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Confusion of VIs

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Everything posted by Confusion of VIs

  1. And you think a much poorer Slovakia should take more of the pain caused by Brexit than us because?
  2. So you made a comment claiming that the EU is a vindictive organisation based upon the position of May in a picture. Unfortunately you got your facts completely wrong in reality May was at the centre of the picture, by your logic, this presumably proves they are still all friends. Yet somehow your view of the EU remains the same. How does that work
  3. One of the things I cannot quite understand is the Brexit supporters on this thread, who are probably far better informed about Brexit than the average member of the public, keep equating Brexit with reducing immigration. As far as I can see none of the people charged with implementing Brexit share that view. Just yesterday Daniel Hannan was asked about this on the Daily Politics and responded that he thought immigration would probably go down a little bit, as it would have even if we had decided to stay in the EU. Liam Fox has said that controlling immigration shouldn't be equated with reducing it and it could actually go up. Boris has said he is pro immigration.
  4. Neither but I can separate noises off from mainstream opinion. For every EU official metaphorically shaking his fist at us we could find a ranting swivel eyed loon opining on what the EU must do or else.
  5. All this is saying is the UK has to be seen to lose the benefits of membership, so no cherry picking. Hollande has also said he respects the decision of the British people and will not seek to hinder the UK leaving the EU. Why do the Brexiters feel the need to try and twist not continuing to get something you have decided you don't want and won't pay for into coercion. Perhaps you really did believe we were going to have our cake and eat it.
  6. You are forgetting that a large part of the EU values FoM and joined the single market on the basis that their citizens would have equal standing with those of the other states. How would it be fair to remove that right, while still allowing those opt out countries full access to the single market. Of course despite what the leaders may say publically FoM is negotiable but as it has a value and any opt out would have to be paid for. A very strong and persistent (since a few days after the vote) rumour in Brussels is that for the UK FoM could be limited to Fo Labor in return for the dropping of the rebate. The low paid migrants are a problem of the UK's making, they are only here because of our benefits system and we could change/stop that in or out of the EU. If we are made an example of it will only be in reaction to UK politicians raising unrealistic expectations by claiming we can have our cake and eat it.
  7. Where do you get the idea that the UK will be punished from. We don't want to pay our subs and are leaving the club. Somehow you and many other Brexiters seem to have convinced themselves that a fair deal is one where we refuse to accept the rules of the club, stop paying our subs, leave the club yet keep access to the nice bits. All I have heard is European leaders gently explaining to us that Leave means Leave. If you don't like the reality of what Leaving entails then perhaps you should have considered that when deciding how to vote.
  8. The truth is May will get the best deal she can for Britain, another truth is she is not in control of the process and whether we muck in or not the deal will be decided by the other 27, yet another truth is the EU decision making process is so complex that it will be close to impossible to conclude a deal other than we leave on WTO terms.
  9. Not sure what the point of your post was but I suppose so, and maybe regional/EU aid for UK/EU firms investing in poorer parts of the UK.
  10. You must have read a different article. In the one I read, he just stated that he would expect the UK to honor all the contracts we have entered into. Which of course we will do as if we are going to be touring the world looking for new trade deals it wouldn't help us much if we had just defaulted on the last lot.
  11. For balance you could list all of the foreign investments made by UK firms in that time frame.
  12. Even without the vested interest that is the reality in Croydon at the moment. I follow the Croydon market (CR0) quite closely, as I live there and am currently helping a family member who moved to London and has been looking to buy a 3 bed at up to £500k in East Croydon for about a year now (I should say, helping with viewings etc, not cash). To sum up the market over that time: Oct 15 to March 16 - absolutely nuts anything reasonable going for well over asking price within a couple of days April to Sept - market cooled slightly once it was too late to beat the second property stamp duty hike and maybe Brexit jitters, property taking longer to sell but anything reasonable going under offer for asking price or slightly over within a few weeks. Less desirable properties beginning to stick. For a while I thought this was a turning point but since then the market has really picked up again. Good properties are again going under offer quickly at asking price. In my own area a couple of houses that had been put on the market at what I thought were kite flying +£1m prices both quickly went under offer. To try to get an idea of how quickly places are selling, I have been tracking the % of houses that are under offer over the past year. It's currently running at 40% which although a reduction from earlier in the year is still high by most standards. So while there may be a ripple of price reductions on its way from the centre, it hasn't reached Croydon yet. However there are huge numbers of expensive new builds/office conversions hitting the market now which could help produce a turning point.
