Clueless_Academic

This 2 bedroom house built from recycled plastic bottles is bulletproof and fireproof and can withstand earthquakes. Oh, and it also reportedly holds a comfy year-round temperature of 64 degrees F. The bottles were filled with sand and are held together by mud and cement to form a solid wall that supposedly is stronger than cinder clocks. A man builds a wall with plastic bottles in the village of Sabon Yelwa. A group of activists have come up with a plan to build a house using bottles, providing what they say is an environmentally smart way to tackle the housing shortage problem in Nigeria. - See more at: My link Nineteen-year old mason, Yahaya Musa, checks a wall of made of sand-filled plastic bottles in the village of Sabon Yelwa. Sitting on 58-square metres, the two-bedroom bungalow looks like an ordinary home. “…the nearly-complete home is bullet and fireproof, earthquake resistant, and maintains a comfortable interior temperature of 64 degrees fahrenheit year round!…” ~Inhabitat The United States uses 129.6 Million plastic bottles per day! That’s 47.3 Billion plastic bottles per year. About 80% of those plastic bottles end up in a landfill! 1500 plastic bottles per second 60 seconds per minute X 60 minutes = 3600 seconds per hour 3600 seconds X 24 hours per day = 86400 seconds per day 1500 plastic bottles per second X 86400 seconds per day = 129,600,000 plastic bottles per day 47.3 Billion plastic bottles per year The article states it took about 14,000 bottles to build this home. The United States throws away enough plastic bottles to build 9257 of these 2 bedroom houses per day! That’s 3.37 MILLION homes per year that could be built using recycled plastic bottles! Just as a side note, there are approximately 3.5 Million homeless people in the United States. Makes you think a little about recycling more now doesn’t it? These homes can be built at a fraction of the cost of traditional houses, and they can be built all over the world. *** - See more at: http://www.naturalblaze.com/2013/12/impenetrable-fireproof-house-made-from.html#sthash.mihzqYJX.dpuf

Also, check out this link on correctly installing soundproofing... My link It talks about the 'Limp Mass Barrier' as an effective method of stopping sound transmission....

Perhaps you could use Boat Building technologies.... If you think about it, power boats use pretty thin insulation to reduce noise levels from diesel engines travelling into sleeping quarters... They use a marine engine soundproofer called 'mass loaded viny Barrierl'.... (MLV) To quote, http://www.quietglue.co.uk/mass-loaded-vinyl/ "Mass Loaded Vinyl (MLV) is a dense rubber-like material commonly used in soundproofing applications. Also known as ‘barrier mat’, MLV is a generic material manufactured by many different companies. Over the course of several decades, various forms of the material have been sold by retailers of soundproofing materials. MLV is essentially a heavy vinyl sheet which has been impregnated with other materials, such as barium and silicates (sand), to increase the mass and therefore the soundproofing qualities. MLV is commonly sold in weights of 5KG and 10KG per SQM. Although originally conceived as an acoustic pipe lagging for industrial settings, rather than soundproofing in buildings, the material has gradually replaced lead sheets. Lead was often specified in soundproofing applications until environmental concerns created demand for a replacement." Here are some tips on costly soundproofing mistakes.... see http://www.acoustic-supplies.com/costly-soundproofing-mistakes Costly Soundproofing Mistakes The following section is taken in the main from an original e-zine article by Craig Williams, founder of an organisation called SoundProofing Secrets.com in America. Because we here at JCW Acoustic Supplies believe the USA is at least 10 years ahead of the UK in terms of an awareness about the need and importance of effective soundproofing, we are delighted to re-print the article here. Mistake 1: Trying to Get Even With Your Noisy Neighbours A lot of noise pollution is caused by noisy neighbours. It's normal to assume that any neighbour who makes an annoying noise must be inconsiderate. In reality most neighbours are actually reasonable people and they might be quite unaware that they are creating a noise problem. So as a first step, try having a friendly conversation with them. Use language like: I need your help with something which you are probably not even aware of. Your dog seems like a great pet and friend but sometimes he barks during the early hours of the morning and it wakes me up. I can't get back to sleep which means I'm very tired during the rest of the day. I know it's normal for dogs to bark - the solution might be as simple as keeping him inside or in another part of the yard at night. Do you mind if we discuss this some more, perhaps you could come over for a coffee and I'll show you where my bedroom is and why it affects me so much. It is important to keep the discussion friendly even though you might feel very annoyed with your neighbour. People with barking dogs are usually aware of the problem and secretly hope that no one will complain. This means that they also expect that one day they will have to do something about the issue. Under no circumstances should you consider retaliating by making your own noise, this will never solve the problem and could result in the police becoming involved. Mistake 2: Buying "Any" Soundproofing Material There are many different types of noise pollution. The type of material and the techniques you need to use to solve your problem will require a good understanding of the exact noise source and problem. The simplest noise variables are how high pitched the sound is (e.g. bird chirping) or how deep it is (e.g. stereo sub-woofer or booming traffic). Other important variables are how loud the noise seems, where it is coming from, the sorts of building material that it is passing through (e.g. windows, walls and floors) and whether the noise is continuous or intermittent. These are not difficult things to determine, but you do need to do a little homework and preparation and you certainly need to know these things before you buy any soundproofing materials. You need to be able to describe your noise problem very clearly, know its source and know what type of solution you are seeking. You also need to know what sorts of solutions you can use e.g. do you lease your apartment or flat and therefore must not make any permanent changes to the structure? Mistake 3: Listening to "Old Wives Tales" Beware that some materials and techniques just do not work despite the endless exposure that they seem to attract. What's more frightening is that using the wrong material or technique could actually make your problem worse, for example some materials will actually appear to make a noise louder or change it to something even more irritating. Aside from the obvious myths around egg boxes and plastic window film which are essentially useless as soundproofing materials, other materials and techniques to be suspicious of include: Old carpet Cardboard Special paints Fibreglass batts e.g. the type used for thermal insulation Rubber e.g. old rubber mattresses and floor mats Any type of mattress secured to a floor or wall Dry cellulose fibre pumped into walls or floors Timber sheets (unless they are uncoupled) Corrugated or pyramid shaped foam like the type used in recording studios - this does not stop noise passing through walls, it simply dampens noise which is already in the room. In short you need a credible, unbiased guide to solving your noise problems. The alternative is trying to sift through the science, logic and truth behind each material and technique and then learning how and where to install the material. Even if you had the time to attempt this self education, it is a very frustrating process and there is no way of knowing whether you really have really reached the right conclusion until after you've completed the job. You could end up spending more time and lots of money on methods and materials which do not properly solve your problem. A simpler solution is to ask JCW Acoustic Supplies for some free advice. Mistake 4: Coping when you are Exhausted & Annoyed Noise pollution can drive you to despair and can literally impact on the health and happiness of you and your family. As a matter of urgency you should consider finding an immediate "compromise solution" to your problem. The most rational, cheapest and fastest compromise is a set of high tech ear plugs. People often think this is a joke – it’s not. These days it is possible to buy very comfortable and very effective high tech ear plugs which are designed to reduce significant noise. You can buy one or more pairs and start catching up on your sleep and thinking time. Once you have reclaimed your sanity you will be in a far better state of mind to embark on manageable longer term solutions to your noise pollution problems. Mistake 5: Replacing "Float" Glass with "Laminated" Glass Laminated glass does give some additional benefit but not as much as you might think. In addition laminated glass is expensive. You would actually achieve a much better effect if you left the existing sheet of glass in your window and secured a second slightly thicker piece of normal (float) glass to your window frame with an air cavity of an inch or two between the two panes. A four inch (100mm) separation between the sheets of glass and some moisture absorbing powder in the cavity gives excellent results and can be done on a budget. This technique is definitely easier than replacing existing window glass with a new laminated pane. Mistake 6: Complaining to Local Authorities about the Noise Most things involving complaints to Local Authorities are time consuming, costly, demoralising and often get you no closer to solving your problem. Anyone who has ever locked horns with any type of bureaucracy will tell you that even when you have a valid complaint the bureaucracy will take forever to do anything. In the meantime you still have to put up with the noise problem and you get more and more stressed and feel more and more like you have lost control over your private world. We’ve heard of people who have been asked by local Council to keep a diary of their noise problem for a whole year! Unfortunately most organisations like local government or even the police do not have the noise measuring equipment or proper understanding of noise and environmental laws to properly enforce them anyway. So instead, put all of your energy into things that you have control over and look for quick wins which will build your confidence and restore your quality of life. The ear plug advice in Mistake No. 5 is a simple example of a quick and inexpensive win over annoying noise pollution. Mistake 7: Taking a "Best Guess" on Installation Techniques Even if you have bought effective soundproofing material, most of the effectiveness of the material will actually come from correct installation. There are two installation considerations: 1) Correctly securing the soundproofing material. A common reason why soundproofing material fails is because it is not properly isolated from the surfaces which are transmitting the problem noise. For example many people purchase floating floors in an attempt to reduce noise transmission between levels. This often fails because the floating floor is not adequately isolated from the original floor. Floating floor manufactures usually provide a cheap thin membrane to put down on the existing floor before installing the floating floor. The manufacturers usually assure you that you are doing the right thing. Sadly it seems few floating floor retailers know very much about soundproofing. What's more it seems that few retailers of any of the products commonly used in soundproofing systems really have a good understanding of soundproofing science and the hidden traps. For complete reassurance, talk to us here at JCW Acoustic Supplies 2) Correctly placing the soundproofing material. Even if the soundproofing material is correctly installed and secured, unless it is installed in the right place it might not solve the noise problem. For example a product called mass loaded vinyl (MLV) is a very effective soundproofing material. If MLV were used to reduce sound transmission between two levels of a dwelling, it would work very well if secured to the ceiling of the lower dwelling i.e. under the noisy floor but it would have poorer performance if installed on top of the noisy floor. A great help to domestic soundproofing is reliable do-it-yourself information which is clearly laid out with simply diagrams and unbiased materials reviews. To guide the correct installation of our products, detailed Installation Guides are available to download fro our website. Mistake 8: Not Following the Right Soundproofing Technique Again this mistake relates to having reliable unbiased do-it-yourself information which is clearly laid out and which you can carefully follow. Remember a properly placed piece of soundproofing can fail if you lose your way during the installation process. There is a lot of data to suggest that a small break in any soundproofing "system" can results in profound reduction in its performance. This is not something you have to worry about if you are patient person and you are prepared to be careful and follow a good set of instructions. Again, more reason enough to ensure that your mind is in the right place, that you are calm and are not rushing desperately and erratically to get rid of the noise pollution. See Mistake 5. Again, for total reassurance and best advice, talk to JCW Acoustic Supplies Mistake 9: Thinking Gaps are bad so Cavities must be Too. Many people believe that the secret to solving noise problems is filling or packing spaces. It's true that the first step in any soundproofing plan is making things airtight but this is very different to filling spaces in walls, floors or windows. The truth is air in an airtight cavity can be an excellent soundproofing "material" in certain circumstances. To make the most of air cavities their size and number need to be carefully considered. So as with all the points raised above, be careful not to rush into pumping, pouring or packing any cavities until you are very clear what it is you are trying to achieve - but definitely aim to make all walls, doors, windows and floors airtight. Hope of some help....

