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Confusion of VIs

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Everything posted by Confusion of VIs

  1. I do understand exponentials but's that not relevant because, as I said, this (his) simplistic argument has been pretty conclusively debunked. Some problems with it: 1 Population growth is not exponential in fact growth is slowing 2 Oil use per unit of GDP is growing rapidly 3 Over the past 5 years improved oil extraction technology has vastly increased the lifespan of existing fields and made huge amounts of additional reserves viable 4 Ignores impact of price rises on consumption 5 Ignores the fact that we are already entering a new post fossil fuel age Getting carried away with exponentials can lead you to some rather strange conclusions - I recall a being at a maths class a long long time ago where the teacher demonstrated this by carrying out a similar calculation on the increasing use of stone tools and showing that if growth continued at the same pace the whole world would have been converted into stone axes by around the time Christ was born.
  2. The maximum population theory has been pretty much debunked over the last 20 years. IIRC current forecasts are that by 2050 the world could feed its projected population while at the same time reducing the amount of land required to do this by an area the size of India. Oil is not going to run out, extraction technology is progressing at a rapid pace and the use of oil has already peaked in much of the developed world.
  3. I am not sure that world ever existed, even 150 years ago the average lifespan was 33 and most of the world lived in abject poverty.
  4. Why should the first safe country carry the responsibility, surely the load should be shared based upon population of maybe GDP.
  5. Not so sure about that, I am sure that in the event of a collapse the F***wit defence will be employed. Basically it goes I now realise I should have known what I was doing but didn't because I am a F***wit. The mortgage company and its advisers knew I was a F***wit and took advantage of me by offering me lots IO loans that I could never repay. Now prices have crashed and they want their money back and I haven't got it, I am a F***ed F***wit It's ​not Fair I deserve compensation ​​It's not that dissimilar to the case made by some fairly large businesses who claimed that they did not have the resources necessary to understand the potential implications of interest rate swaps they were sold. I wouldn't bet against it happening and it becoming another misselling gravy train. It could be one of those rare legal cases where claimants could improve their chances by representing themselves. Edit to try and correct the formatting. That didn't work. Not much WYSIWYG going on at the moment
  6. Well maybe it will never convince you, but I am not sure you have made any argument, as bureaucracy is unavoidable whether we are in or out of the EU. Also there is no guarantee that leaving the EU will reduce it. Remember we do not have a separate layer of EU law all of what you call the EU's bureaucracy all of the regulation/directives are implemented by UK law and will remain in force even after we leave the EU. In fact given the UK's history of taking every available opportunity to gold plate EU directives, it's entirely possible that we will manage to increase the total level of bureaucracy and that's before we even consider the fact that our exporters/importers will need to deal with additional layers of EU bureaucracy. NB Why do you keep referring to me wanting to deny things, my views have been consistent throughout and at the moment I see no obvious reason to reconsider them.
  7. 2011 was probably the ideal time to buy in Croydon. Prices had been pretty much stagnant since the "crash" but took off in 12/13 and have carried on going up since then. Your friend may well have doubled his money. Looking at the first entry I could find on houseprices.io for a flat sold in 2011 and recently resold brought up: Address: Flat 3, 19 Thornhill Road, Croydon, CR0 2XZ Type: Flat Tenure: Leasehold New build: Transaction type: Standard price paid transaction Registered sales: Date Price Nominal change Real change 21 Jul 2016 £245,000 59.1% 53.1% 20 Dec 2013 £154,000 46.7% 38.6% 09 Dec 2011 £105,000 31.3% -5.0% 11 Jan 2002 £80,000 39.1% 35.2% 03 Mar 2000 £57,500 18.6% 15.3% Obviously not a new build and only a sample of one but it shows pretty well the take off in prices that happened in 2012. current position is prices have peaked, and for the first time in years inventories are building up with the less desirable properties not selling. It might be just another pause, but Croydon is not the relative bargain it was in 2011 and I think this time it may be a turning point, especially given the number of new builds and office conversions coming on to the market. Edit to restore formatting
  8. Show me a government or trade group that is different, wherever you look the little man's voice is always drowned out by the lobbying of large corporations. To paraphrase Jim Hacker, you seem to have adopted an attitude of. We have lots of big problems, so we must do something big to solve them. Leaving the EU is something big, therefore we must leave the EU. A common thread, among Leave voters, is a desire for things to go back to they way they were in some previous better time, coupled with a belief that leaving the EU will somehow achieve this. My view is that they are just railing against the effects of globalisation (plus problems caused by local UK incompetence) and leaving the EU will in fact exacerbate the impact of globalisation on the UK, as we charge ahead trying to win the race to the bottom. A side effect of Brexit which, you would have thought would be discussed more on here, is that House Prices are likely to go and remain higher for longer; as the economy is further stimulated to try and avoid a recession. I was amazed to learn that on the night of the vote Carney made £250bn of additional liquidity available to the banks to prevent a run on Sterling.
  9. It not about what I think. Many of the leading Brexiters seem to think we are featherbedded, with lots of unnecessary EU spawned worker protections/rights; which makes me wonder why many of the people on here are looking forward to changes that are likely to benefit the owners and managers of Capital at the expense of the workers. No need to apologise, it sounds like you will have more problem with the coming changes than me.
  10. It would. There is no logic in drawing in immigrants who cannot support themselves, and although the number of cases may too small to have a genuinely significant financial/social impact it still provides the likes of the Mail and Express with raw material for their rabid anti-immigrant stories.
  11. Presentation. May will need to do something to provide an impression of progress during the negotiations, also it is something that definitely would command majority support.
  12. You don't seem to share Fox's and Davis's vision of Brexit. The one where we become a nimble free trading powerhouse by dispensing with all those unnecessary regulations/workers rights and grows by undercutting the featherbedded EU and USA. I have read a fair bit of the material produced by them and cannot recall slowing down or quality of life being referred to anywhere.
  13. We could do that today, why haven't we. Even though nothing to do with Brexit it would be seen as a big win for May.
  14. Will it be a surprise if they completely f*** it up, playing politics rather than addressing reality.
  15. Because he never expected to have to honour his pledge. He didn't expect an outright win in 2015 and expected the Lib Dems to veto any referendum.
  16. For my kids the 60s might as well be the stone age, imagine no Internet or smartphones.
  17. Part of my objection to Brexit is that the likes of Fox see winning the race to the bottom as a key part of their strategy, for making an economic success of Brexit. Unfortunately success will be defined as increased return on capital and a higher national GDP and the policies to achieve this will further fuel the asset price boom and increase inequality.
  18. That's just an unprovable assertion. The fact is prior to joining the EU we had been growing at little more than half the rate of the EEC countries for over 10 years, too long to be explained by an economic cycle, post joining our growth rates have kept up with all the major European countries.
  19. Why do you think leaving the EU will improve things, non EU immigration is already higher than EU immigration. The free marketers like Fox, Hannan and even Farrage never promised to cut migration. In Fox's vision of a brave new sweatshop economy any migrant prepared to undercut the lazy overpaid UK workers will be more than welcome. Also by the time we finally achieve Brexit it is likely that just about all of the EE citizens who want to come here will be here already.
  20. Why would I wan to deny it, it's a massive problem/risk that no one seems able to find a workable way through. You can only ignore reality for so long,
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