscribe to Austrian economics warned of this bubble a long time ago, and now state what governments are doing is wrong. Who should I vote for?
  10. Peston seems to post some sense, how come I've never heard of him before and I watch BBC news daily? How come his views and the stats he reels off is not on the BBC 1 coverage? What's his views on UK bankruptcy - I couldn't dig anything up and its late and I can't be bothered looking myself. Anyone know already?
  11. - Niall Fergusen - Robert Pretcher (January 2009, Elliot Wave forecast), - Nadeem Walayat - Jim Rogers - Dan Atkinson - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard - Philip Delves Broughton - Mike Shedlock - Adrian Ash - John Stepek - Grant Thornton Who else? While I don't think the U.K government going bankrupt and needing a bailout from the IMF is the end of our society it sure is getting pretty worrying. I think it is about time the BBC discussed this on their main broadcast.
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