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Casual Observer

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Posts posted by Casual Observer

  1. yes, like we have said, it's good to see that you have seen the light & he has now sold. See what you can learn if you listen. ;)

    so I assume you have changed your mind regarding the housing market stagnating then ? or is it different this time.


    ps - has the money gone into the bank yet...? if so, make sure he doesn't put it into a Northern Rock account won't you. Get someone to help you if you don't understand all this banking stuff.

    Err, it's because he believes there will be stagnation that he hasn't traded up yet. (You may need to get someone to explain the logic behind this.)

    If you mean, why didn't he keep the other house and rent it out, sorry, we're bot against BTL, on principle.

    Of course his money's in NR. It's in my wife's account (low rate tax). As an existing account holder, it's guaranteed beyond the 35k limit. I've transferred a lot of my own money into it too.

    I worry about you sometimes , GOM. This stuff isn't difficult to follow.

  2. :D:D

    well who would have believed it eh, CO's son is an STR.

    Welcome to the Bear club & at least you saw sense even though you can't/won't admit it.

    Redalert is obviously being sarcastic about the stagnation comment as he knows you have forecast stagnation for years now.

    Stagnation my ar$e. :lol::lol:

    Renting? He wouldn't do that! Why pay rent to some scum BTL landlord? (no offence Grumpy, I know you're a landlord)

    Good that he sold his out for 37k more than he paid for it though, isn't it? ;)

    Especially when you and others said he bought at the peak.

    Oh, my aching sides.

  3. :D

    yes, i was wondering that myself. Would Pedantic Pete aka CO, start trawling though all his posts & change the wordng etc.

    Imagine though advising your son or was it son-in-law, I can't remember ;) & telling them to buy at near peak, when he had access to all this information & great advice from hpc, bizarre :blink::blink:

    Now he has done a complete u-turn akin to swervy merv & apparently sold the house........

    hey CO, it's not sold remember untill the money is in the bank....man I wouldn't like to be selling a house right now, post peak imo...... :o:o

    Cash is in the bank.

    Game over GOM ;)

  4. This is just the start of it, imagine the backtracking and editing of old posts that will be taking place over the next 6 months! :lol:

    Oh dear, oh dear.

    1. I never bought NR shares. I never SAID I bought NR shares. I simply asked if it was worth buying NR shares, and mused about doing so.

    2. My son did not STR. That is not the only reason people sell houses. They sell and buy other houses ;)

    3. I never ever mentioned Son in law. Charlie made that one up, presumably because I misspelt Son as SOIM. (fat fingers)

    Does making things up to try to make your point work for you guys?

    Point is: Son bought house in 2006 for 248. Son sells house in 2007 for 285. You lot told me he was foolish to have bought it. You were wrong.

    Deal with it.

  5. Most of these pay 525 GBP per day or more..


    e.g. http://www.jobserve.com/WCDF765D91D5E0BE8.job - £600-£700/Day Depending On Experience

    http://www.jobserve.com/W62E8A0A88EF87FD8.job - 600-700/Day

    http://www.jobserve.com/W55D4F352B5ACEE90.job - 650/Day

    http://www.jobserve.com/WADB4F1C835B8571D.job - £500-£700/Day

    I work with a guy who is on 700 GBP+ per day who has mentioned that he thinks that the it might be worth voting for the BNP.

    I can confirm that those rates are not atypical for IT jobs in London.

    Edited to clarify that I think they are typical, in case anyone thought atypical was a typo!

  6. http://www.reuters.com/article/stockTicker...216313020070522

    "Treasury Secretary Paulson said the housing slump is "largely contained" and that its correction is mostly "behind us." "

    These housing slumps are short lived these days. Must be time to get back in for another massive increase in the next 5 years.

    I thought the wisdom on this forum was that they last longer than 1 year? ;)

    Maybe they've "had" what we "had" in 2005 and what Australia "had" too.

    It's as well not to get carried away with some of these "indicators" of financial meltdown. ;)

  7. However, I do question if he really has "done well" out of his house, because it`s hardly worth a huge fortune, it isn`t going to put an awfull lot of money in his pocket if he downsizes. All that has happened is that there has been a large shift in the quality and size of property that a person on average wage can afford. If this proccess carries on, only higher earners will be able to afford the smallest properties. I can`t see this happening, something`s got to give, unless we end up with a pile of broken elastic bands !

    I bought my first home in 1975/6. When we last moved, in 1994, I had the princely sum of about 70k in equity. By the time I'd paid the buying and selling fees for the next move, I probably had about 65k.

    I didn't consider this to be a huge sum after you take out 18 years of interest payments, repairs and maintenance, despite being called lucky for living through a high wage inflation period.

