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Confusion of VIs

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Everything posted by Confusion of VIs

  1. I wouldn't say they were a bad idea Per Se but definitely companies were too slow to update them to reflect increasing life spans and declining investment returns. Also the final salary aspect is grossly unfair to most staff, current moves to career average basis are fairer and more sustainable. Re the actuaries: some did warn about increasing lifespans 20-30 years ago, but for a long time the consensus was this was a blip that would peter out. Recovery plans are already a massive drag on many companies, some of which will be brought down by the impossibility of servicing this debt. Especially as the Pension Regulator is being encouraged by government to be more aggressive in requiring firms to produce and adhere to credible recovery plan - BHS scandal will no doubt ratchet this up further As for the public sector, all I can say is it is a good job the government has a printing press.
  2. I don't know how strong how hand is but, I am not fully convinced by the trade balance argument - in % terms we need them more than they need us and anyway the future will be about services not stuff. I suspect May would settle for Norway with some restrictions on free movement. Fox is hard right slime ball in the pocket of big business, I doubt many would find whatever he came up with attractive, hopefully he is just been set up to fail. NB I would definitely draw the line at having to drive an American car.
  3. That's a tricky one, depends on whether or not you believe Merv actions saved the economy. The impact of the Brexit vote is much simpler to see, currently £100bn and I suspect heading towards £200bn if we do get into negative rates. To throw in a bit of silver lining, Brexit looks like costing Philip Green an extra £150m or so.
  4. Yes, but May is believed to favour staying as close to the EU as possible (Norway option?). This is technically Brexit but I doubt it would satisfy many of the posters on this thread.
  5. :unsure:I can honestly say that this is the first time I have been accused of being a leftie.
  6. Let's see £ nose dived seconds after the first results came in pointing to a vote for Leave and had lost around 13% of its value against the $ by the morning (Gilts also immediately spiked). Can you see any link between the above and the Brexit vote. (If not it would be interesting to hear what you would regards as evidence). NB If you accept the above then the £100bn increase in pension deficits is also down to Brexit (it's just basic maths)
  7. All of that may be true but doesn't alter the fact that the pension deficit is currently £100bn bigger than it was, and now has to addressed in companies recovery plans submitted to the the Pensions Regulator. NB It will also significantly increase companies Pension Protection Fund levy payments.
  8. Hopefully to get a decent majority of the country to sign up to a concrete proposal - all we have at the moment is a slender majority in favor of some form of Brexit. I suspect as the details are worked out the arguments between the Brexiters will become very heated/divisive and it will become clear there is not a majority for any single proposal. A second referendum would allow a choice between competing proposals (status quo not being an option).
  9. In this case, that argument is about as convincing as a bus driver running over a pedestrian and claiming that his resulting death was nothing to do with him. I now understand that you do not intend to accept any possibility of any negative outcome arising from the Brexit decision, no matter how strong the evidence is - I wonder why, are you trying to supress doubts about the wisdom of your position now that at least some of the project fear (or should that be project reality) predictions seem to be playing out.
  10. Not sure where you are coming from with that comment. and what happens if you cannot get a good deal
  11. Why is it so hard to understand that Brexit has made an existing problem worse - £100bn worse!
  12. Democracy is an ongoing process not a one off event. I cannot see anything inherently wrong with holding​ a second referendum once the details of our Leaving the EU are agreed. It would put pressure on all sides to come up with a good Brexit package and could help reunite the country.
  13. It started out as educated (as reported in Ashcrofts' poll breakdown) I think you substituted clever for my educated.
  14. It's long enough to be beyond any sensible forecasting range. Any view we take on what the world will be like then is at best an educated guess or more likely an expression of faith.
  15. Nobody is saying all clever people voted to remain but there is a fairly strong statistical bias that way. More relevant is that like all referendums it provided people who felt disenfranchised for whatever reason with an opportunity to kick the government, rather than answer the question - an important factor with such a close vote.
  16. I have considered it but am finding it hard to convince myself that it is. So far project fear (ignoring Osborne's ridiculous punishment budget) is panning out pretty much as expected. If this does end well it will over the very long term, I accept the potential for a better future in 10-15years time. It is their children's future that they were playing with not theirs. Also the most bigoted views I heard came from older people - I heard one say he was voting Leave because of Gay marriage???? Statistically the company director (being in the AB group) would probably have voted Remain, I have never actually met a media studies graduate so don't know.
  17. I nailed it as well, even put a bet on a Leave win. However my take on why was different to yours. After listening to debates in Blackpool, I realised that for lots of people the referendum was a too good to miss chance to give the government a kicking for whatever issues were of concern to them, irrespective of whether it had anything to do with leaving the EU. The hard part now will be finding a way forward that doesn't divide the country even further. Whatever variety of Brexit is agreed I expect to be hearing lots of cries of betrayal. I expect you will have something to say when it becomes clear that taking control of immigration is not the same as cutting it (another "promise" that apparently was never made). Still at least Bruce got what he wanted NB Lots of us nailed it. The number of bets being placed was running at 3 to 1 for leave for at least a couple of weeks before the poll. This wasn't reflected in the odds as Remain bets were on average about 10 times larger than those for Leave and as the bookies are only concerned with the amount of money being placed on each side they ignored the fact that the voters only get one vote each.
  18. You are asserting it, not explaining it. In the run up to the vote the BBC polled prospective Leave voters and found that the most influential factor in their deciding to vote Leave was the "promised" extra £350m a week for the NHS - you could argue this was an economic factor. Also did the Leave voters really accept there would be a negative impact upon the economy - the ones I spoke to dismissed such warnings as nonsense and just more proof of project fear.
  19. It occurred the day after the referendum (in fact beginning within seconds of the first results came through indicating the possibility of a Leave vote - with the instant fall in Sterling and start of the slide in bond yields). The month delay is just the time it took to collect, process and publish the data.
  20. That was a depressing read. To sum up the future course of the UK has been set by a collation of the old, idle and uneducated - what could possibly go wrong.
  21. Yes the gap has been there for years and firms have been struggling to fill it for years. Now following the Leave vote its suddenly got £100bn bigger, not sure what part of that you find misleading or why its cheap journalism. The real world impact is that UK firms will now have to agree pension fund recovery plans with the pension regulator - even assuming it will accept a 10 year recovery plan that's an extra £10bn a year out of company investment/profits/dividends for the next 10 years.
  22. Those numbers are as real as any other and what pays the company pensions. If there is a projected shortfall this has to be made up in the here and now by increasing payments into the pension fund, leaving less money for investment and dividends.
  23. I agree people are angry, but what are they angry about. I spent a fair bit of time in Blackpool (68% Leave vote) in the run up to the referendum and was amazed at how angry people were but it was all unfocused; a general belief that everything in the world was better in the past and leaving the EU would somehow bring back the good old times. I suspect that whatever happens going forward most of those people are going to be disappointed with the outcome and will remain angry. Which party will benefit from that anger is anyone's guess.
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