Has anyone seen this new book by Richard Heinberg which suggests that we may not recover from present 'slump' ?? The End of Growth by Richard Heinberg "While experts assure us that the economy is slowly emerging from recession, a growing camp of well-informed dissenters thinks not. The scant evidence of recovery, insists this group, is not an anomaly but the sign of a profound sea change. The End of Growth, one book unequivocally calls it, next to a cover image of a burst balloon and a pin. The book’s author, Richard Heinberg, makes his case by far the most eloquently and comprehensively—and though it may be a decidedly unwelcome one for those now struggling, that doesn't detract from its validity." A very interesting Video Presentation by Heinberg which introduces the topics of his book & shows (Hpc Members) the 'Bigger Picture' as to why economic growth is due to tail off : Some very interesting ideas presented.......................

As both Greece & Italy are within the Eurozone, and hence unable to devalue National Currencies in order to make their exports cheaper Internationally, then they will need to introduce "Internal Devaluations" to make their economies more "Competitive" on the Global stage. see youtube link : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=088TtLfWpfA Such "Internal Devaluations" should lead to lower labour costs, lower input costs, etc. Unfortunately, standards of living will fall for majority of population due to lower disposable incomes, rising taxes, falling Government expenditure on schools, hospitals, pensions, etc. As to the European Central Bank (ECB) becoming "Lender of Last Resort", I don't think the Germans will go for this as they have the Northern European "Mindset" of Fiscal Discipline and want countries such as Greece to introduce long lasting Structural Reforms as opposed to the "quick fix" of unlimited cash injections. However the downside is that such structural reforms will increase social tensions......... and result in years of falling GDP.......... years of falling per capita income.

I'm sure Posters can do their Own Research on the Chinese Biscuit Industry - But here are a few Pointers: Perhaps likes of 'United Biscuits' (makers of Jaffa Cakes, Digestives, and the like...) have good reason to sell out to Chinese because of their advanced manufacturing techniques....??

