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Confusion of VIs

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Everything posted by Confusion of VIs

  1. £30 pint of beer on sale in our local craft beer bar (in Croydon not Mayfair) last week. To be fair it was very very good beer (I had a third).
  2. Isn't moving from one to two legal measurement systems just adding red tape for the sake of it. Still as Brexit must already be our largest ever generator of red tape, i dare say this makes little difference.
  3. There is more than enough existing pipeline capacity, Nordstream2 won't supply a single extra BTU of gas to Europe. It is there to enable Russia to bypass the Ukraine.
  4. You said you couldn't find it and I explained why. The reality is spacing turbines at a set distance is far from optimum as that takes no consideration of how the turbines interact or other factors that affect the local wind speed experienced by each turbine. What made you decide that this climate change denying salesman for the fossil fuel industry should be believed. Have a look at his background and maybe you will get an idea of where he is coming from. His claims about the cost of wind power are based on a selective analysis of the operating costs of turbines installed back in 2010 and ignores that these are now completely obsolete. About as convincing as saying Tesla's cannot exist because I have analysed the range/performance of a 2010 electric car and it is rubbish. NB You might has got the impression that he was a big supporter of Nuclear power, he isn't but what better way to protect big oil than derail renewables on the promise that a so far non existent type of Nuclear reactor could save the day. That should give them another 50yrs of profitable pumping If you watched the meeting to the end you would have seen a rather more balanced view from Lord Turner, who thinks that the actual wind power price outcome will be better, rather than worse, than is being assumed. He also thought that the government is greatly overestimating the cost of moving to EVs and greatly underestimating the costs of updating and insulating homes. Both obviously correct.
  5. A lot think that modern diesel electric subs are much more cost effective, quieter and better suited to defending costal waters than nuclear. As far back as 2005 a Swedish one was able to sneak up on a US carrier group and "sink" the carrier, then to show it wasn't a fluke did it again.
  6. The Astute is a pretty old design that dates back to the 80s, I recall reading that it was a flawed design from the outset because spending constraints meant it had to use an old reactor design that was larger and not as quiet as a modern re design would have been. It's probably telling that the gov has rowed back from initial claims of it "creating 1,000s of jobs" to "protecting hundreds".
  7. I read the article and followed the research that led to this development. The new cells record breaking efficiency has now been officially recognised. There is no better Silver based cell. It is also just one of a number of competing technologies aiming to eliminate the use of Silver. Your an element is an element view is meaningless. Next up will be Silver free Perovskite cells, an viable approach has now been developed that stabilises the cells Perovskite layer enabling the Silver layer to be replaced with Copper. Expect to hear that a commercial cell has been developed in the next year or so. In both cases work is already underway is to reduce or ideally replace the Copper element with Aluminium. Not much chance of running out of Aluminium. You need to take all of these predictions of element shortages with a large pinch of salt. Everyone you are aware of is already driving research into eliminating the constraint. E.g what do you think the impact of the use of superconducting generators, substations, transmission cables and motors becoming widespread will have on the predicted Copper requirement.
  8. Isn't the reality that the increase has been caused by Putin playing hardball over gas supplies, compounded by our lack of gas storage. Even the Telegraph is now getting that we need to get off fossil fuel ASAP We are living through a fossil fuel shock, but make no mistake: net zero is the solution - not the problem
  9. A lot of developments are going on that will make very long distance superconducting interconnectors practical in the very near future. This article although 5yrs old gives a good overview Superconducting transmission lines They have such huge advantages over conventional HV lines that it will be cheaper to put new powerlines underground than upgrade the existing over ground network. Very few have even an inkling of what is coming down the road. The switch over is going to happen far faster than expected. Tony Seba below is a MIT futurist who has a +10yr record of calling the speed of the cost reductions in renewable power, storage and EVs correctly. Below he explains why the change over is inevitable and why any money now invested in old world will be lost.
  10. Why do you think commercially sensitive technical information would be available. If the firms are right they can bid low win contracts and make money on them, if wrong they will go bust. Depends on how you measure land surface area, most seem to be placed on industrial scale farmland that is still used for farming. Is that now all wind turbine land or still +90% farmland?
  11. I posted the article, it references the report. I also pointed out several factors that have allowed power output to be increased. We went round the same circles with the upgrading of the UK's offshore turbines. 1) we now know that optimum spacing is far spacing is far more complex than that and what makes you think the earlier turbines were placed as closes as 6-7 times their rotor diameter. 2) even small differences in wind speed make a big difference in power output 3) again you are being far too simplistic, the turbines have increased efficiencies all the way from their individually controlled blades to the substation. We get back to who should I believe, the experts or a random guy on the internet who across a range of issues seems to be set on proving the proverb "There are none so blind as those who will not see".
