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Churchill

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  1. Your tone towards me comes across as patrionising and shows signs of insecurity. I trust this is not the case. Just so it is fresh in your memory my friend, as we are in the mood of quoting dictionaries today, insecurity can be defined as Insecurity is a feeling of general unease or nervousness that may be triggered by perceiving oneself to be unloved, inadequate or worthless (whether in a rational or an irrational manner). A person who is insecure lacks confidence in their own value and capability, trust in themselves or others, or has fears that a present positive state is temporary and will let them down and cause them loss or distress by "going wrong" in future. Quoting VedantaTrader "I also said as insurance against higher rates...is taking out insurance not a wise thing? Real interest rates have went up since the BOE have cut rates even now" Question? What form of insurance is available on the high street to combat rise in interest rates ? ? As far as I am aware Capped products are no longer an option for people looking a mortgage ? ? Quoting VedantaTrader "It all boils down to timeframe...you have quoted me on something which I have pictured happening 2-4 years from now, and linked what has happened in a few weeks to nitpick over what I have said." I apologise if you feel this is nitpicking as you referred to but as your definition of a forum defines "a meeting or medium for the open discussion of subjects of public interest" surely just because someone else questions your writings in the public interest you should welcome this. Question? In relation to timeframe we are all aware that oil and food etc have inflationary / currency pressures do you think property is different and will not experience relative inflationary pressures? Of course the price will go up on all commodoties its only a matter of time? Please correct me if I am wrong. Question? Did the price of oil reach its peak because of speculation or was it increased demand? Why did the speculators disperse mid summer time? Was this a result of government intervention? Question? Is this crisis similar to any that have gone before this based on your knowledge and experiences.
  2. VedantaTraderDec 14 2008, 06:17 PM "I have been looking at crude and light sweet oil options that are dated right out to 2016...althought I imagine the liquidity could be a problem that far out. I m seriously considering buying the options on crude dated 18-24 months out. " VedantaTraderDec 14 2008, 06:17 PM Oil prices have fell significantly since the above date QUOTE (VedantaTrader @ Dec 13 2008, 07:26 PM) "Now most bears on this site see the government actions leading to higher interest rates, higher commodity prices, higher energy prices. Whenever interest rates do move higher, perhaps up double digits eventually, what type of mortgage will you plan to take out, how do you plan to hedge against higher rates in order to finance your mortgage..." VedantaTrader @ Dec 13 2008, 07:26 PM Interest rates fell significantly since the above post was detailed I have been reading some of the previous threads and I feel that they should have a warning on them that they accept no liability for their writings just incase someone actually takes their advice. Winston Churchill
  3. You must know a thing or two about markets and how economies work etc. by trading the markets for a living Surely you would have seen a few months ago the need to change your money too Euros not keep it is £'s as you detailed above and see an instant 30% uplift in it by changing it and changing it back. I have read previous articles on this site and seen people refer to the re-valuation of global currencies many many months ago etc surely this was advice worth noting. If you missed that move you may also miss the bottom of the market! Looking at it from an outsider. Winston
  4. As an English man who ocassionally visits the Island of Ireland I can conclude that there are more houses in the country than exists in my native land. I used to believe Ireland was like a patchwork quilt off green fields however on last inspection it was more like green fields and white houses abound. The country in Ireland is turning into urban sprawl. Come to my native land to see green fields now that N.Ireland has turned urban
  5. Not being from the area I cannot possibly comment However I am acutely aware the from over 200k so say £220,000 to £90,000 is a 60% drop. £90,000 may be too much, but as the old saying goes If my Granny had balls she would be my Granda ? I have learnt that you cannot bring back the past you cant undo things and give your Granny balls, but u seize an opportunity when it comes your way. Paying 90k is better than paying 160k Prices will return to their peaks I have seen it many times throughout my lifetime and through my passing. If you go by history the next peak is always greater than the last. Dont make the mistake owners/sellers made at peak and wait till prices went up that extra 5% which never actually came and watched their house / asset plummet in value, I bet they wish they had off got out a 5% under peak instead of looking for 5% over peak and never achieving it. You must look forward to the future and I would imagine it would be a lot cheaper to buy a house rather than rent at this price. W.Churchill
  6. JoeDavola I think it is very important you take into account that back in 1981 interest rates were 15% and it was the height of the troubles in Northern Ireland, In addition on this website it states that the long term average interest rate is 5% (link provided below) I notice many people refering too 7-8% which according the Bank of England and this website are wrong http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-base-rate-uk.php Also important to remember that like house prices interest rates work in cycles and at the peak of this cycle it was 5.75% and what happens? All the banks go bust and the financial system breaks down. What does that tell you about the current levels of debt. Dont be expecting interest rates to be rising any time soon. 1 and 2 % may look high over the next 5-7 years. What do you think would happen if they rose them significantly in the mean time? Winston PS How much was this house in Reid Street at the peak of the market ?