Looks as if some in German Military believe in PEAK OIL happening now !!! see this link : My link German Military Braces for Scarcity After ‘Peak Oil’ By JOHN COLLINS RUDOLF A study by a German military think tank leaked to the Internet warns of the potential for a dire global economic crisis in as little as 15 years as a result of a peak and an irreversible decline in world oil supplies. Associated PressThe study was produced by the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, a branch of the German military. It was leaked in August, and its authenticity was confirmed last week by the German newspaper Der Spiegel. The study states that there is “some probability that peak oil will occur around the year 2010 and that the impact on security is expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later.” The concept of “peak oil” is a controversial one, as it signifies the point at which global oil production reaches its maximum level and then enters a permanent decline. As oil is a finite resource, most energy experts consider the eventual peak and decline of world oil production to be an inevitable reality. But the timing of this zenith — whether in the near term, or some distant future — is a subject of fierce debate. Many prominent national and intergovernmental energy agencies, including the International Energy Agency, maintain that oil reserves are sufficient to meet demand until at least 2030. The German military study, which was analyzed and partly translated into English by Der Spiegel, declares that once peak oil begins in earnest, economies around the globe — including Germany’s — will probably struggle with price shocks as a result of higher transportation costs, and “shortages of vital goods could arise.” “In the medium term the global economic system and every market-oriented national economy would collapse,” the study continues. The lead author of the study, Lt. Col. Thomas Will, declined to comment to Der Speigel, as did the German Defense Ministry. According to Der Speigel, the report was in draft form and not intended for release to the public and had yet to be vetted by the German military leadership and other government agencies. The German military is not alone in its concern over the implications of peak oil. According to an Aug. 22 report by Britain’s Guardian newspaper, British government ministries have been privately canvassing opinions from the energy industry and scientists on peak oil, while publicly dismissing fears of an imminent oil shortage as alarmist. Fueling suspicion, the British government has rebuffed news media requests to turn over policy documents related to peak oil.

According to SANTANDER PLC website: "Important information about compensation arrangements We are covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS). The FSCS can pay compensation to depositors if a bank is unable to meet its financial obligations. Most depositors - including most individuals and small businesses - are covered by the scheme. In respect of deposits, an eligible depositor is entitled to claim up to £50,000. For joint accounts each account holder is treated as having a claim in respect of their share so, for a joint account held by two eligible depositors, the maximum amount that could be claimed would be £50,000 each (making a total of £100,000). The £50,000 limit relates to the combined amount in all the eligible depositor’s accounts with the bank. For further information about the scheme (including the amounts covered and eligibility to claim) please ask at your local branch, refer to the FSCS website www.FSCS.org.uk or call the FSCS helpline on 020 7892 7300 or 0800 678 1100 Santander UK plc and cahoot Santander UK plc is an authorised deposit taker and accepts deposits under the Santander and cahoot trading names. In the unlikely event of a claim, the maximum compensation levels above would apply to the combined total of all deposits held with Santander UK plc (including cahoot)" see link My link

Here is an interesting piece in the Telegraph. Quote: "They want Herman Van Rompuy to be able to address the General Assembly as a head of state, and to create a seat for Baroness Ashton, the EU’s foreign minister." Also; "The European Constitution Lisbon Treaty, which came into effect on 1 December 2009, gave the EU “legal personality”: that is, the right to sign treaties; it also created a diplomatic corps to negotiate those treaties and regulate the EU’s relations with third countries." Where does that leave us in the UK ?? Any suggestions as to future scenario's, especially Euro membership for UK + of course house prices !!! + + http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100053681/the-eu-wants-to-be-treated-as-a-state-by-the-united-nations/ The EU demands recognition as a state by the United Nations What constitutes a state? The definition comes in Article One of the 1933 Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States: The state as a person of international law should possess the following qualifications: (a) a permanent population; ( a defined territory; © government; and (d) capacity to enter into relations with the other states. The EU has qualified for decades on (a), ( and ©. Now it has ticked the final box. The European Constitution Lisbon Treaty, which came into effect on 1 December 2009, gave the EU “legal personality”: that is, the right to sign treaties; it also created a diplomatic corps to negotiate those treaties and regulate the EU’s relations with third countries: the European External Action Service. Now, Eurocrats want formal recognition from the United Nations. They want Herman Van Rompuy to be able to address the General Assembly as a head of state, and to create a seat for Baroness Ashton, the EU’s foreign minister (hat-tip, EU Observer). Not everyone is happy with the plan. Many developing countries complain that it would be wrong to accord the EU privileges that are not enjoyed by other regional associations. Indeed, opponents of the scheme commanded a majority when the issue came to a vote. But the EU is continuing to press its claim and – given that it is the original patron and sponsor of most of the other regional blocs – it will surely be only a matter of time before it gets its way. I shouldn’t be surprised if, as part of the negotiations, Eurocrats offer to exchange the British and French seats on the Security Council for a consolidated EU seat, as long demanded by the two main blocs in the European Parliament, the socialists and the EPP. And British politicians still talk about Europe “coming our way”.

