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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by ArthurHon

  1. Retiring boomers with money purchase pension schemes are looking down the barrel at hardship.

    Youngsters laden with debt after leaving university and unable to find a job are looking down the barrel at hardship.

    This seems fair all things considered.

    Some people are doing okay, those who left university ten years ago. They have jobs, above average income, in fact enough loot to have a family in a rented home.

    Some people are doing better, they worked hard at school, went to a good university, got a top notch degree, bought a house ten years ago and are loaded.

    Some people are really cross, those who left university ten years ago. They have jobs, above average income, in fact enough loot to have a family in a house owned with a mortgage next door to someone they feel they are better than.

    All in all seems as per usual the only person getting shafted is the manual worker getting laid off work. Ttown is effectively turned into no-hope vile by some suits in London. Current situation terrible, forecast to get worse when the savings run out.

    I am not a marxist

  2. There are potential worse downsides to renting;

    eg. have 100k in bank ready to spend on house. You lose job, firm failing, too ill too work or accident whatever. Spend 1500pcm on rent plus 1000 pcm on housekeeping etc. after 3 years, and your funds are almost exhausted you start getting help. Net wealth after 3 years potentially 6k.

    eg. Have 200k house (on the day you bought it) 100K mortgage, no significant savings, say only enough to cover 3 months mortgage payments. as you have spent it all on a house. Lose job for whatever reason. After 13 weeks mortgage paid and provided with money to meet basic needs. Net wealth after 3 years = what your house is worth - what your mortgage has been reduced by. Likely to be significantly more than 6k

    Unless you are smart enough to make your wealth invisible you are likely to be better off buying somewhere so you can fall hook line and sinker into the arms of the welfare state.

  3. So, two incomes (one paying higher rate tax), £110k mortgage so presumably perhaps £500pm after the rate drops, and you'll only have £600pm spare cash?

    My goodness kids are expensive!

    Defo are, I've three kids and the burn rate of my household is 2.5k/month, only 500 on mortgage . They are always in the house with the heating on trashing their clothes and shoes and eating. Interestingly I noted recently that if i were out of work, had no savings, and was paying 800 a month to house my brood in rent, in total i would get 2.5k a month for naught work.

  4. Very few people do, but that really is not the point..

    If the news reports are to be believed then TWENTY NINE BILLION pounds of unpaid overtime was worked last year in the UK.

    So, who benefits from it hey?

    Nobody benefits, the worker loses some of their own time to useless activity, the employer gets naught because the worker probably spends an equal amount of unpaid overtime skiving.

  5. OK, do you know of any people that were required to sign a contract of employment that specifically denied them from expecting recompense for any hours 'worked' over 37.5 hours per week?

    By 'worked' I'm reading attend. Then yes, me, my contract says salary xxxxx for xxxxx hours per week will not be paid overtime, lower grades get overtime but not me and I'm only middling in terms of seniority. Time Off In Lieu is what I get, which is difficult to fit in what with having to do the work I'm paid to do plus a bit of skiving leading to the grafter illusion.

  6. Have you taken the time to read the news items that I provided links to in the OP?

    Not the BBC one but the others. I've seen many people that moan about the hours they do actively wasting time during core hours, I think it is unreasonable when they subsequently complain about staying late to finish a task that could easily have been completed in normal business hours.

  7. Also "for balance", I wonder whether the 2 billion hours of unpaid overtime aren't balanced out by another 2 billion hours of time employees spend at work but not working....... Just a thought!

    Surely a non-story.

    Hear hear. Work is a great place to just kind of space out. I don't think I could count the time I have to stay late to finish the work I should have been doing as unpaid overtime.

  8. OP bases figures on a household income of around £60k gross. This is well into the top 20% of all households - see:


    Hence you can only afford this lifestyle if you are working class if you bought housing a long time ago. HPI has grotesquely distorted the picture. As someone said recently, why should someone on £100k a year be happy to buy a two-bed flat in Battersea?

    You're right, HPI has grotoesquely distorted the picture. We are a little below this income and bought our house off a downsizing dinner lady + factory worker. Nothing wrong with that, decent honest occupations, it's a nice house too. But when it comes to income we would definitely have more than them coming in even when I suspect when they had been our age.

