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Confusion of VIs

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Everything posted by Confusion of VIs

  1. Struggling to see the insults, even with the benefit of you quoting my post twice.
  2. What have you done with your stash of cash, not a great time to leave it in the bank.
  3. The all share index is heavily influenced by global companies so still over 50% of earning/sales from abroad. In any case looking at share indices are a very poor way of judging how well the UK is doing. Brexiteers reject any of the attempts at assessing how well things are going (because they all say about as badly as expected, with a total loss of around 7% of GDP). Rejected attempts all discussed at length upthread include: 1. Against pre referendum forecasts - it's forgotten that in 2014/15 forecasters were saying the UK was entering a golden decade and on track to overtake Germanies GDP 2. Many accounting firms created doppelganger models to asses whether the UK was diverging from the norm. These all showed the UK's economy falling behind from the date of the referendum (more recent analysis indicates that this started from the date the referendum was called) 3. The OBR's most recent forecast is that Brexit will lead to a permanent loss of 4% of GDP, this is on top of the loss that had already happened prior to our actual leaving date, so also around 7% in total. This has been accepted by the Treasury and forms the basis for their forward planning. That all sounds a bit childish. Like any developed country the UK will always have a queue of people wanting to come here. The East Europeans will be easily replaced by people from poorer parts of the world. What makes you think Remainers loved or even liked the EU, most that I know just think that in the round it was a better option than self harming via Brexit.
  4. You do realise that's a global index? Still I suppose it's nice to know the rest of the world is doing ok.
  5. This is a non story NZ decided to allow Euthanasia before Covid appeared. In the UK they Euthanise you slowly by withdrawing care, restricting fluids and finally, giving large doses of opiate pain killers etc. Polls show support for legal assisted Euthanasia running at around 75%.
  6. I suspect I would find it a lot easier to brew up 50kwh of electricity from my rooftop than you would 10g of homebrew diesel from??.
  7. Not as bad as last year is not good. Omicron's biggest effect is on staff availability over 15% unavailable because of Covid related absences since Christmas day.
  8. This is magical thinking, there is no windfall as more money spent on gas and electricity means less spent elsewhere.
  9. At one London trust, ambulances are right now stacking up with patients they cannot get into A&E. While A&E is full of people who should be admitted but are waiting for a bed to become free. My wife, who is meant to be on holiday, was in work for 12hr yesterday and is back in today trying to help manage the surge by cancelling non urgent clinics, diagnostics and operations so that staff can be diverted to help with the incoming patients and to provide cover for staff with Covid. I imagine there is not a lot of laughing going on.
  10. They will be cheaper than ICE by 2025, maybe sooner Battery "weakening" is a non issue. my car has lost 1% after almost 60k miles. The use rare earths, Cobalt and Nickel etc. in batteries and motors is rapidly reducing or being eliminated as alternatives such as Iron are being commercialised. Once there is a genuine alternative it will make sense to start charging ICE users the true cost of all the pollution they emit and banning them from cities. You don't see people using supermarket chargers because they don't need to. I don't travel +150m to go to the supermarket so have never needed to use one of their chargers (in fact I have never needed to use a public charger). I predict that by the end of 2022 even you will be beginning to see the light.
  11. No they don't. Today VW has zero battery plants, they are currently they or two one in Sweden opening in 2023 and one in Germany opening in 2025 and have plans for four more that will in total give them 240Gwh of production capacity by 2030 (as does Ford). Tesla will pass this by 2023 and have plans for 3Twh by 2030. The Ionic 5 is a very good car but Hyundai and Kia are even more battery constrained than VW. (Mainly because until around 12 months ago they were betting heavily on Hydrogen fuel cells being the future). They are aiming to be able to produce 150,000 a yr by 2024. You have a short position, how you close that is immaterial. What do you know about the energy business? What scary You tube videos?
  12. That happens only if and once we make the change, if people decide its all too much cost/hassle and don't invest in the future then we will need to get used to paying lots more for our energy. The current high prices are a boon for the renewables industry as new wind and solar investments are massively profitable at current prices. Eventually renewable rather than gas price will be what sets the market price but we are some way off that yet.