Here's a nice explanation & pictorial storyboard illustration of "How Hyperinflation Will Happen In America". It is only one possible outcome....... but a possibility nonetheless! see : My link and : My link How Hyperinflation Will Happen In America A slight but sudden rise in the price of a necessary commodity... Right now, we are in the middle of deflation. The Global Depression we are experiencing has squeezed both aggregate demand levels and aggregate asset prices as never before. Since the credit crunch of September 2008, the U.S. and world economies have been slowly circling the deflationary drain. To counter this, the U.S. government has been running massive deficits, as it seeks to prop up aggregate demand levels by way of fiscal “stimulus” spending—the classic Keynesian move, the same old prescription since donkey’s ears. But the stimulus, apart from being slow and inefficient, has simply not been enough to offset the fall in consumer spending. For its part, the Federal Reserve has been busy propping up all assets—including Treasuries—by way of “quantitative easing”. The Fed is terrified of the U.S. economy falling into a deflationary death-spiral: Lack of liquidity, leading to lower prices, leading to unemployment, leading to lower consumption, leading to still lower prices, the entire economy grinding down to a halt. So the Fed has bought up assets of all kinds, in order to inject liquidity into the system, and buoy asset price levels so as to prevent this deflationary deep-freeze—and will continue to do so. After all, when your only tool is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. But this Fed policy—call it “money-printing”, call it “liquidity injections”, call it “asset price stabilization”—has been overwhelmed by the credit contraction. Just as the Federal government has been unable to fill in the fall in aggregate demand by way of stimulus, the Fed has expanded its balance sheet from some $900 billion in the Fall of ’08, to about $2.3 trillion today—but that additional $1.4 trillion has been no match for the loss of credit. At best, the Fed has been able to alleviate the worst effects of the deflation—it certainly has not turned the deflationary environment into anything resembling inflation. Yields are low, unemployment up, CPI numbers are down (and under some metrics, negative)—in short, everything screams “deflation”. Therefore, the notion of talking about hyperinflation now, in this current macro-economic environment, would seem . . . well . . . crazy. Right? Wrong: I would argue that the next step down in this world-historical Global Depression which we are experiencing will be hyperinflation. Most people dismiss the very notion of hyperinflation occurring in the United States as something only tin-foil hatters, gold-bugs, and Right-wing survivalists drool about. In fact, most sensible people don’t even bother arguing the issue at all—everyone knows that only fools bother arguing with a bigger fool. A minority, though—and God bless ’em—actually do go ahead and go through the motions of talking to the crazies ranting about hyperinflation. These amiable souls diligently point out that in a deflationary environment—where commodity prices are more or less stable, there are downward pressures on wages, asset prices are falling, and credit markets are shrinking—inflation is impossible. Therefore, hyperinflation is even more impossible. This outlook seems sensible—if we fall for the trap of thinking that hyperinflation is an extension of inflation. If we think that hyperinflation is simply inflation on steroids—inflation-plus—inflation with balls—then it would seem to be the case that, in our current deflationary economic environment, hyperinflation is not simply a long way off, but flat-out ridiculous. But hyperinflation is not an extension or amplification of inflation. Inflation and hyperinflation are two very distinct animals. They look the same—because in both cases, the currency loses its purchasing power—but they are not the same. Inflation is when the economy overheats: It’s when an economy’s consumables (labor and commodities) are so in-demand because of economic growth, coupled with an expansionist credit environment, that the consumables rise in price. This forces all goods and services to rise in price as well, so that producers can keep up with costs. It is essentially a demand-driven phenomena. Hyperinflation is the loss of faith in the currency. Prices rise in a hyperinflationary environment just like in an inflationary environment, but they rise not because people want more money for their labor or for commodities, but because people are trying to get out of the currency. It’s not that they want more money—they want less of the currency: So they will pay anything for a good which is not the currency. Right now, the U.S. government is indebted to about 100% of GDP, with a yearly fiscal deficit of about 10% of GDP, and no end in sight. For its part, the Federal Reserve is purchasing Treasuries, in order to finance the fiscal shortfall, both directly (the recently unveiled QE-lite) and indirectly (through the Too Big To Fail banks). The Fed is satisfying two objectives: One, supporting the government in its efforts to maintain aggregate demand levels, and two, supporting asset prices, and thereby prevent further deflationary erosion. The Fed is calculating that either path—increase in aggregate demand levels or increase in aggregate asset values—leads to the same thing: A recovery in the economy. This recovery is not going to happen—that’s the news we’ve been getting as of late. Amid all this hopeful talk about “avoiding a double-dip”, it turns out that we didn’t avoid a double-dip—we never really managed to claw our way out of the first dip. No matter all the stimulus, no matter all the alphabet-soup liquidity windows over the past 2 years, the inescapable fact is that the economy has been—and is headed—down. But both the Federal government and the Federal Reserve are hell-bent on using the same old tired tools to “fix the economy”—stimulus on the one hand, liquidity injections on the other. (See my discussion of The Deficit here.) It’s those very fixes that are pulling us closer to the edge. Why? Because the economy is in no better shape than it was in September 2008—and both the Federal Reserve and the Federal government have shot their wad. They got nothin’ left, after trillions in stimulus and trillions more in balance sheet expansion— —but they have accomplished one thing: They have undermined Treasuries. These policies have turned Treasuries into the spit-and-baling wire of the U.S. financial system—they are literally the only things holding the whole economy together. In other words, Treasuries are now the New and Improved Toxic Asset. Everyone knows that they are overvalued, everyone knows their yields are absurd—yet everyone tiptoes around that truth as delicately as if it were a bomb. Which is actually what it is. Click here to see How it Happens.....My link

According to the "Mirror", (see My link)the benefits paid to the family are broken down as follows: THE BILL Income support: £439 Housing benefit: £87 Carer's allowance: £53 Disability living allowance: £119 Child benefit: £99 Council tax benefit: £18 TOTAL PER WEEK: £815

Don't shoot the messenger !

Thanks for calculations ! If you accept those final figures where does that leave main trading blocs of EU / USA / Asia Pacific ?? Will the likes of India & China sit back & allow Developed nations to hold them to ransom by restricting essential energy supplies needed for their industrial development ? Methinks that US Foreign Policy has been directed toward securing Strategic Oil Supplies. The US has alliances with Top 3 Countries with oil reserves; Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait which account for 46.1% of total Global reserves !

An interesting article published by the US based "Council of Foreign Relations" (CFR), so it's not lightweight stuff !! Please see below link for diagrams & full text; If China continues to consume oil at present rates it's set to increase oil consumption from present levels of 10% to over 70% of Global Production within the next decade !! For your info., the USA only consumes 22% of Global Production today !!!! Thus unless either China curtails its Growth or alternatives to hydrocarbons evolve within the next decade it's likely the we will face resource scarcity by 2020 in all areas, as oil is used to drive the Global Economy, International Trade, Food Production, etc., etc. !!! Methinks its time to become more eco-friendly in all sectors & gradually switch to non-hydrocarbon based energy sources before 2015 !! A great focus in the 21st century must be local production to save on distribution costs - thus perhaps Chinese / Indian (developing Countries) imports will, over time, become prohibitively expensive for us due to increased shipping costs ?? Indeed the Developed Economies of USA / Europe / Japan could introduce 'ECO' Taxes on imports from countries such as China & India based on levels of CO2 per 'unit' these countries emit in comparrison to 'Developed' & 'Greener' economies like Germany. The rational for such taxes would be that developing economies enjoy unfair advantages in manufacturing by employing 'outdated' production methods & 'labour intensive' methods which produce more CO2 per unit than say an equivalent German supplier. Thus, Developing Economies have an unfair advantage at the expense of the Global Environment (and USA/EU/Japan Economies !!). Indeed there is a double wammy as many developing economies (such as China) artificially devalue their currencies to make their exports cheaper for us !! Hence, an ECO Tax (ON PRODUCTION) would benefit the Developed World Economies and ensure smooth progress to alternative energy sources - Such a 'TAX' could be levied on goods imported from developing Economies such as India & China and paid directly on importation into EU / US / Japan by Buyers. Thus, over time, Buyers would source more 'Green' suppliers as there would be no advantage to them in shipping goods half way across the Globe if import price equals local / EU source production. Within a very short space of Time The EU would eliminate Soverign Debt as it would regain its Position as NO.1. Manufacturing Centre of the World, low unemployment, etc., etc.,. I dare say US would follow in similar economic fashion due to fact they also have large internal market & extensive Technological / Education Base which developing economies now lack. Sorry, if looks 'Cut Throat' but if resoiurces are not there what can Politicians do......................!!!!!! We need a 'LIFEBOAT' Strategy to preserve the UK / EU / US / as well as Developing Economies...................... as resources are FINITE....... FINITE based on todays Technologies.............. But perhaps innovation can save day ?? see link below: My link China Will Force the World Off Oil As a country’s per capita income increases, its per capita oil consumption increases. Consumption growth tends to be modest up until $15,000 income per head, but then accelerates rapidly. China is quickly approaching this point. South Korea, which consumes 3% of world oil output, is too small to disrupt oil markets. China is too big not to disrupt them. Were China’s per capita oil consumption to be brought up to South Korea’s, its share of global consumption would increase from today’s 10% to over 70%. In order to cap China’s share at 22%, which is the U.S. share today, global oil output would have to increase by a massive 13% per annum over ten years – well beyond the 1% growth averaged since 1975. This rate of growth is inconceivable, even if vastly more expensive sources of supply, such as the Canadian oil sands, were developed at breakneck speed. If China’s recent economic growth pace continues, it will surpass South Korea’s current per capita GDP shortly after 2020 – meaning that the world may be forced onto alternative energy sources much sooner than it realizes.

