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About overbearish

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    HPC Newbie
  1. I agree culpability - I have no doubt that he is a brilliant man but he always looks as slightly bewildered (looks to be as he should be running your local green grocer or butcher) by what is is going on - although to be fair the cards Gordon Brown has dealt him are impossible to play!
  2. I apologise for the rant but IMO today was beyond belief... Please can somebody explain what I am missing on the UK economy that Mervyn King can see? Having being so disastrously wrong with his (or his mates) forecasts for last nine months - not rocket science to work out that tax rises, mortgage rises, utility rises and £100bn+ pa net increase in debt (needed just to keep house prices where they are) combined with slowing house prices/pension worries is going to finally hit consumer spending - he is now claiming that all will be ok in 2007 ? A few questions: 1. HOW CAN YOU SAY THE HOUSING M
  3. Hence why when the housing market news deteriorates over next couple of months as housing transactions dry up and panic sellers emerge impacting further on consumer spending, the only possible action they will have is to cut rates in the summer even as early as July. Yes, it will impact on inflation from Sterling falls and consequently undermine credibility but what other alternative - with Europe slowing (exports falling) and no stimulator at all in the UK economy now the consumer has come off the boil and fiscal policy already at max speed, they run risk of starting a spiral of rising unempl
  4. so could I! Can't see how rise in housing stock levels for sale just before we enter summer lull isnt making them nervous/panic given 1) what happened to consumer spending after last September when housing market came off, 2) Europe export markets slowing and 3) job outlook does not look as rosy.... very weird speeches re: shocks etc both from bell and him, minutes tomorrow will be key.....
  5. forgive ignorance, given he doesn't see us any kind of scenario resembling Stagflation, surely you mean rates "need to go down" to respond to a crisis of confidence
  6. way to go mbga9pgf.....5 years older but doing the same - building bigger positions by the day against dollar, yen, swiss franc.... however, sadly it is to protect myself as a houseowner as well...
  7. The BoE has to maintain inflation between 1.5 and 2.5%, so cutting rates when inflation is over 2% will be difficult, unless they can show that if they don't, inflation will eventually fall below 2%. You might have noted that there is very explicit caveat with the BOE able to react if any potential shock and disturbance so plenty of room for manoevre. And along with price stability, the other objective ( is to achieve the government's objective for growth and employment - how is that going to be achieved if houses and economy start going down the tube. As long as price stability not in grave
  8. Mutley, agreed but correct me if I am wrong it is inflation in long term ie two years+ time not near term and I think there is a letter from the treasury in late 2003 which allows other factors to be taken into account as well. If unemployment started rising, then BOE could quite happily argue that wage pressure is easing and oil impact taken. Obviously if pound falls an additional inflationary pressure comes to play, however, what other levers are there to stop the country headling downwards given goverment spending already at max speed......
  9. for what its worth, an amateur reading which will no doubt prove overbearish and wrong...apologies if too serious UK stock markets may go lower short-term but only on sentiment. They are well supported on valuation with only caveat a collapse in the US. The latter looks unlikely given current US newsflow which is ok although accept that can change by end of year. UK shares have already had their fall and are not expensive relative to other classes and already price in a downturn. Two things will help UK shares: 1) if there is a house price crash, interest rates will fall (making dividends mo
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