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Confusion of VIs

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Everything posted by Confusion of VIs

  1. I left Blackpool over a generation ago. Prices were never anything like London, even back then London was well over double the price of Blackpool. Blackpool has been declining since at least the late sixties, after people started to want foreign holidays and with increasing numbers of children going to university and not coming back to settle in the town.
  2. A period where the production lines were being upgraded which reduced output and also included a week of complete shutdown. Over the past five years the randomers have proved an awful lot more reliable than the "experts", almost all of whom still seem to be unable to grasp that the game has changed. You haven't by any chance shorted Tesla, have you?
  3. What Green regs? Our insulation standards were weakened by lobbying from the developers and, as a result, are still still below what has been the norm in Europe for over 20yrs.
  4. That's part of the story but interest baring debt is still $88bn. In addition 73% of VWs assets are listed as fixed assets, most of which will have to be written off over the next 10yrs. Tesla can throw as much cash as is required at R&D. They are sitting on a huge cash pile are becoming increasingly profitable quarter by quarter and, unlike the legacy manufacturers, will not have to go through an eye wateringly expensive downsizing over the coming years. The R&D underpinning Tesla's next generation cars is done and going into production next year. In contrast, VW's MEB platform is simply not good enough and their bet on solid state is not going to pay off in the short/medium term. If I had shares in VW, I would sell them before Berlin opens. I bought into GM a couple of years ago but sold them for Tesla, after deciding Biden's mad speech was their jump the shark moment and it will be all down hill from here.
  5. Yes, far more productive. Tesla doesn't break down its employee numbers but let's looks at Shanghai. The total number of Tesla employees in China is around 15,000. Not all of these will be in Shanghai or involved in production but lets assume they are. As of today the Shanghai plant has ramped up production to 3,600 cars per day ( 2,000 model 3 and 1,600 model Y). On an annual basis this is 1.3m cars (and Tesla has just announced it will be taking on another 4,000 workers by March to further boost this number). So if we look at a cars per worker basis Shanghai is twice as productive as Ulsan, factor in the difference in selling price of the average Tesla v Hyundai and you are probably at around 4 times. Now factor in that despite continuous improvement Shanghai is old tech compared to Berlin and Texas and who knows how much more productive they will be. What is clear is that Tesla has been sandbagging Shanghai was meant to produce 250,000 cars a year and then be expanded to produce 450,000 a year. The Q4 figures are going to be a blowout, on production and profit, best not to be shorting Tesla when they are released.
  6. Are you suggesting it would be more sensible to send them up North to live with you?
  7. Sound like sell your crypto and invest in BTL, you know it makes sense.
  8. Sarcasm, but no doubt one of the "virologists" on here will be along shortly to claim it is.
  9. Where did you get this from? The figures I have seen don't even come close to supporting this claim.
  10. So old vaccinated with sniffles and young unvaccinated patients in intensive care? More conclusive proof the vaccines don't work.
  11. No I compared it with the number Diess hopes to avoid falling below a nonsensical comment if he was talking about operating margin. Have a look at VW's debt. The last three cars I bought were all at list price, no negotiation possible because they were cars people wanted. The ID3 cost VW a fortune to develop and they are still trying to get it right. I doubt they were making money at list and am very confident they weren't at 20% off list. So has Tesla. Most of the others haven't even caught up with Tesla's 2012 tech, never mind the 2022 tech that will be in the Berlin and Texas models. The disruption is only just starting.
  12. I work with data and my thoughts are that unless you understand and can validate a dataset you shouldn't attempt to draw conclusions from it. I gave one possibility I expect people with more understanding could give you many more. You could try asking the ONS, they do respond to queries.
  13. Without access to all the data and a lot of data cleansing/statistical work who knows. At a guess the fact that all those with comorbidities being vaccinated will be significantly skewing the data.
  14. Not all the cars they could make and not at a list price set to manage rather than create demand. You do know that Tesla is about to commission what will soon be by far the worlds two most productive car plants. BYD figures are inflated by adding in hybrids and producing cars with very limited range, one of their top sellers has a range of just 43m. Tesla's figures for China simply reflect the quota allocated to China. Volkwagen's ID4 is turning out to be bit of a dud, coming in the bottom of group tests and still with the slow buggy software that is driving my wife nuts in her ID3 (on line updates still not working, so far 3 trips to the dealer for updates that should have been done online). The next few days while Musk is still selling a couple of $1bn each day might be an opportunity to close your position, Q4 is going to be another blowout and if the opening of Texas and Berlin goes smoothly the price will soon be heading past $2,000
  15. Not at all, ONS data released on 18th Nov said that the chance of catching Covid 14 days after receiving the booster was 5 times less than the unvaccinated. The main reduction in your chance of infecting someone else comes not from your inability to pass it on if infected but from you not catching it in the first place.
  16. It's also untrue, current estimate is that fully vaccinated are about 20% as likely to pass on the virus as the unvaccinated.
  17. What makes you think such a variant exists? So far natural immunity seems to be just as, or even more, fleeting than from the vaccines.
  18. Not always, the first time we did it, to include ETH, we got lucky ETH soared ahead of BC. So a big extra gain in addition to using the tax allowance, happy days but would have been pretty upset if it had gone the other way.
  19. Ideally use all of the families allowance. I mirror moves from BC to ETH with the reverse for my wife and the same for my daughters. Cost is around 0.6% of the trade to remove a almost £50k 20% of tax liability each year. Also if BC/ETH do eventually go to 0 at least will will have a large tax loss to use against other investments.
  20. Eventually maybe. He also said during the transition the margin will drop but he hopes to keep it above 6%. In other interviews he has said the cost of moving to EV's will stretch VW's finances. An independent person would probably say they are already overstretched. I think we can be pretty sure that after a 20% discount there was no profit left, especially given the amount of troubles and delays in getting the id3 produced. In fact they still haven't managed to get the online updates working. Who knows but what I do know is that so far the margins on each new model have been higher than before and the production costs are still coming down with a huge drop expected for the new Berlin and Texas plants. You seem to be stuck in the same rut as Peter unable to comprehend that the world has changed and that all those ICE production assets will soon become liabilities. Tesla's real competition will be from the Chinese manufacturers arriving in Europe and the US in the next 2 or 3 years.
  21. Teslas Q3 Financial Report 30.5% GAAP Automotive gross margin (28.8% ex-credits) in Q3 He did, perhaps he forgot to tell you. His target is to maintain it above 6% during the transition to EV's, as their current margin is 15.6% that implies their EV sales are currently losing money. I am pretty sure they lost money on my wife's id3 after the over £7k discount. Diess seems to be the only Legacy CEO that understands the difficulty of transitioning to EV manufacturing. He gets that EVs are computers on wheels and that matching Tesla's productivity will require all new assembly lines/factories. The so far unsaid implication of this is that VW will need to lose at least two thirds of its workforce even if it manages to maintain its current market share. Quite how he can do this in Germany is hard to see.
  22. The achievable margin will depend on the Chinese competition, if Tesla's margins are being squeezed there isn't much hope for the Western manufacturers. Tesla sells every car it can make, didn't I explain before that the Chinese output is being shared across the world and the sales figures in each market just reflect the quotas allocated to each market. As above, Europe is buying every Tesla they can get and at premium prices. I wonder what will happen when Berlin and Texas start production. To try and get back the money you lost on your October short?
  23. No just saying you are assuming a stable baseline that doesn't exist. Who knows what other changes have been made to response guidance over the past two years and their effect on the callout stats. The service is capacity constrained and the rules are being constantly tinkered with to try and get a quart into a pint pot.
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