Yes I totally agree ! Science Historian, James Burke, wrote a book in the 70's titled 'CONNECTIONS' (also made into a tv series by BBC) which plotted the interconnections between scientific discoveries over time and how they built upon one another. Thus far, mankind has proved capable of adapting to new environmental challenges through innovatiion - thus ensuring his survival. We will face a new geopolitical reality in the 21st century......... and I hope we can use new technological advancements, such as nano-technology, for the benefit of society once we emerge from a post oil culture. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcSxL8GUn-g

As quoted from Wikipedia: My link The Olduvai theory was introduced in 1989 by power system engineer Richard C. Duncan as the "transient-pulse theory of Industrial Civilization".[1] The theory was backed up with data in the 1993 paper "The life-expectancy of industrial civilization: The decline to global equilibrium".[2] In June, 1996, Duncan introduced a paper titled "The Olduvai Theory: Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age" where the term "Olduvai Theory" replaced "transient-pulse theory" used in previous papers.[3] Duncan further updated his theory in "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge", at the Summit 2000 Pardee Keynote Symposia of the Geological Society of America, on November 13, 2000.[4] In 2005, Duncan extended his data set to include up to 2003 in "The Olduvai Theory Energy, Population, and Industrial Civilization".[5] [edit] Details of theory Industrial Civilization is defined in Duncan's paper as the time approximately from when energy production per capita rises from 37% of the peak value to when it falls to below 37% of its peak value (1930-2030)[3] i.e. the peak in energy production per capita is in between these two endpoints and these two endpoints have values of 37% of the peak value. The Olduvai theory claims that exponential growth of energy production ended in 1979, that energy use per capita will show no growth through 2008, and that after 2008 energy growth will become sharply negative, culminating, after a Malthusian catastrophe, in a world population of 2 billion circa 2050. [5] The Olduvai Theory divides human history into three phases. The first "pre-industrial" phase stretches over most of human history when simple tools and weak machines limited economic growth. The second "industrial" phase encompasses modern industrial civilization where machines temporarily lift all limits to growth. The final "de-industrial" phase follows where industrial economies decline to a period of equilibrium with renewable resources and the natural environment.[4] The decline of the industrial phase is broken into three sections: The Olduvai slope (1979–1999) - energy per capita 'declined at 0.33%/year' The Olduvai slide (2000–2011) - 'begins ... with the escalating warfare in the Middle East... marks the all-time peak of world oil production'. The Olduvai cliff (2012–2030) - 'begins ... in 2012 when an epidemic of permanent blackouts spreads worldwide, i.e. first there are waves of brownouts and temporary blackouts, then finally the electric power networks themselves expire'. It is unclear how this is connected to oil production, as very little electricity generation is fueled by oil Timeline Perry Arnett postulates (2007) the following timeline:[6] 1979: US per capita energy use peaked; still floundering on a plateau in 2006, but ready to fall precipitously (‘cliff’) at any time 2005: World crude oil probably peaked; still on an undulating plateau in 2007; starts off the ‘cliff’ ~2010-2012 or before 2005: World food production (grains) peaked 2008 (or sooner): World Natural Gas peaks 2010 (or sooner): Natural Gas ‘cliff’ arrives 2012 (or sooner): US electricity blackouts and brownouts become the norm 2012: US potable, available water peak and ‘cliff’; shortages and waterborne diseases increase 2015: US Health Care System in complete chaos, breakdown and failure; sanitation, drugs, return of communicable diseases, poorer nutrition etc. 2015: World “Dieoff” begins in earnest; largely starvation, disease and poor healthcare caused 2030: US per-capita energy consumption hits the “30% mark-AFTER peak”, equaling year 1930 lifestyles again (probably much sooner than 2030) According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, global food production will exceed population growth between today and 2030.

