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Confusion of VIs

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Everything posted by Confusion of VIs

  1. I think dangerous is the wrong word. The easily available and rapid LFT tests do have a false negative problem but realistically as this indicates you are not yet highly infectious they do greatly reduce the risk of infecting other people. As mentioned before, I am out every night this week at potentially dangerous Christmas parties, meals and drinks but i do take a LFT test immediately beforehand as do most of the people I will be meeting. For me this, and having received the booster 2 weeks ago, reduces the risk enough to carry on pretty much as normal.
  2. I agree but knowing what you are investing in is. In this case, knowing that, despite all the claims about new models, the competition is not coming (they just don't have the batteries) and that Musk's "sales" were actually just a tax efficient way for him to increase his stake. I bought the Musk "sales" inspired dip all the way down to 900 and, as I told you it would, once he completed his sales it bounced back. End result of the dip was he saved $2bn in tax. I hope you closed your short position as I don't think you will get a better opportunity. Once the Q4 figures come in the share price is unlikely to ever revisit $1000 and watch it go by the end of 2022 when it starts to dawn on people that in the long term the Tesla energy business will be bigger than the car business.
  3. You clearly have a very low bar for "work perfectly". Have a look at the UK gov and WHO estimates of the cost to the economy and loss of lives caused by transport related air pollution. Even scrapping brand new ICE's makes sense as the EV that replaces them will have recovered the Carbon cost of doing this within 2 to 5 years. Less if you stick some solar panels on your roof. My prediction for 2022 is that by the end of the year sales of ICEs will have collapsed and the waiting list for EVs will be massive.
  4. Better is greatly reducing our impact on the planet while raising living standards. Achievable by transferring current fossil fuel subsidies to renewables and investment in R&D.
  5. Hopefully it will make people want to properly insulate their houses and investigate how best they can reduce their electricity consumption. Or they could just carry on as before and enjoy all the opportunities for moaning about their energy bills.
  6. Catching Delta provides almost zero protection against Omicron. What makes you think Omicron will provide any protection against the next variant?
  7. SAGE's job is not to be a guiding light. It is to present the facts to government and where the facts are not known the range and likelihood of potential outcomes for the government to consider when making a decision. They did this and it turned out there was no right path all options have associated costs and risks. The government has chosen to rely on the British people being sensible and not unnecessarily going to places where there is a high risk of coming into contact with the virus. Not sure what else you were expecting SAGE to do. Out in London (Fitzrovia) last night the restaurant we were in was full and, apart from low end chains which seemed quiet, all the others we passed were full or at least busy.
  8. The status quo is unsustainable, so taking a breather or even stepping back is not an option. We need to move forward. "Build back better" comes to mind but would need to make it a reality not, as it currently is, just a slogan covering up more of the same.
  9. 61 and 57 both had suffered symptoms for at least a couple of years before going and getting it checked out. Apparently nurses are famous for late presentation after getting a self diagnosis wrong.
  10. Not that many. My wife is responsible for monitoring/ensuring safe(ish) resourcing levels in her Trust and the number of medically qualified staff refusing the vaccine is both small and concentrated at the lowest levels. Cleaners, porters and other ancillary staff refusing it is going to be a bigger issue or the trust. For medical staff the biggest problem is the number who after almost 1-2yrs working flat out are opting for retirement.
  11. Nurses aren't trained to diagnose, so not qualified to give medical advice. Two of our friends both highly qualified nurses incorrectly self diagnosed their bowel cancer as symptoms of their supposed Gluten intolerance, one died one survived but with a colostomy bag
  12. My companies staff are 50% non UK. Like many firms we are in London because it is the best place to recruit staff not on cost grounds. If London became unattractive in comparison with other global centres we would move. The bottom line is that London can easily afford its transport network, but to avoid a spiral of decline in future may have to spend more of its tax take within London.
  13. Many would argue that London's transport infrastructure was grossly overloaded, it may just end up running at capacity. If London does lose its edge, the high value businesses that makes London a cash cow are more likely to move abroad than to other parts of the UK.
  14. It's the politicians job to take other non medical factors into account and decide whether to take "the chance". Government policy, such as it is, was/is to trust people to act sensibly. What did you expect Whitty to say when asked what that meant, other than to advise people that during a period when case counts were heading to record levels would be sensible to minimise unnecessary contacts.
  15. But would the change of behaviour have happened if SAGE had said don't worry it's only a mild infection? If you were on SAGE would you say it was going to be milder than Delta before the data to prove that was in; while knowing you would be the public enquiry fall guy for an overwhelmed NHS and 10s of thousands of extra deaths if it turned out it wasn't.
  16. Unlike just about every other city, apart from Manchester, London pays its way and helps fund the rest of the UK. If London declines so will the rest of the UK. TFL's services are a vital part of the cities infrastructure and if necessary need to be funded from the taxes raised in London. Whether they are provided by private or public sector companies is a secondary issue. Levelling up just a slogan, the politicians know full well that any real attempt to divert funds or business from London will just result in levelling down. Two reasons for this are this will divert funds from the most productive areas and as London competes with other global cities more than other UK cities areas hampered by this policy are more likely to move offshore than relocate within the UK.
  17. I was being "sensible" until last weekend when my parents decided not to come down for Christmas. Now instead of being sensiblel we are going to enjoy nights out in a pleasantly busy, rather than the usual rammed, London. Good luck with your PCR test.
  18. At lunchtime Sky showed a slide with US CDC figures claiming that the vaxed are far less likely to catch Covid and 60 times less likely to die of it than the unvaccinated. Not bad for a "crappy vaccine" This is reassuring as I have Christmas parties/drinks every night this week and had my booster 10 days ago.
  19. It's much higher +90% in the high risk groups which make up +90% of the hospital admissions.
  20. "Admit it"? Of course modellers model what they are asked to. Your statement makes as much sense as saying computer programmers admit to following a specification.
  21. They are already refugees, what happens if Turkey says we cannot afford to support 4m refugees and passes them on to Europe.
  22. I suspect he realised that he had led the UK down a blind alley over NI and the ECoJ and that resigning over other issues is the only way he could avoid a train load of hate being directed at him from disillusioned Leave voters as he tries to walk back from his original hard line position.
  23. Forecasts are not predictions, they are projected outcomes based on a set of assumptions. Ferguson's modelling provided a warning about what would happen if action was not taken to reduce Covid spreading. He is still well regarded, as despite all the noise generated by the hard of understanding, a detailed review of his model found no material errors.
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