  12. That was your argument before, but looks to me like it's not correct. A case of believing published reports from both UK and German engineers, or a random internet guy. If you drill down lots has been learnt about how to optimise placement, the efficiency of the turbines has greatly increased and the new taller ones access stronger winds. That's the figure for blade swept area. A measure of how efficient the turbine is (Land surface as opposed to offshore)
  13. The Germans are building over 100GB of windcapacity by 2030, quite impressive given their wind resources are poor compared to ours. For kzb's benefit the attached shows they could achieve this purely by replacing the existing turbines with more efficient versions. repowering wind turbines could double output by 2030 In addition they are also increasing their solar power capacity from 50GW today to 100GW by 2030. Unlike in Scotland all this investment is producing new jobs, around 300k to date.
  14. It was never cheaper, early attempts were subsidised by the military and no allowance was made for their decommissioning or waste disposal costs, and their design would be considered unacceptably risky today. Earlier today gridwatch showed we were importing more power over the interconnectors than Nuclear was producing.
  15. The noise output of domestic wind turbines has to be very low to gain certification, 42db measured 1 m from the neighbours nearest habitable room. Their problem is not noise it is that they are a complete waste of time. Heat pumps will also have to meet 42db standard. This is about the same as a quiet dishwasher.
  16. Don't let anyone try and sell you a wind turbine. A 5kw (20m tower and 5m span) one will set you back upwards of £30,000 with maintenance/insurance costs of around £500 a year. For WTs bigger is most definitely better. The only two people I know who bought one didn't even manage recoup their running costs, never mind any of their capital spend. For a fraction of the price (about £12k you could put in 20kw of ground based solar and use the EVs as your storage battery (By the time you can get one in RHD the Model Y should have the ability to offload power), or put in a Tesla power wall. Alternatively you could go onto something like the Octopus agile tariff and use the Powerwall to suck up electricity when other peoples turbines are producing a surplus
  17. There is not a lot to say the story is invented BS from start to finish. Could be just more deliberately circulated FUD but it is so inept I imagine more likely to be a junior journalist who let his/her imagination run riot. The nugget of truth, that probably lies behind the story, is that smart chargers can be set to only charge at off peak periods. If you choose to only charge at off peak times you will be getting your power cheaper than today (on Octopus the rates can go down to zero when there is surplus power). If you insist on paying several times more for your electricity you can ignore the off peak option. The idea that these peak periods will be at some set time is ridiculous there will be dynamic pricing (like the agile tariff Octopus offers today) prices will change subject to the supply/demand balance. The important bit is that it is your choice and you can also choose off peak subject to reaching a minimum level of charge by a set time. Take away the BS and the story is about making more intelligent use of the supply, a win win for the consumer and supplier. If you ever get an EV you will like most owners soon realise that range anxiety is something that strangely only ICE drivers worry about.
  18. At some point, the oil producers will realise the game is up and just pump out as much as they can while they can. This may actually be good for the environment as the difficult/expensive to extract reserves are generally also the dirtiest and will have to be left in the ground as their market is taken by lighter lower cost crudes coming from the likes of Saudi Arabia. Hopefully Tar Sands and Shale will soon be squeezed out.
  19. The tech being developed for renewables is at the absolute cutting edge of materials science and energy efficiency. Wind turbines are now being built that 10 years ago people thought would be impossible to build before 2050. On the solar side there are a raft of competing developments that will push efficiency beyond 30%. A big development this week was the announcement of a commercial sized cell that gives both record efficiency for a single layer silicon cell and reduces production costs by removing the need to use Silver (Bad news for the Silver bugs confidently predicting huge price rises as PV sucked up all global production) Australian start-up sets 25.54% efficiency record for silicon cell
  20. Last week was a very bad one for Silver bugs, what they said couldn't happen just did. A new cheaper, Silver free solar cell has been produced at a commercial size. The icing on the cake is that as well as being cheaper to produce it has set a new efficiency record for a single layer silicon cell. https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2021/09/10/australian-start-up-sets-25-54-efficiency-record-for-silicon-cell/
  21. Those huge turbines don't build themselves, there is a jobs revolution just not here in the UK. As to date our government has invested too little, is moving too slowly firms and is constantly changing tack firms will not make the huge investments needed to build up a renewable industry in the UK. Still the Chinese will be happy to sell us whatever we want.
  22. The interconnectors will be used both ways, at times we will have more than enough surplus wind/solar to export at whatever the interconnectors maximum capacity is. Yes mine will be going up to that when the current fix runs out in December. Putin's games playing with the gas supply has tripled the price. Still we use so little now a dropping the standing charge will offset a large chunk of the rise. Batteries are still too expensive for them to make financial sense but they are falling rapidly so maybe in a few years. Although if you have an EV charging during the day that soaks up most of the surplus, making them even harder to justify.
  23. You will find far higher quality fresh food in a run of the mill Portuguese supermarket than you will here. Admittedly they are a long way behind us in the range of ultra processed foods on offer.
  24. Strange that nobody seems to be mentioning that post Brexit we will need more lorries and lorry drivers to ferry goods around because we have deliberately made the supply chain less efficient.
  25. Elon Musk reckons that he won't get approval for driverless cars/trucks until they are 10 times safer than human drivers. Given the amount of criticism Autopilot gets, despite already being twice as safe as human drivers on the same roads, that's probably correct.
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