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Casual Observer

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Everything posted by Casual Observer

  1. Don't tell me - it's a post that proves prices will crash within weeks. I've seen a few hundred of them on here over the last few years.
  2. I've been calling a lowering of HPI for about 18 months. It's you and GOM that expected a price crash, if you're honest. 5% HPI - is that a Bear success story?
  3. I can't be ar5ed to follow your questions to be honest, as they are usually nonsensical and off-the-point. Was it something interesting? I've seen charts and reasons on this forum, and its predecessor, since 2003. Many of them predicted house price falls within weeks. People who bought a house in 2003 were called muppets. I have my own reasons for thinking that prices will correct through lower-than-inflation rises, which I've posted dozens of times. None of them have really been argued against in any depth, I just keep getting the same old mantra about IRs, Australian price crashes (whatever happened to that dead-cert?), charts and trends. When all the data shows house prices still rising, most people call them a pack of lies. Inflation is really 12%, the ONS fiddles the CPI weightings blah blah blah. Meanwhile, there's still no real let-up in house prices. It's simple really GOM. People are still paying current prices. It may be socially unfair that they are investors rather than home owners, but they are. And as they become unaffordable, prices will stop rising. I saw it happen for about 3 years where I live, from 2003. Prices didn't collapse the way many of us thought they would. They started rising again as soon as they became affordable again, through the combination of a 0.25% IR cut and increased wages.
  4. On the other hand, you are a grumpy old man, on account of your not having the house price crash you expected
  5. You just pinched that from Nationwide. What did you think the level of annual UK hpi would be by now?
  6. You sound like my old headmaster! I would like your comments on what went wrong with the crash that was supposed to start in Q1 2007.
  7. 5.75% and 5.75%. I could be wrong, but then again I'm not so convinced about IRs causing a HPC as some of you lot, so I probably don't think it's as relevant as you. What's your prediction for Nationwide's national average HPI figure for the end of 2007?
  8. Jon Gaunt's job is to wind listeners up by being provocative. Sounds like he's having a succesful day.
  9. Deleted duplicate post. IT's got the hiccups
  10. Well, it would for you. You never actually express any opinions.
  11. Well, we're never going to get a prediction on it from you are we mate? Of course, what you really hanker after is a HPC isn't it? IRs are what you hope are a means to an end. Still, it's nice for you to clutch at straws. I don't begrudge you one little bit.
  12. Maybe 1 more .25%, although I won't be surprised if we don't see it. What's your prediction?
  13. Not far out was i? Pretty damn good - far better than anyone else that I acn recall, including the MPC What was your personal prediction about the level of HPI by now, regardless of whether you had the guts to declare 1 on here?
  14. Surely, the whole Bear philosophy is for there to be less money available, which will make it less easy to buy a house, which will cause it to fall in price through market forces. That's why Bears like higher IRs - it will make house prices less affordable. So evidence that people are spending less should presumably be seen as good news to Bears. Same with higher unemployment. Higher taxes should also be welcomed by Bears, and higher inflation, come to that, with or without IR increases. But of course, higher unemployment and lower retail sales eases the pressure on further IR increases. And this is where Bears get confused about whether this is good or bad news!
  15. Sigh.. In the original post I gave a quick off the top of my head reply, and promised to come back with more examples. I came back with more examples and put them in the original post, so that it became as complete as I was going to make it. Having done so, I removed the comment that I would come back with more, since at that stage I'd given as many as I was going to. What's your problem? I'm not sure what you're insinuating. I promised to come back with examples and I did. If you think I shgould have spent a few hours more on it, then tough, I'm not going to. I couldn't care less whether you think the ONS are fiddling the inflation figures, to be honest. You have a bit of a cheek, to be honest, after I did what I promised.
  16. Caught the 6 pm news, where I learnt that 70% of economists predict stagnation!
  17. Come on , think this through! The staff at the ONS compile the figures. They are not responsible for inflation. They are a team of statisticians and I'm sure they take great pride in the work they do. Why would they want to fiddle the figures? And if you tell me that GB tells them to, do you honestly believe he would risk his career by this being exposed? And don't you think it would have been exposed by a disgruntled employee by now? Stop this silly conspiracy theory stuff.
  18. ... and because we don't have them now, IRs won't need to be as high. And multiples can be higher than the norm. So property isn't as over-priced as the traditional price to earnings would lead you to believe. And if tyhey were, wages would be rising. You actually put your finger right on the reason why prices haven't fallen.
  19. Depends on your definition. Mine is a non-nominal fall correction, of which there have been many, many examples.
  20. You said that they should sell because the rise in price of their homes would slow down. How does low HPI cause them to face bankruptcy? You give yourself away with some of your posts, RB, and then wriggle like mad to change the meaning of what you said. Every thing you post portrays you as a speculator rather than a would-be home owner who just wants to house his family
  21. In the edited post. I added info about clothing, footwear, oil and gas to my original one on education. Sorry, but I haven't got the time to do any more research than I did, and if you'd prefer to believe that the people at ONS sit down and fiddle the figures every month to show that inflation is falling, then that's up to you!
  22. Why suggest that people sell their homes then, just because you think its price won't continue to rise?
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