Interesting reading which suggests that "Peak Oil" has arrived in 2010 ! The article also outlines Potential Geopolitical consequences ! Reading between the lines we can deduce that, if Peak Oil actually occurs, our consumption based society will fragment and breakdown into disarray - unless of course alternative power sources can be brought on stream quickly !! My link Military Study Warns of a Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis By Stefan Schultz A study by a German military think tank has analyzed how "peak oil" might change the global economy. The internal draft document -- leaked on the Internet -- shows for the first time how carefully the German government has considered a potential energy crisis. The term "peak oil" is used by energy experts to refer to a point in time when global oil reserves pass their zenith and production gradually begins to decline. This would result in a permanent supply crisis -- and fear of it can trigger turbulence in commodity markets and on stock exchanges. The issue is so politically explosive that it's remarkable when an institution like the Bundeswehr, the German military, uses the term "peak oil" at all. But a military study currently circulating on the German blogosphere goes even further. The study is a product of the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, a think tank tasked with fixing a direction for the German military. The team of authors, led by Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Will, uses sometimes-dramatic language to depict the consequences of an irreversible depletion of raw materials. It warns of shifts in the global balance of power, of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the "total collapse of the markets" and of serious political and economic crises. The study, whose authenticity was confirmed to SPIEGEL ONLINE by sources in government circles, was not meant for publication. The document is said to be in draft stage and to consist solely of scientific opinion, which has not yet been edited by the Defense Ministry and other government bodies. The lead author, Will, has declined to comment on the study. It remains doubtful that either the Bundeswehr or the German government would have consented to publish the document in its current form. But the study does show how intensively the German government has engaged with the question of peak oil. Parallels to activities in the UK The leak has parallels with recent reports from the UK. Only last week the Guardian newspaper reported that the British Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) is keeping documents secret which show the UK government is far more concerned about an impending supply crisis than it cares to admit. According to the Guardian, the DECC, the Bank of England and the British Ministry of Defence are working alongside industry representatives to develop a crisis plan to deal with possible shortfalls in energy supply. Inquiries made by Britain's so-called peak oil workshops to energy experts have been seen by SPIEGEL ONLINE. A DECC spokeswoman sought to play down the process, telling the Guardian the enquiries were "routine" and had no political implications. The Bundeswehr study may not have immediate political consequences, either, but it shows that the German government fears shortages could quickly arise. A Litany of Market Failures According to the German report, there is "some probability that peak oil will occur around the year 2010 and that the impact on security is expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later." The Bundeswehr prediction is consistent with those of well-known scientists who assume global oil production has either already passed its peak or will do so this year. Market Failures and International Chain Reactions The political and economic impacts of peak oil on Germany have now been studied for the first time in depth. The crude oil expert Steffen Bukold has evaluated and summarized the findings of the Bundeswehr study. Here is an overview of the central points: ■Oil will determine power: The Bundeswehr Transformation Center writes that oil will become one decisive factor in determining the new landscape of international relations: "The relative importance of the oil-producing nations in the international system is growing. These nations are using the advantages resulting from this to expand the scope of their domestic and foreign policies and establish themselves as a new or resurgent regional, or in some cases even global leading powers." ■Increasing importance of oil exporters: For importers of oil more competition for resources will mean an increase in the number of nations competing for favor with oil-producing nations. For the latter this opens up a window of opportunity which can be used to implement political, economic or ideological aims. As this window of time will only be open for a limited period, "this could result in a more aggressive assertion of national interests on the part of the oil-producing nations." ■Politics in place of the market: The Bundeswehr Transformation Center expects that a supply crisis would roll back the liberalization of the energy market. "The proportion of oil traded on the global, freely accessible oil market will diminish as more oil is traded through bi-national contracts," the study states. In the long run, the study goes on, the global oil market, will only be able to follow the laws of the free market in a restricted way. "Bilateral, conditioned supply agreements and privileged partnerships, such as those seen prior to the oil crises of the 1970s, will once again come to the fore." ■Market failures: The authors paint a bleak picture of the consequences resulting from a shortage of petroleum. As the transportation of goods depends on crude oil, international trade could be subject to colossal tax hikes. "Shortages in the supply of vital goods could arise" as a result, for example in food supplies. Oil is used directly or indirectly in the production of 95 percent of all industrial goods. Price shocks could therefore be seen in almost any industry and throughout all stages of the industrial supply chain. "In the medium term the global economic system and every market-oriented national economy would collapse." ■Relapse into planned economy: Since virtually all economic sectors rely heavily on oil, peak oil could lead to a "partial or complete failure of markets," says the study. "A conceivable alternative would be government rationing and the allocation of important goods or the setting of production schedules and other short-term coercive measures to replace market-based mechanisms in times of crisis." ■Global chain reaction: "A restructuring of oil supplies will not be equally possible in all regions before the onset of peak oil," says the study. "It is likely that a large number of states will not be in a position to make the necessary investments in time," or with "sufficient magnitude." If there were economic crashes in some regions of the world, Germany could be affected. Germany would not escape the crises of other countries, because it's so tightly integrated into the global economy. ■Crisis of political legitimacy: The Bundeswehr study also raises fears for the survival of democracy itself. Parts of the population could perceive the upheaval triggered by peak oil "as a general systemic crisis." This would create "room for ideological and extremist alternatives to existing forms of government." Fragmentation of the affected population is likely and could "in extreme cases lead to open conflict." The scenarios outlined by the Bundeswehr Transformation Center are drastic. Even more explosive politically are recommendations to the government that the energy experts have put forward based on these scenarios. They argue that "states dependent on oil imports" will be forced to "show more pragmatism toward oil-producing states in their foreign policy." Political priorities will have to be somewhat subordinated, they claim, to the overriding concern of securing energy supplies. For example: Germany would have to be more flexible in relation toward Russia's foreign policy objectives. It would also have to show more restraint in its foreign policy toward Israel, to avoid alienating Arab oil-producing nations. Unconditional support for Israel and its right to exist is currently a cornerstone of German foreign policy. The relationship with Russia, in particular, is of fundamental importance for German access to oil and gas, the study says. "For Germany, this involves a balancing act between stable and privileged relations with Russia and the sensitivities of (Germany's) eastern neighbors." In other words, Germany, if it wants to guarantee its own energy security, should be accommodating in relation to Moscow's foreign policy objectives, even if it means risking damage to its relations with Poland and other Eastern European states. Peak oil would also have profound consequences for Berlin's posture toward the Middle East, according to the study. "A readjustment of Germany's Middle East policy … in favor of more intensive relations with producer countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, which have the largest conventional oil reserves in the region, might put a strain on German-Israeli relations, depending on the intensity of the policy change," the authors write. When contacted by SPIEGEL ONLINE, the Defense Ministry declined to comment on the study.

