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Confusion of VIs

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Everything posted by Confusion of VIs

  1. I thought it was obvious, the low interest rates are there to let the banks rebuild their asset base by charging a margin that could not be supported if interest rates were at normal levels. Just last week I checked the interest rate I was getting on my A&L online saver ("high interest") account it was 0.1%!!! Meanwhile they are charging an SVR of 4.99%
  2. How do you know that the report you saw was correct. A relative works for one of the majors in quite a senior position in the section that produces production/reserve forecasts, However because no one person ever gets to see the full picture and, in addition, misleading information is deliberately circulated to make it impossible for anyone to tell if leaked information is accurate or not. If you really belive what you seen is correct, you can make your fortune by investing in small oil firms that have long term rights to low production fields - the onest that extract the dregs of fields abandonded by the majors in the USA would be a good bet.
  3. Unless of course you contract bowel cancwer from years of living on canned crap.
  4. People will be happy to save, even at current rates, it they are worried about their future job security and pensions.
  5. There is no way the £ is going to join the Euro in the next 3 years. Just spend a moment thinking about the practicalities, it would require: : The Tories to execute a 180 degree turn on Europe : Winning a referendum on entry : The rest of the EU agreeing to accept the UK joining, and locking in a highly competitive exchange rate : Ignoring all the existing rules on stability and deficits Just possibly if Cameron is replaced by a Lib/Lab government in 2015 we might be in by about 2019.
  6. I doubt if he will be gaining anything after taking Sterling's dive into account.
  7. So your logic is there are X jobs in the UK no more no less. Follow that logic and you will find yourself in BNP kick out the immigrants and everything will be fine territory.
  8. What does your landlord gain from spending money insulating the house you rent from them -- only this time they can boast about the extra insulation and increase the rent. Sorry couldn't resist
  9. Take a dictaphone and record the conversation you have with them, should be enough to get the EA fired if he tries to deny it.
  10. If you are going to susidise mortgages, I don't see any logic in why it should be limited to the value of an average house. After all there is no cap on paying taxes.
  11. Possibly it was that saving the country from Hitler thing, that I am reliably told people thought was rather more important than house prices at the time.
  12. This outcome is only stable (and therefore possible) with a much stronger central core to the - EU single foreign policy, defence forces, tax structure and sharing of natural resources. But of course with this it loses much of its attraction to the various small entities who are looking to gain advantage by breaking off from larger states.
  13. You seem to be forgetting that poeple voted for Thatcher because they thought country was already heading at speed along the road to ruin and wanted to get off.
  14. There is no minimum time you have to live in a property to claim, lettings relief but you have to be able to pusuade your tax man that you genuinely lived there as your main home. So it depends on circumstance, move in on Monday, unexpectedly lose your job on Tuesday and decide to rent it out to cover bills on Wednesday and you might be ok. In your LL's case I think much under a year would be looked at pretty suspiciusly.
  15. Recently I read an article about new property funds being formed to set up large scale BTL companies. I am sure the Wilson's empire, of real houses rather than new builds, would be of interest if the price is right. However, at a guess any fund would want a 10% gross return so if we assume 700 houses at an average rent of 700pm income is 5.88m per year giving a value of about 60m. If 60m is not enough to keep them solvent then they are in trouble, I cannot see a sale to lots of small investors raising much, the advantages of a single sale, stable values and income, would be lost. Replaced by buying into a firesale with no guarantee the market could adsorb the number of properties on sale.
  16. A big difference between today and yesteryear is that whem I purchased in 1983 I, like everyone else I knew, accepted that the eating out, pubbing, holidays etc had to stop while I first saved for a deposit and then paid around £60% (3.25 times salary at 14%) of my wage in mortgage. For the first couple of years after I purchased my mortgage, bills and work travel amounted to 100% of my salary and I survived by letting out a room and living off the income.
  17. Why do you think you will probably lose your money, surely this would only happen if RBS failed. given that HMG owns most of the bank this implies that the goverment will default on its promise to support the bank. This doesn't seem to fit with your belief that they will honour the 1.3 Trillion public sector pension promise.
  18. Had a look today and lots of new properties have suddenly come onto the marker here (Croydon) as well. Prices are high though, I reckon most are only 5-10% below peak, so it will interesting to see if any actually sell.
  19. I did say half decent, there are a few pokey new developments too far from the centre and train stations that probably will never be easy to sell or rent but, if you are looking to rent, the places you would actually want to live in go as soon as they are advertised.
  20. I would rent to if I could get a 400k house at £900 a month, where are you renting, Here (Croydon) you would be looking at £1600-2000.
  21. First its hard not to question the value of polling HPC members for their view on this, bit like asking the BNP if imigration is a good thing - suspect you know the result of the poll already. Second perhaps things are different this time, a couple of possible pointers: we have a lifetime tracker at about 1%, in previous times we would have taken advantage of low prices and moved, crytalising the drop in value of our property, however this times if we move the new mortgage goes to 5.5% so we are staying put. Also perhaps the fact that this is the first generation who, in large numbers, will inherit property wealth will make a difference e,g. recently friends grandmother dies large detached house sold (no shortage of buyers for these) for 600k money passes to children and grand children who immediately use this to buy three FTB houses. I have recently moved from bearish to haven't a clue camp, will give it until Christmas but if a big dowmturn hasn't occurred by then I think HPC must be over.
  22. That's a bit harsh, admitting reality doesn't mean you are happy with it. It would love to be proved wrong - hopefully private pensions will be resored by a stock market boom and the public sector pensions will turn out to be affordable. In fact I an a very VI, if I get it my civil service pension will be 3 times Micks, but just wanting a particular outcome doesn't make it happen.
  23. The effect is the same, inflation will quickly eat away their accrued benefits.
  24. Nothing to do with them, no profit from the good times!! They went from dirt poor to the highest standard of living in Europe in under thirty years. How do they think that happened. Re the deal at a guess without the financial sector Icelands GDP will probably be back to around £6 billion when the repayments start so max of (6B x 0.04 x 7) 1.68B will be paid back about 50% of the loan including interest. Looking on the bright side, even if we lose 1.6B, its still one of Gordon's smaller c0ck ups.
  25. QUOTE (Confusion of VIs @ Aug 27 2009, 12:59 AM) * Back in the 80s the civil service unions tried to halt tax collection, even then it didn't work because the vast majority of taxes were collected via automated payments and the small number of staff required to keep these running were easliy bought off. RBS is probably a rehersal for the way they will deal with the civil service pensions, cap increases in pensionable pay at 2% or rate of inflation (whichever is lower) add in a bit of inflation and in 5-10 years the problem goes away - civil service pensions halved and overall public sector pension liabilities reduced by 500-600 billion. Another reason that this will be the way the cost of public sector pensions will be tackled is it will have relatively little effect on staff within a few years of retirement. i.e the senior staff who will be responsible for pushing through the change.
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