  8. OK, I agree RB is a nutter but I think there is more to the BBC's LR data than just a ****-up with the figures. I'm sure the figures reflect the actual price paid for properties actually sold. What the figures don't have is any mix adjustment (as Spline has already pointed out) and in most cases the sample size is relatively small. Don't forget that the average house price is arrived at by mix-adjusting large numbers of transactions so it shouldn't be at all surprising that in any period of time lots of houses don't sell for the average price.

    As I've said above, the figures show whether there is more action at the top than the bottom of the market in different areas. The areas quoted as having big falls in prices are just areas where there has been a lot of activity at the bottom end of the market. What that tells us is open to interpretation. It may mean that BTL buyers are the only ones active in that area or it may tell us that people can only afford to buy in the grottiest areas.

    But the data is`also type-segmented. And figures for, say, flats appear nonsense too.

  9. RB - do you really believe that prices were dropping 75% in a month or whatever it was? Is this therefore a conspiracy to silence the media? Why do you have to attempt to spin a non-story to become the end of the world? You continually insult everyone else's intelligence with this crap and make this website look like it's full of nutters. In reality there's just one nutter who starts a lot of threads.

    Losing credibility by the day, RB old chap

  10. 'Long term houses only go up in value(sic).' Bzzt. Let's shed some economic reality on this, and explode a few myths propogated by filthy shylocks. In a global marketplace for most people wage inflation is going to be either very low or non existent. I can guarantee that for most people here the growth in house prices has far exceeded the growth in the wage they are paid. In fact house prices have been inflating at an increasing rate against wages. Extrapolate this as a longer term scenaio and it just can't work. Something has to give, either house prices have to fall dramatically to being them back into line with what people earn, or wages will need to start inflating very substantially. Globalisation has us locked into a race to the bottom, and no company will tolerate an environment of high wage inflation, they'll do the sums and decide to move whatever they can off shore. If companies are prepared to move jobs paying little more than minimum wage abroad then just imagine how motivated they will be to do the same for high paying jobs. High wage inflation could well be the straw that breaks the camels back. Simply put, there is no way most people are going to see high wage inflation. So long-term HPI won't be happeneing because there won't be the inflation in wages to allow it to happen.

    Your argument seems to rely on the old low-wage-inflation argument. But you ignore the fact that this in itself leads to low mortgage interest rates, and so prices can afford to drift higher than normal in relation to incomes.

  11. I actually think a couple of years National Service would be an excellent idea. Certainly sort out a lot of the problematic kids who think they are accountable to nobody.

    You're probably not old enough to know anyone who did National Service. I was too young for it personally, but I'm old enough to know that that's a naive assertion, through personal knowledge of people who went through it.

    Hard nuts and villains who went into NS came out as fit and tougher villains in many cases, not necessarily pillars of the community

  12. I see. But secretly you know there's a big difference between HPC and inflationary correction. For political reasons you don't wan't your devoted followers to know this.

    Picture the Nationwides HPI graph with its long-term trend line. Now consider scenario a and scenario b ...

    a ) House prices revert to the long term mean because inflation has taken off.

    b ) House prices revert to the long term mean because house prices have gone down.

    Those different scenarios produce different winners and losers. I might also add that perhaps the long term trend could be re-drawn. I could also add that the speed of any correction would be important. No one can hedge their position against all the different outcomes, and those of us who take an extreme position on one of the outcomes are likely to win or lose most.

    The extreme bearish position you encourage people to take is one of the most dangerous.

    You've hit the nail very squarely on the head with this post.

    This is a crucial distinction which is extremely important to personal decision-making in the housing market. I'm sure many of RB's followers don't understand this important distinction, and he tries to waffle his way out when challenged, without answering your very pertinent questions.

  13. Well this ex customer of mine did.

    Started his business 40 years ago working from a room in his FTB property. Sold his business 3 years ago for £12 million, paid the CGT due at 40% and paid his dues to the Treasury all through his working life. What did he get in return, a poxy State Pension of £90 per week and a free bus pass. :rolleyes:

    That's terrible.

    As a self-made millionaire he should be on at least a grand a week state pension :D

  14. You know how you get outrageously misleading theatre reviews on billboards:

    "Sinatra", a musical mixing footage of the legendary crooner and a live band, claimed praise for its "energy, razzmatazz and technical wizardry."

    In fact The Observer's Sean O'Hagan wrote: "I couldn't help feeling for all the energy, razzmatazz and technical wizardry, the audience has been short-changed."

    I reckon RB writes them all.

  15. Its because the Times actually printed this:

    the long-awaited correction in the housing market is about to begin.

    I know, RB.

    And you decided to change the word correction to HPC.

    Wasn't the actual quote bearish enough for you?

    In actual fact, the Times quote , in full, was: A sudden drop in mortgage approvals recorded by building societies has sparked fears that the long-awaited correction in the housing market is about to begin.

    But it sounds better when you leave out the first 14 words, doesn't it, and then change the word correction for HPC.

    You remind me of GB's last budget speech when he tried to con the public into thinking he'd reduced income tax.

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