An interesting explanation on Kondratyev, Long Wave, Theory and how it might apply to our present economic circumstances. (see : http://www.kondratyev.com/reference/theory_explained.htm) According to article, "Generally, the secondary depression entails a three year collapse, followed by a 15 year deflationary work out period. The deflation can best be seen in interest rates and wages that have shown a historic alignment with the timing of the Long Wave - peaking with and bottoming at the extremes. Kondratyev viewed depressions as cleansing periods that allowed the economy to readjust from the previous excesses and begin a base for future growth. The characteristic of fulfilling the the expectations of the previous period of growth is realized within the Secondary Depression or Down Grade. This is a period of incremental innovation where technologies of the past period of growth are refined, made cheaper and more widely distributed. Incremental innovation consolidates industries." Perhaps we need to be in this for the long haul and prepare for falling asset prices and low output until a new innovative technology class is introduced to spur economic growth again. I think new technologies of 21st century will focus on 'green energy' production and electrification of transport systems, etc. Sure such innovation in power generation will regenerate many old industrial areas of UK in producing and assembling wind turbines, tidal power stations, etc. Then electrification of towns, cities, etc. Article is reproduced below: Nikolai Dmyitriyevich Kondratyev (1892 - 1938) Who Was Kondratyev? To introduce the Kondratyev Theory, we must go back over seventy years and examine a remarkable story in economic history, encompassed within the life of one still little known man. I am certain that, in time, Kondratyev will rank with the giants of discovery as Einstein, Newton and Keynes. Like these men, his insights have begun to alter radically and permanently our perceptions of economic history. Professor Nikolai Dmyitriyevich Kondratyev ( or, "Kondratieff", pronounced "Kon-DRA-tee-eff") was a Russian economist of the early 1900's and a pioneer of dynamic economic theory. Having almost a free hand for research Kondratyev produced ground breaking theories interrelating economics and politics, taking into consideration such events as war, discoveries, public opinion, and weather as integral parts of a long-term economic life-cycle. Within a market system, Kondratyev proposed economic trends tend to generate harmonics with a periodicity of approximately 53 years. These harmonics are systemic. Kondratyev's works were first translated into English in the early 1930's when it was discovered that he had accurately predicted not only the thirties depression, but also the speculative orgy that preceded it. During the 1930s considerable research was done on business cycle theory, culminating in Joseph Schumpeter's extensive two volume work on the subject. Later, with the advent of Keynesian simulative polices and their progressive effect on the economy, Kondratyev's ideas as well as business cycle theory slipped back into obscurity. Not until the early 1970's, when growth faltered and simulative monetary policies began to produce inflation similar to that of the 1920's, were his ideas rediscovered. Not only were Kondratyev's theories valid, but they actually predicted the course of today's economy -- 60 years in advance. The Measurement of Change Human affairs are rarely admitted into general discussion of economic theory. Kondratyev acknowledged public reaction as directly influential to the ebb and flow of prosperity, and therefore as vital to the economy. He viewed rational public response as tides of change, with its measurement and its effect on the future forming the basis of his Wave Theory. Kondratyev believed that people act differently over time in a continuing repetitive pattern. By combining environmental and demographic factors with the cumulative body of human knowledge, his theories refute mere historical repetition, but offer each era as unique. The Kondratyev Wave Theory consolidates seemingly random events, coherently and predictably. Accumulation and Consumption U. S. wholesale prices dating back to 1800 show several periods of accumulation followed by periods of over consumption. Because these periods are statistically difficult to measure our outline follows historical events, pinpointing major changes in trend. During periods of relatively cheap prices, assets accumulate. As prices increase, the consumption of assets are necessary to maintain a standard of living. When new production fails to keep up with consumption, due to relatively high prices, the economy begins to decline to another period of cheap prices, and a new growth cycle begins. Determination of mood A Kondratyev cycle consists of four distinct phases, or distinguishable, dramatic mood changes, the tone of which determines the actions of individuals involved in the economy. The awareness of these characteristics allows for the anticipation of the change in the economy and the psychological mood that will prevail. The Growth Phase A common premise among business cycle economists supposes inflation as an inevitable part of growth. Government becomes a passive participant in the inflation cycle. Growth begins from a depressed economic base and expands in an ever-increasing spiral. The interaction of the participants within the economy causes wealth, as represented by savings, and the production of capital equipment to be accumulated for the future. The expansion of production and affluence causes prices to rise, and the increased volume of goods requires a higher velocity of money, thus creating a higher price structure. Historically, the growth phase requires 25 years to complete. During this time, unemployment falls, wages and productivity rise and prices remain relatively stable. The mood of the growth phase is one of accumulation and the desire for new product manufacture. Accompanying growth is a shift in social demands. As wealth is accumulated and new innovation introduced great upheavals and displacements take place. The process of social unrest builds with growth culminating in massive shifts in the way work is defined and the role of the participants in society. Primary Recession Eventually, the continuation of exponential growth reaches its limits. Excess capital produces a shortage of key resources and the economy enters a period where growth creates a shortage of resources. An economy will only support expansion to the limits of its resources, both human and material. The mood of affluence also brings a change in attitude towards work. As an economy gets closer to its limits inefficiencies build up The imbalances of this period have been historically exaggerated by what can be labeled a "peak war". Examples such as War of 1812, the Civil War, World War I and Vietnam, came at the end of a very affluent period. These Wars produce strains on the economy increasing the impact of inflation. A dramatic drop in output, rapid rise in unemployment and unusually severe recession characterize this period. Although this primary recession is short lived lasting only three to five years, it is key in altering perceptions and the structure of the economy. No longer does excess create an abundance. The "Limits to Growth" now define a maximum level of economic activity that traps the economy into consolidation and tight bounds for the next 20-25 years. With the change comes a conservative shift in the popular mood reinforcing the limits.. Plateau Period The primary recession occurs out of an imbalance forced upon the economy by real limitations. The rapid rise in prices and changes in production correct this imbalance -- at least temporarily. The change in price structure, along with the mood of a population used to consumption accompanied by the vast accumulation of wealth from the past 30 years, causes the economy to enter a period of relatively flat growth and mild prosperity. Due to structural changes and the limits of the existing paradigm the economy becomes consumption oriented. Excesses of an unpopular war, along with fiscal liberalism, cause popular reaction toward stability or normalcy. A mood of isolationism permeates . The plateau period generally lasts seven to ten years and is characterized by selective industry growth, development of new ideas ( both technological and social ) and a strong feelings of affluence, terminating in a feeling of euphoria. The inflated price structure from the primary recession, along with the desire for consumption, produces a rapid increase in debt. Eventually, wealth consumption expands beyond all practical limits, and economy slips into a severe and protracted depression. Secondary Depression Excesses of the plateau period effect a collapse of the price structure. This exhaustion of accumulated wealth forces the economy into a period of sharp retrenchment. Generally, the secondary depression entails a three year collapse, followed by a 15 year deflationary work out period. The deflation can best be seen in interest rates and wages that have shown a historic alignment with the timing of the Long Wave - peaking with and bottoming at the extremes. Kondratyev viewed depressions as cleansing periods that allowed the economy to readjust from the previous excesses and begin a base for future growth. The characteristic of fulfilling the the expectations of the previous period of growth is realized within the Secondary Depression or Down Grade. This is a period of incremental innovation where technologies of the past period of growth are refined, made cheaper and more widely distributed. Incremental innovation consolidates industries. As increment innovation narrows profits and increases The Down Grade sees one final period of recession before transitioning to a new period of growth. The final recession is mild with very low inflation and appears far more severe than it will be remembered for later in the Growth Cycle. Within the Down Grade is a consolidation of social values or goals. Ideas and concepts introduced in the preceding period of growth while radical sounding at the time become integrated into the fabric of society. Often these social changes are supported by shifts in technology. The period of incremental innovation provides the framework for social integration. It is important to realize the Long Wave as global. While global issues are of prime importance today with increased air travel and communication, the Long Wave defines a time table for geo political events. The Growth Period is one of political stability. Staring a the peak old alliances become challenged. Through the process of the Down Grade old alliances fail and new alliances are formed. The final stages of the Down Grade is a period of coalescing or "quickening" of the alliances that will govern the next period of growth. Summary Probably Kondratyev's greatest contribution to the science of investment is not his observation the world economy operates in long cycles. Cycles would suggest a repetitive nature to events. While the underlying economic conditions will repeat over time due just to the physical nature of our world, our reactions will always be tempered by knowledge and experience. The history of man has been one long climb higher. Kondratyev recognized progress as the irreversible trend. Imposed upon our progressive nature are the physical limits of life. It is the interaction of these physical limits with our dreams and aspirations that creates the constant push pull of the economy known as the Long Wave.

