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Confusion of VIs

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Everything posted by Confusion of VIs

  1. Like all tyrants Putin works hard to ensure that those around him all have hands dirty enough to ensure they don't join in plots against him.
  2. Dream on a) Putin is not going anywhere voluntarily and anyone capable of eliminating him is unlikely to be a Gorbachev Mark 2 b) the west will want to see a lot of evidence of change, many years of it, before re engaging
  3. The prices are not going to come back down after the war. Russia will still be a pariah most sanctions will remain and the west will reduce its dependency on Russian commodities as fast as possible.
  4. They worked for the more dangerous alpha and delta variants allowing most people to be vaccinated before they were exposed.
  5. What else can the government do? The only question is whether it is a direct loan to householders or more borrowing on the national account. I would prefer no loans at all but if we do go down that route they should be direct loans because that makes people accountable for their own waste.
  6. The sealed letters are seen by no one apart from the Prime Minister that wrote them, when we have a change of prime minister the old letter is incinerated unopened. It will only be opened in the event that the UK has been destroyed by a Nuclear attack so deterrence, the only justification for Trident, has failed and the only purpose of launching the missiles would be a revenge attack against civilian population centres. Apart from the Prime Ministers concerned no one knows whether those orders are to fire or to head for a friendly/neutral port and join their forces/scuttle the boat.
  7. They never had it, it was a willy waving exercise that didn't produce a useful/practical weapon. Once you can a H bomb there is no technical barrier to increasing the yield.
  8. Fracking like new nuclear is being promoted by the fossil fuel lobby to slow the move to renewables. The exploratory work done to date does not support any of the claims of huge commercial reserves. It is possible they are there but it would take many years to confirm this and many more years to develop the fields even assuming local opposition could be overcome. The problem with trying to back both horses is that it risks undermining the move to renewables by giving out mixed messages about the governments commitment to them. The quickest way of reducing in out reliance on Russian gas would proalby be demand reduction and recommissioning or building large scale gas storage.
  9. The comparison with Germany gives some idea of just how much energy we are wasting. A month or so ago Newsnight had a professor whose field was home energy efficiency saying that the UK's problem wasn't high energy prices, it was shitty housing.
  10. Why? the drilling to date hasn't found any commercial gas reserves the local geology is more fragmented than any commercial fracking area making recovering enough gas to justify the cost of opening up wells unlikely we haven't the skills/infrastructure to support a large scale fracking industry our planning process would make gaining approval almost impossible the cost of insuring operations would be prohibitive I suggest we leave signing the petition to the usual uninformed numpties who listen to the fossil fuel lobbyists. Rather than wasting money turning Blackpool and its surrounds into an earthquake zone by pumping hundreds of thousands of tons of noxious chemicals into the ground, we could greatly expand the Walney wind farm. Even before the recent gas price rises this was so profitable that it can afford to give the local communities £600,000 for each turbine planted 12 miles offshore.
  11. If you are still on an energy fix and manually sending in meter readings, you could save a thousand or two by inflating your meter readings before your fix ends or the cap price is raised.
  12. At next years electricity prices you will get +20% return on putting solar panels on your roof
  13. I have never meet anyone who drives a Tesla that complains about range, the Supercharger network means no range worries. In the first year I had mine I drove over 20,000miles I am now over 50,000 miles and have never had to use a public charger, just as well as I don't even have a charge cable.
  14. In real terms probably much higher back during the fuel price protests.
  15. There is no tariff cap. On the assumption that prices would soon come down, in addition to the compulsory £200 loan from the government, customers are being given a loan from the energy companies to cover the gap between the price cap and market price. One that will be recovered with interest from future bills. It was always a risky policy based more on hope than logic but one that now is clearly unsustainable as sky high gas prices will be the norm going forward. If they don't change the policy it will inevitably end up in a huge bailout. Much better to spend the money this is going to cost on subsidising energy efficiency improvements than energy bills.
  16. The initial and important bit of maintaining existing equipment properly and building up stockpiles of spare parts, ammunition, missiles etc. can be done more quickly and is what much of the initial E 100bn is for.
  17. But I thought Leavers had voted to replace the Europeans with Non Europeans. Maybe you/they didn't know what they were voting for.
  18. Post-Brexit shortfall of EU workers cancelled out by staff from rest of world Ah so that's what they voted for 😁
  19. The expected life of batteries has continued to increase, +500,000miles will soon be the norm, plus another 20yrs of second life when used for less demanding storage applications Profitable low energy recycling processes have been developed by the likes of Tesla, Redwood Materials and Li-Cycle that can recover and reuse 95% of the battery materials. Last year Redwood recycled over 1GW of batteries Tesla is building recycling plants at its Texas and Nevada Gigafactories that will be capable of handling all of its recycling requirements. Recycled batteries are now a low cost source of battery materials. In short the recycling problem is now an opportunity to reduce mining and to make profit. I still don't understand why you constantly search out potential or imagined problems with new technologies while thinking it is ok for ICE's to just dump their pollution into the environment.
  20. We are holding 6% of Russia's foreign reserves, that should cover the cost of looking after Putin's refugees quite nicely.
  21. If he did that he would find himself in a pointless face off with NATO forces that, after the lacklustre performance in the Ukraine, would be feeling pretty confident of their ability to win any conflict. It may be that he is already in an arms race Russia cannot afford. Germany's decision to immediately spend Euro 100bn on getting its defence forces up to scratch and in addition to increase its defence spending to +2% of their GDP must have come as an unwelcome surprise.
  22. Yes. Spending, revenue raising and debt management plans are based upon long term forecasts. A forecast shortfall against expected income impacts (or at least should impact) on today's spending and tax raising. Its common the parlance and not as misleading as the governments claims that continued growth shows that Brexit has not damaged our economy. Depends on what type of forecast you are talking about, relative situation A vs situation B forecasts are much more reliable than absolute predictions of the future. Brexit can be viewed as a trade war, albeit one we declared on ourselves, and the impact of all the resulting barriers to trade estimated. Also progress can be tracked against a doppelganger economy that in normal times would be expected to closely mirror the UK. This sort of work is probably guiding the range of sanctions being applied to Russia. The aim presumably being to precipitate an economic collapse while still benefiting from Russia's energy/food exports.
  23. The OBR figure excludes the GDP loss before we formally exited, as both they and the Treasury were banned from releasing figures on this back in 2018. Most Independent forecasters figures put this at between 2.5 and 3%. Add this to the current OBR forecast and you get the "project fear" projection of 6-7% loss of GDP by 2030.
  24. If you looked at the graphs you would have seen none come close to Moore's law There are a string of technological developments in the pipeline that are going to greatly increase the efficiency of solar panels in the coming years and the move to lower cost perovskite cells, those plus further economies of scale will keep the cost reductions coming. For wind progress is less marked, mainly because efficiency is much closer to the theoretical maximum so it is mainly reliant on incremental manufacturing improvements and economies of scale to reduce costs. The battery graph out to at least 2025 is pretty much in the bag, it actually behind Tesla's current roadmap for price reduction and someone may come along and beat that. His calculations are gibberish because they don't even take account of current technology, never mind what is likely to be possible given the current rapid rate of progress. His calculation of storage requirements are gibberish because he picked a nonsensical starting point. Overall they are about as convincing as predicting the price of todays Apple watch based on trying to build it with 2010 technology. Do you ever look back at all the things you get wrong and wonder why. It wasn't that long ago you were going on about lithium batteries being impossible to recycle, now that problem has been solved.
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