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Casual Observer

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Everything posted by Casual Observer

  1. I think eventually we will get average HPI of about 1-2% for 4 or 5 years. Actually I think my area had it for about 3 years for some categories of house, between about 2003 and 2006. A correction in real terms.
  2. I first heard soft landing in the 70's. When did this fellow "invent" it?
  3. Well said. I'm sure RB is just a speculator who sees homes as money making devices.
  4. RB calls it bearish because BTLers won't make a profit My definition of bearish is prices falling for outpriced home Owners
  5. No, their "best case" was 8%. Their "worst" case was 5% 5-8% HPI is bearish? Call me Casual uber-Bear then, in that case!
  6. Yes I'd agree with your post RB. Annual HPI of about 5% for 2007. I'd have preferred something around 2-3% but I think we'll all have to wait another year for that. Q2 2008 I reckon.
  7. Search his posts. I'm not bothered either way, actually, but If I were a Moderator I would ban him. For 1 thing, I thought that trying to pose as another poster was against the forum rules. I would have also thought that being personally abusive to other posters and their families, to the degree that he is, was also against the rules.
  8. If you think the forum benefits from childish, obscene, homophobic, personally insulting and often disgusting posts that add no insight to the property market, then don't ban him.
  9. Has someone taught you a new word? Don't wear it out will you?
  10. Oh, don't give up! I was enjoying the debate. Now I'm bored. I'm gonna make myself a cup of tea to cheer myself up.
  11. Oh, come on! You can hardly excuse your schoolboy howlers by claiming I'm too pedantic - that's just a cop-out. We can't have meaningful analysis of the issues without us all going into a bit of detail, can we? Would you rather I just said the usual superfluous nonsense. e.g.: CPI only has CD players from China in it The MPC fiddles the figure every month The media all lie about the housing market Halifax fiddles its figures every month There's enough of those kind of posts about. My more detailed nonsense provokes a bit more of a lively diversion, surely?
  12. Are you winding me up!? You said no-one has a fixed debt (you were getting confused with fixed interest rates I think) and I was correcting you. How do you go from that to me basing all my arguments on wage inflation?? Read my virtual lips: I don't think we will have high inflation, high wage rises or high interest rates But, if inflation ever did take off, causing further problem with affordability through higher IRs, wage inflation would accompany it. In my opinion of course. And all the other caveats. Always read the label. Not to be taken seriously by anyone with a limited mental capacity.co.uk etc. etc.
  13. You are really confusing me now! We're talking about the prospect for IRs and their effect on house prices. It doesn't matter if you or I think true inflation is 50%. The fact is that IRs are 5.5%, wage inflation is 4.5%, and CPI is 2.8%.
  14. I don't disagree with you, but don't forget that people who took out high multiple mortgages will see those decrease as their wages increase. Example, my son borrowed about 4.2 times salary originally, or thereabouts, but with wage rises this is now down to about 3.5ish after 16 months. If inflation (including wage inflation) increased, this process of debt erosion accelerates
  15. Go away and think about what you've said, GOM. I said the debt is fixed, not the interest rate. It's the originbal loan that erodes through wage inflation. Borrow 200k and its real value will erode with inflation.
  16. But the inflation figures which you don't believe are the ones that the IRs are targetting. If the CPI is reading 2%, they're not going to increase IRs to 8%, on the grounds that they don't believe in the accuracy of the CPI.
  17. I don't think employers will give everyone big pay rises actually. Which is precisely the reason I don't think inflation will grow too high. The flaw in your argument is that you don't need wage increases above inflation to erode a fixed debt. You just need wage inflation. If general prices and wages both rose by 10% per annum for 3 years. today's 200k mortgage would look a lot more sane.
  18. Quite. This is a period of low inflation compared to the seventies. I was responding to the poster who spoke about inflation rising. BTW, wage settlements are at about 4.5%
  19. High inflation and static house prices would soon bring slack back. Just like in the 70's when you borrowed the maximum and had sleepness nights for a year, but then after a few years of double digit inflation, the repayments were suddenly far easier
  20. You may be thinking of the original Property Guru, whose name this PG stole, after he left the forum. PG used to be Crash is Under Way, and had an obsession with the original Property Guru. He's always been a nasty piece of work, with a wierd homosexual hang-up thing going on.
  21. Tthis guy's just a cowardly internet bore. He's been thrown off other web forums for his foul and abusive posts. He's given grovelling apologies for his posts in the past, only to come back weeks later just the same. Offer to meet up with him and he'll run a mile. I'm surprised he's not been banned from this site, for his language - after all it would put a few new posters off the site I would have thought.
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