  7. This is something I have put a little thought into and I believe it will happen once alot of the current mess is cleared up. With Quantitive Easing set to start next month it will become easy for the Government to do this. i trust 2 of the things you may see is 1) Pensioners given a boost in their allowances (extra money) to comepnsate for lower interest rates and increased costs 2) The minumum wage increased substantially once enough money has being printed and starts to stick in the economy instead of being churned out with little consequence, which is what will happen at the start. Businesses will hardly object by this stage as they should be gaining from the printing presses and the additional money in circulation.
  8. Thank You JoeDavola for your kind words and for all the other posters above for your responses. I am grateful I am not treated like some of the previous posters on this site. I know we can look at history! which I can assure you can tell you alot, as I can tell with experience on my side, however, It can only tell us what has happened previously at a different time in history, usually under slightly different circumstances, one thing history cannot tell us is What lies ahead of us? Could it be a reinflation of money which sorts it out? or Could it be a depression greater than that of living memory ? Only time will tell, No-one that I have ever met has had an accurate Crystal Ball but I see that Crystal Balls and Palm readers seem to be a thing of the past with the technology and analysts taking over the more conventional methods which I prefer to use myself. No-one knows for certain the future, The future I can assure you is unpredicatble. I remember people saying Pigs would never fly! now I hear of them loading them into aeroplanes in crates and flying them to their destinations. This new-world amazes me
  9. As a newcomer to the site I notice that the NI Forum seems to get more activity than any other "regional area" in this site. I pose the question, What if Prices dont drop any more ? The reason I post it is that I have read previous posts from " regular posters" that whilst they see prices coming down and down and down, I also note that the same posters are looking at property and some property has caught their eye in terms of price etc. As an Englishman this confuses me? Which is it? Buy or Not to Buy ! ! That is the question? Regards Winston
  10. The Current Irish Government could possibly employ "Paul Daniels" the magician to pull something out of his hat, cos its not looking good over there, Maybe they could exchange Debbie Mc Gee for a few Billion Quid. Sounds like one hell of a trade in. Its time to call Paul Daniels I think! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OR9XSptXF_A
  11. Lets hope the chauffer is not like his passenger and doesnt fall asleep at the wheel. "Why O Why" did Number 10 not see this coming. Did they believe Bankers were the new superhero's ? Its a decent question which must be answered before heading to the Tower of London
  12. I an looking for a little info on an old property of mine and am looking to know, does anyone know how much this one has went down recently in the crash ? Thanks in Advance Churchill
  13. People have being saying this for a very long time, I believe Gold may not have reached its peak but is very close to it and once it does it tends to only go one way. Ne careful when you hear people on Bloomberg saying Buy gold ? Possibly they are trying to offload it. Sounds familiar to a about 7-8 months ago when we heard the arguements about buying Oil, when it plumetted. Food for thought
  14. I think the economy and the businesses need to get to that bottom pretty soon. For far to many if it gets much worse there will be very few businesses left. Accountants you talked to are spot on. Its a shame our current leaders couldnt have averted this crisis by keeping their eye on the ball and not letting things get so out of control. In my day if this situation happened and I was still in office, I think I would have resigned by now. As Jeff Randall reports on Sky News in this environment "Trust has being Lost" Churchill
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