  9. The flaw in the analysis is that it ignores costs spread over a lifetime. The lifecycle model suggests people are nett borrowers when the kids are young and their living expenses are high, and nett savers later in life when the kids have left home and inflation, even at relatively low levels, has eroded debt burdens.

    Of course this relies on being able to buy a house and have kids while you are in your twenties, so from age 50 or so you move into savings territory. If you have kids in your mid-late 30s and buy a family home in your mid-30s then you'll be 60ish before the kids are gone and the mortgage paid off. Which leaves very little time to save for retirement. Of course it's no coincidence that the retirement age is being scrapped just when the 1946 cohort hit 65 but that's another story.

    Point remains that what looks like a pretty unremarkable lifestyle is out of reach for all but a very small percentage of the population in 21st century Britain, and it's nearly all down to HPI.

    I don't think this is an unremarkable lifestyle - owning own home, having savings and pension, expensive holidays, plenty of decent food to eat in addition to a reasonable monthly recreational budget. This is a comfortable though obviously not wealthy lifestyle enjoyed by the skilled working class.

  10. Agree that motoring costs are not compulsory however, the UK is an advanced western economy and this is probably the second generation of with a high percentage of car ownership. So life has become 'car centric' fewer bus routes etc and major employment centres only realistically reachable using personal transport. So if you are participating in the economy, and by that I mean working not spending chances are you have a car and you need it to work. Personally we could get by without a car as I don't need one to get to work, but for example, our nearest public park is 2 miles away and if we need anything more exotic than groceries we need to go to an out of town shopping centre.

    A typical family runs a car, heck even people one the dole seem to manage it.

  11. I’m in this demographic and I agree mostly with the family budget proposed but would suggest that this describes the budget of an affluent working class family – Tradesman breadwinner maybe spouse working part time so no child care costs and whilst there are many in this postion I don’t think it is typical.

    I think the OP is about right with food costs - £500 a month for a family of four. Undoubtedly could be done for less but if you a having fresh fruit and veg with every meal and good quality meat or fish maybe fours times a week is about right.

    Holiday cost are over the odds few people are fortunate enough to spend this much on a holiday every year. I would say maybe 1K and that’s in a year you’re feeling wealthy.

    Pension contributions at 12% of income seems a little high. Personally I do 8% and among my contemporaries this is a lot. If you were putting in 12% you would be saving less.

    Clothing is high, I would say £50 a month on two children and maybe £200 a year on each adult.

    Motoring costs – If you rely on the car for commuting yes, in which case the mileage used might be conservative. I spend less but do most servicing/repairs myself.

    Don’t know about home maintenance having mainly been a renter but it seems a lot. I would’ve thought if you were maintaining (doing DIY) rather than improving a relatively new house (last 50 years or so) it would be less.

  12. I will talk to anyone and everyone. I am a very communicative person. I will strike up a conversation with strangers on the street, at bus stops, in supermarket queues, etc, etc.

    I used to be a documentary film-maker and getting people to talk and open up was part of my job - apparently, so I was told, I was very good at it.

    But, bonny lad(y) the question is are you an EA or closely associated? I think that if I had the communicative skills to elicit such revelations on a regular basis the cost of accommodation would not concern me as I would be very wealthy! Communicative skills like that are priceless!

  13. I was talking to a youngish EA today and she mentioned that her dad was telling her how he could not remember such uncertain economic times - so I told her to listen to her dad.

    TMT I read so many of your posts relating to conversations you've had with EAs it unreal, you must be one! Or clean their windows or something that has you in their offices a few times a week but not buying houses. Now I can recognise alot of the EAs in my town when they pick up the phone but we only ever talk about one thing, whether or not I am buying the house they are showing me or I'm inquiring about. These have now ceased though as I'm buying one, which I know is a terrible decision.

  14. hmm, tricky one

    i would have normally said ebay but.....

    i was looking to offload some sovs back in earl july; as i was visiting the N.W. at the time I had phoned chards and they would have bought them from me at £183 each (prob. a bit less now). Anyway, I decided to sell them on ebay where they got approx. £190-200 each, say an average of £195.

    I checked my bank statement the other day and worked out that the ebay fees (+ paypal fees) worked out at approx 12%. Soooooo, I would have been better selling them to chards and saved myself a lot of time and hassle

    And there's the chargeback risk with Paypal too.

