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Casual Observer

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Everything posted by Casual Observer

  1. I don't think it is out of context. I believe many on here (not necessarily you) do eschew the idea of mortgages. I've had comments like "you haven't proven the purchase was affordable until the mortgage is completely paid off" which is pretty meaningless if, for example someone still owes 10k on a £1million house. The modern world was built on debt. It is an essential element of the economy and shouldn't be seen as negatively as it is here.
  2. I didn't put it forward as inconclusive proof that there would be stagnation. I was just trying to balance things by pointing out that the idea of stagnation isn't quite as outlandish as some would claim.
  3. That's one of those cliches that sounds smart and unassailable, but doesn't really hold water or help much. It's like saying "the thought of having to earn money to feed my family for the rst of my life is slavery" Arguably it's true, but where does it take us? And was Alan Sugar a slave when he borrowed his first £500 to sell radios in Romford Market? I suppose he was for a while, but what's the alternative? I see a mortgage as an investment whose return is to fix the initial price of a house and to avoid the need for rental costs beyond the term of the mortgage. I could have avoided being a slave when I first bought a house 31 years ago, by renting instead. But if I had I'd be shelling out about £2,500 per month in rent. I'd feel more like a slave if I had.
  4. I agree with you. Those that disagree would point out that low wage inflation makes a stagnation-correction less possible. However they ignore the fact that in just such times (low inflation, low IRs) repayments are more affordable despite higher mortgage -wage multiples, and that if IRs ever did rise significantly it would be accompanied by higher wage inflation. In other words, the whole process has a kind of built-in risk mitigation to the risk of taking out a high mortgage at a low IR.
  5. Is this the epitome of Mickey Mouse degrees? A PhD in property, ffs! How long's the course? 3 hours?
  6. it's not beyond logic that prices will simply lag or be equal to wage inflation. 70% of independent economists believe that this is the most likely outcome.
  7. Not being funny, and I wouldn't attempt to advise anyone either way, but make your own mind up - don't be 100% convinced by any of us that we know what's going to happen. There is a chance that house prices may never be as low as they currently are, don't discount it.
  8. Usually not, actually! Look at nearly every period of nominal house price rises in the UK.
  9. Here's another for you: http://www.houseprices.uk.net/articles/odpm_regional/
  10. Did you see Spine's chart, above? All the lines are pointing upwards! Enjoy, Grey Shark!
  11. But the gains indicated on this thread beat the falls by about 2,500%
  12. Nonsense. Value doesn't depend on selling! You must be getting confused with realised profit. Poor old GOM is obsessed with the idea that my son, who bought himself a house 16 months ago, will lose it, or lose money on it. He refers to him practicaly every post he makes. This is the depths to which some of the losers on here sink, a man in his 40s wishing ill-will on a 26 year old who has saved to buy himself a home. Shame on him. The man needs winding up.In reality I and my son couldn't give a toss how much his house has appreciated. I wonder if GOM has kids of his own?
  13. Is that why you don't own a house, even at your age? Increase of 56% on my son's type of house! That's more than we both thought, I think.
  14. Small samples and, importantly, the data is grouped into broad categories. Think of your own area and estimate the price band for different types within them e.g. whta's the cheapest type of detached house and what's the most expensive. Do the same for the other categories. There will be a different mix of property types within the data, and this distorts the figures. As I said before, In my area there are places where detached houses sell for 400k. There are also places where detached houses go for 2 million. If, in 1 quarter, they sell 6 cheap ones and 1 expensive one, and then the next quarter they sell 2 expensive ones and 2 cheap ones, it will show phenomenal increases. Works the same the other way
  15. Yes, I was really shocked to find that houses like mine, in my area, have appreciated by 75%. My son's has appreciated by 56% too, which will ease GOM's worries And what about that area that rose by over three thousand per cent? Didn't they do well? Yes, I was really shocked - I didn't relaise that there were such enormous rises and such enormous falls in other areas. Keep going with these stats RB, they're hilarious. I take it you're not a statistician or mathematician by profession?
  16. Check out the annual mortgage approval figures. They're practically at record levels.
  17. Why can't you see the problem with these data?? Isn't it obvious?
  18. The data is fine. But people make the mistake of thinking that data = information.
  19. Well I tried to explain it here: In my area there are places where detached houses sell for 400k. There are also places where detached houses go for 2 million. If, in 1 quarter, they sell 6 cheap ones and 1 expensive one, and then the next quarter they sell 2 expensive ones and 2 cheap ones, it will show phenomenal increases. Works the same the other way
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