  13. From the National grid There is definitely enough energy and the grid can cope easily A fag packet calc supports this as the amount of electricity required to replace ice cars with EVs is surprisingly small. 33m cars, Av mileage 7,400 @ 4m/kwr = 61,050, Gwh per year = 7GW of capacity In reality the load will be lower than this, the 4m/kwh is for a 2020 Tesla model 3 but as the move to EVs continues most will be smaller/less powerful than this and efficiency is still increasing. The peak load will be managed by pricing structures that encourage off peak charging.
  14. Perhaps China will just buy say 2m sq miles of land off Russia. It would avoid risking a nuclear war and Russia doesn't have anything like the wealth or population needed to develop the Eastern half of the country. Already parts of it are becoming home to more Chinese workers than native Russians.
  15. We are already close to the tipping point. ICE sales are already collapsing in China, Europe is going down the same path and the US won't be far behind. The chip shortage story is a handy cover story for collapsing demand. By the end of next year, while they may not yet be able to buy the EV they want people will have realised that cheap EVs are coming plus that ICEs are on they way out and will hold off buying a new car for a year or two. This itself will kill many legacy companies.
  16. Of course not an over night transition but it's hugely in own own interest to start now and move rapidly. Delay 2 or 3 years and we will be buying all of the tech needed to achieve it from China rather than developing our own industries. China is looking forward to the new world and by moving rapidly has already captured 70% of the worlds solar and 60% of the worlds EV markets.
  17. Rental sector is easily tackled, just require landlords to raise standards to an A rating (that's pretty low by modern standards). If they cannot afford it they need to sell at a price that will allow the new owner to meet the A standard. Private home owners will need to put their hands in their pockets (with gov help re 30yr low interest loans) and take a 30yr view on their investment. Alternatively they can just keep paying 2 or 3 x on their energy bills.
  18. If you run the numbers the national grid today would easily stand up to electrifying private transport. The big challenge is replacing gas used for heating and in industry. Lots of work to be done but achievable if we switch subsidies from fossil fuels to renewables, inc Nuclear if costs can be brought down to match 24 x 7 wind and solar.
  19. I think dangerous is the wrong word. The easily available and rapid LFT tests do have a false negative problem but realistically as this indicates you are not yet highly infectious they do greatly reduce the risk of infecting other people. As mentioned before, I am out every night this week at potentially dangerous Christmas parties, meals and drinks but i do take a LFT test immediately beforehand as do most of the people I will be meeting. For me this, and having received the booster 2 weeks ago, reduces the risk enough to carry on pretty much as normal.
  20. I agree but knowing what you are investing in is. In this case, knowing that, despite all the claims about new models, the competition is not coming (they just don't have the batteries) and that Musk's "sales" were actually just a tax efficient way for him to increase his stake. I bought the Musk "sales" inspired dip all the way down to 900 and, as I told you it would, once he completed his sales it bounced back. End result of the dip was he saved $2bn in tax. I hope you closed your short position as I don't think you will get a better opportunity. Once the Q4 figures come in the share price is unlikely to ever revisit $1000 and watch it go by the end of 2022 when it starts to dawn on people that in the long term the Tesla energy business will be bigger than the car business.
  21. You clearly have a very low bar for "work perfectly". Have a look at the UK gov and WHO estimates of the cost to the economy and loss of lives caused by transport related air pollution. Even scrapping brand new ICE's makes sense as the EV that replaces them will have recovered the Carbon cost of doing this within 2 to 5 years. Less if you stick some solar panels on your roof. My prediction for 2022 is that by the end of the year sales of ICEs will have collapsed and the waiting list for EVs will be massive.
  22. Better is greatly reducing our impact on the planet while raising living standards. Achievable by transferring current fossil fuel subsidies to renewables and investment in R&D.
  23. Hopefully it will make people want to properly insulate their houses and investigate how best they can reduce their electricity consumption. Or they could just carry on as before and enjoy all the opportunities for moaning about their energy bills.
  24. Catching Delta provides almost zero protection against Omicron. What makes you think Omicron will provide any protection against the next variant?
  25. SAGE's job is not to be a guiding light. It is to present the facts to government and where the facts are not known the range and likelihood of potential outcomes for the government to consider when making a decision. They did this and it turned out there was no right path all options have associated costs and risks. The government has chosen to rely on the British people being sensible and not unnecessarily going to places where there is a high risk of coming into contact with the virus. Not sure what else you were expecting SAGE to do. Out in London (Fitzrovia) last night the restaurant we were in was full and, apart from low end chains which seemed quiet, all the others we passed were full or at least busy.
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