    OP what did you do in the end? I need to liquidate too but worried about getting bouncing cheques from a dealer.

  15. Not sure..

    In my case, this stuff about SMI made me do some calculations.. and at current interest rates, were I made redundant, between Tax credits, SMI, my wife's job and various other bits and pieces, we wouldn't be that much worse off. Repossession would certainly not be on the cards.

    As far as I can tell, you have to really work at it to get repo'd.

    Yeah it does seem quite hard, I think you have to MEW then admit to spunking it so they won't pay the interest on your loan. I don't think you get SMI your wife is still in work though.

  16. the big issue here is that the poster will no longer be RENTER SCUM.

    The big issues are is it is walking distance to one of my kids school, and because we will still be living there (rather than having to move because the landlords sells up) my other children will be able to go to the same school when they start rather than constantly moving schools. They can't all be walked to different schools at the same time and the school they go to is almost entirely dictated by where you live at the time of the application.

    Plus if I lose my job they'll pay my mortgage even under the adjusted SMI whereas now they'd let me burn through my savings before giving me owt.

  17. aint you in the money eh,

    not bothered reading this site for the last 6 years.

    10k off debt, well done son, next year your be a millionare.

    Next year I will be poorer no doubt. The mortgage I take out will be smaller by then too. If I continue renting next year I will likely be in the same situation I am in now, may be able to buy a bigger house though the house I can buy now is perfectly suitable and affordable, not buying now is speculative in my particular situation.

  18. I think this paragraph sums up exactly what is happening in areas of Britain where house prices -- in relation to LOCAL peoples affordability -- are going to be devastated.

    But what is local in this day and age? where I live just about anywhere between west London and Cardiff is commutable by car, weekly commuting is not uncommon either, arrive Monday morning and leave Friday afternoon. Until road fuel is much more expensive how much influence do local wages have?

  19. On a different subject from this particular house...

    I was talking to 2 EAs in Swansea in the last week - they said that they personally think the local market is close to collpase.

    The reasons they cited for this were sellers wanting to over-value their asking prices combined with the banks basically stopping lending. They gave me an example of a couple on 24K between them who were turned down by every lender for a 100K (one of those 99,995K jobs apparently) starter home which, although apparently fairly new build and in 'posh' Swansea West, had just been gutted with "a new everything put in it".

    The EAs said that because nothing was moving at the bottom it meant that everything else was not moving above it.

    They said that a house on the market for between 220K and 300K asking price now had to drop its price by 30K to sell. I ventured that they were still over-priced at that 10% discount on the 300K and they did not disagree.

    They had a couple in their office from London who had purchased a holiday 2 up 2 down in S'sea for 220K at the height and, (Alas I did not get there early enough to hear their reason for selling.), were very disappointed when one EA told them in detail why it would do well to get 150K now.

    They wanted, after much debate, to put it on for 155K but the EA then pointed out that they stand a better chance of selling it if they marketed it at £149,995 - said it would sit there at 155K - and to give him a 5K to 15K margin to work with from that 150K asking price. They agreed with a 5K margin after much debate.

    After they left he told me that they were getting quite a few people in now who could not get their heads around the property being worth less now than it was when they bought at the height.

    Suffice to say, this EA firm is one of the exceptions in the area IMPO.

    Went on to say that some of the expectations from sellers were unrealistic. Had a long conversation about many sellers having MEWed - the conversation came from the EAs and not me - and sticking it on top of their asking price. They stated openly that most local people on local salaries were now priced out of the housing market altogether and that people from London /South East were selling up now and getting out of Swansea and not buying into Swansea.

    They openly said that with the coming local public sector job cuts they thought that they themselves would be out of work - but I told them that a housing price crash would actually be good for them as people with jobs would be able to afford to buy and they would probably get more transactions than now.

    Anyhow, when they asked me what I was looking for I told them I was waiting for the crash and they totally understood - a few months ago they would have looked at me as if I was nuts I guess.

    That sounds like you got an honest appraisal of the market from an EA! I have to ask though, why were you in their office if you were not interested in buying or selling a house? I've tried it a couple of times to find out what was going on at the coalface as it were and they were not interested in having a conversation, how did you get yours off the ground?

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