Interesting Times article on how Greeks are coping with double dip -www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article7129624.ece Greek minister Angela Gerekou quits over husband’s £4.7m tax bill As Greece took stock of its budget catastrophe, its glamorous deputy tourism minister – once a model for Playboy – promised that she, like everyone else, could live a life of austerity. “The measures are painful for everyone,” said Angela Gerekou, a protégée of the Prime Minister George Papandreou, in March. But now she has been forced to resign as her husband, one of Greece’s best-known nightclub singers, faces criminal prosecution over €5.5 million (£4.7 million) of unpaid taxes. Tolis Voskopoulos, 70, who has starred in films including My Brothers, Footloose Tramps and Marijuana Stop!, was exposed by a daily newspaper this week as owing the huge sum in taxes and fines. It is the latest embarrassment for a Government that swept to power in October last year promising to clean up the corruption that has helped to take Greece to the verge of bankruptcy. Mr Voskopoulos and Ms Gerekou, 51, had filed joint tax declarations for many years, but a government statement on her resignation said that Ms Gerekou claimed to have no knowledge of her husband’s tax affairs. “Angela Gerekou submitted her resignation out of sensitivity and to avoid causing any damage to the Government,” the statement said. Last week the Greek Government launched a high-profile campaign against what the Prime Minister called “a culture of tax evasion”. It published the names of 60 doctors and dentists who faced legal action for under-reporting their incomes, and said it would use satellite photos to locate swimming pools that could be a sign of undeclared wealth. “This idea that you’re a successful tough guy if you evade taxes and deceive the state has got to change,” Mr Papandreou said last week. Ms Gerekou had initially refused to comment on revelations of her husband’s tax status in the liberal daily newspaper Eleftherotypia, and a government spokesman claimed yesterday that it was a private matter. However, the Finance Ministry has now taken up the case, freezing Mr Voskopoulos’s real estate assets and investigating with a view to a criminal prosecution. “Measures taken to collect this big amount have obviously not been sufficient,” the ministry said. Mr Voskopoulos had a series of hits in the 1960s and 1970s, most famously the 1969 song Agony. He lives with Ms Gerekouin Corfu, where he frequently gives charity concerts. Greece receives the first slice of its €110 billion rescue package later today, just in time to prevent it defaulting on its debts. The country’s budget crisis forced other eurozone countries and the International Monetary Fund to step in and create the bailout package. In exchange, the Greek Government has promised to cut salaries and pensions, raise consumer taxes, and crack down on tax evasion and corruption. Protests over the austerity measures turned to violent rioting earlier this month, and on May 3 three people died in a fire at a bank that had been firebombed by protesters. Ms Gerekou is the second member of Mr Papandreou’s cabinet to be forced to quit. In December, the deputy interior minister stepped down amid claims that he had tried to secure favours for army and police officers. On the Troktiko blog, one contributor wrote: “Shame, shame, shame. I asked the tax office for a week to pay my dues and it said no, but they got off the hook for 17 years. The rest of us are all idiots.”

Yes - well said. Saudi Arabia is set to cease grain production by 2016 due to water shortages. Note the article was written back in 2008 ! see : www.celsias.com/article/water-shortages-cause-saudis-to-cease-grain-produc/ I guess we are living in an age of scarcity.

Yes I guess so ! MoneyWeek had an article on it Sept 07 so has been on people's minds long time now! www.moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/are-we-heading-for-peak-food.aspx

Place your bets folks, are we heading for Inflation, Deflation, or Stagflation ??? Can you extrapolate any Possible Macro Environmental Factors (such as; Social, Legal, Economic, Political, Technological events) to forecast what 2015 is going to be like for us in UK, Europe, US, Asia ??? Who is going to come out on top ???? Doomsday Scenario: Food Prices to Shoot Through the Roof - Pravda 30/08/2010 http://english.pravda.ru/world/americas/30-08-2010/114809-doomsday_food_prices-0 The worst weather on record coupled with the practice of speculation in the commodities markets are set to send food prices skyrocketing, bringing misery and starvation to large swathes of the world’s population. Are we set to see food riots this winter? In the USA, Walmart has already announced a price hike of 5.8% on average for a 31-item basic basket for this Autumn. The long-term rise, however, is far more frightening, with the UNO predicting an increase of 60 per cent by 2030. What is happening? When there is a massive price spike, such as the case in recent years, followed by more price rises (as is the case today) the markets panic and speculative buying sends the prices through the roof. The market economy system is indeed not all about supply and demand but is also, and fundamentally, fuelled by speculative trading, with spot buyers buying future positions of commodities. When they are scarce, and the more so when the market senses that a scarcity exists, the price goes up. This is what is happening today. September corn is up by 3.6% a bushel, wheat by 34 cents. In July the price of wheat shot up by the highest quantity in the last 50 years: 42 per cent. This in turn will push up prices of pasta, bread and cereals in the near future. Prices set to rise for 12 to 18 months Analysts predict upward trends in wheat, corn, soybeans, bean oil and bean meal and the general feeling is a continued rising trend over the next 12 to 18 months. As usual, no mechanisms have been activated to protect the world’s poorer populations from the dramatic effects of supply issues and the resulting speculation in prices. Global production downturn Russia reports a drop in production of around 20 per cent due to dry weather conditions. Drought has also affected Ukraine (where maximum production is set to reach just 66% of domestic demand) and Kazakhstan, while floods have affected 13 million acres of cereals in Canada and have wiped out a large part of China’s harvest. Germany’s wheat production is ten to twenty per cent down on 2009; in Argentina dry conditions mean that only 80% of the arable land for cereals has been planted. The S word: Speculation In today’s market economy system, what drives the prices is not only supply and demand but also the S word: Speculation, where a handful of players push prices sky high and way beyond the reaches of the pockets of the average consumer. If the system were based upon supply and demand then the price of soybean would be bearish (top-down attack, falling), because the main producers (Brazil, Argentina and the USA), have had a good harvest. Then why is the price of soybean bullish (bottom-up attack, rising)? Because cash premiums are forcing the soybean futures rates higher as a process of over-consumption of soybean is noticed in the marketplace (soybean is present these days in most foodstuffs and other consumable items). So much so, that the price of soybean would have to rise a further 50 to 80% to curb the current demand. And it makes sense for this to happen…and that is going to affect the price of everything we eat. Couple this with the rising cost of transportation (crude and natural gas prices are set to rise from September) and we see our comfortable little monetarist-oriented market economy system has engendered another fine crisis looming on the horizon. Watch this space. Vast swathes of the planet are set to go hungry. Those who were previously hungry may starve. It is the Doomsday Scenario and it is upon us. And it is caused not by the lack of supply or scarcity of abundance. It is caused by this manic, inhumane system, the S-word, Speculation. Timothy BANCROFT-HINCHEY PRAVDA.Ru

Land, Labour, Capital, and ENTERPRISE - that's all you need to create a successful Nation ! As to Consumption - then 'Rational Economic Man' died in the 1950's to be replaced by a Consumption Based ethos drived by people's latent desires; Experiential Consumption, Hedonic Consumption, and Conspicuous Consumption. Hence, we all became actors on the stage of life, using consumption as a prop (means) of expressing ourselves. Unfortunately, all our desires are insatiable due to constant media stimulation - what a paradox; an illusion of happiness sustained by consumption which is now finite. I guess at some future point historians will look back on this period and contrast if the virtues of Production vs Consumption were better in order to build a viable Nation. Which would win out - what is the panacea -??

IYes, I guess governments in US/EU will need to come to grips with their soverign debt issues by; 1. Increasing taxation & cutting public expenditure 2. debase currency by QE - hence bring inflation to the equation thus bringing down the debt mountain over time - i.e. inflate it away. End result is less disposable income + drop in living standards & savings wipeout for the prudent ones!!