  13. The problem with globalisation is that it will ultimately make most citizens of the western states relatively worse off and widen visible inequalities within those states. Unfortunately it is probably unstoppable so governments have to decide whether to embrace it and try to take advantage of any opportunities offered or manage/delay it. The EU is pretty clearly in the manage/delay camp whereas the vision driving Brexit (at least among the Ministers driving it) is to embrace globalisation and try and take advantage of the free trade opportunities it offers. So far I have not seen anything which makes me think this is strategy that will provide a better future for most people in the UK. My fear is we will be quickly sucked into a race to the bottom, trying to compete with much poorer countries selling low/mid tech products while at the same time facing barriers to selling our high tech products and services into the worlds richest economies; especially as all the major trading blocks seem to be becoming increasingly protectionist. That's why despite agreeing with almost all of your post I think Beixit will be bad for the UK.
  14. I don't recall them being forced to go on a debt fueled spending spree. I do recall a telegraph columnist being called a racist for suggesting that the Euro was a very bad idea because the southern states would use their new found borrowing power to go on a debt fueled spending spree. They do have several means of escape, either to everyone's surprise austerity will work, or part of the debt will have to be written off, or they leave the Euro and convert the debt back into Drachma.
  15. Did you think it was a secret? Edit Oh No now someone else is trying to let the cat out of the bag, even worse it's the CEO of the CS http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/brexit-too-much-for-the-civil-service-7cg7drwjk At this rate it won't be long before Merkel gets to hear of it.
  16. How do you weaken a position that seems to consist only of "we will get the best deal we can for Britain" and could equally well be translated as "we will accept whatever we are given".
  17. 2. Ministers come and go. Civil servants are there for the long term and generally keep lots of extremely sensitive information secret, leaking almost always comes as a result of Ministers ignoring advice. As the CS doesn't have a safe or effective whistle blowing system its the only way to get information into the public domain without waving goodbye to your career. Unless you have worked there and experienced it at first hand it's pretty pointless trying to make sense of the CS culture from outside, its probably about as transparent as the Kremlin.
  18. Well as it now appears government staff up to DG level were involved in providing input most people would think that's fair comment. The government now seems to be relying on we haven't paid for it, which as the CS routinely does the procurement paperwork for individual pieces of consultancy work months after the event is a poor defence.
  19. This takes naivety to a new level. The government always uses their suppliers as whipping boys when inconvenient facts come to light, the suppliers know to cooperate if they want any further work and just suck up the criticism. This is what has happened here and unfortunately for the government has been clearly exposed. Did you not read the links I posted, or think it strange that another separate source had come to exactly the same conclusion about the state of affairs re Brexit.
  20. Now it looks like we might not be able to afford to Brexit http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/60bn-divorce-demand-could-wreck-mays-hopes-of-a-deal-prb68d50k Again it's something that has been discussed at length on this thread months ago and is somehow now being portrayed as a surprise.
  21. Well this would suggest so http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/15/angela-merkel-suggests-she-is-willing-to-compromise-on-free-move/ It is also formed part of the rumor that was going round Brussels within a few days of the referendum that I posted at the time. It said that the UK would be offered two choices Remaining (possibly dressed up as some sort of associate membership, and with some concession on FoM) or the hardest of Brexits. The FoM restrictions would apply in any state that wanted to adopt them, so as not to encourage other to threaten to leave to get the UK deal. I posted it at the time not knowing whether it had any real substance to it but within days exact phrases from the rumor were being voiced by Merkel and Hollande and since then nothing has happened that contradicted it.
  22. I cannot believe either of you are as naïve as these posts make out, so it must be time for fingers in the ears and singing La, La, La. My understanding is that the document was an internal briefing note intended to assist Deloitte's understanding of the state of play with a view to identifying opportunities to offer their services (writing such notes is a core part of any senior consultants job) . As such it probably has more credibility than a commissioned piece of work, anyone who has worked in the CS and seen how consultants are briefed from the outset about what is and is not acceptable to put in their reports will know what I mean. More to the point, the note contains no surprises. All of the issues it raises have been known for months and it probably greatly understates the scale of the problems. E,g, 500 new projects required to implement Brexit, I doubt that would be enough for just the Home Office. If you said 5000 you might be getting close. Edit I have just seen the Times article, looks like the government denial has pretty much fallen apart. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/chaos-and-confusion-over-plans-for-brexit-m6bpc3d2h
  23. If we manage to do a trade deal that rivals the EU;s single market, walking away from that will be just as disruptive and painful. Trade deals take huge investments in time and effort to create and then your economy adapts to take advantage of any new opportunities offered, walking away from the deal that means writing off all of that investment.
  24. Which bit of the memo did you find dodgy or misleading. Or is it just the fact they published a leaked document.
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