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About Johnm

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  1. Yes that would be absolutely typical, all part of the pseudo intelligence, a classic case of the look at me, aren't I clever, low self worth inferior man syndrome. The constant spouting, the endless effort to counter the irrelevent, but the total lack of joined up thought or knowledge beyond his tiny world. classic and highly amusing
  2. Hamish, 949 posts......... I'll take that as a yes. Your issues aside, you are indeed amusing. Now, if ask politely, I'll take some time out to answer your oil industry questions, fire away.....
  3. classic Presumably you have size issues Hamish ?
  4. Given, the Hamish posting rate, he is either retired or a, might as well be, local government employee ! The characterisation he has chosen to troll with is however priceless. Hamishs absolute lack of oil industry knowledge is very clear, given his confused reiteration of the blindingly obvious yet he attacks with sarcasm, denies fact and challenges the obvious with the ferocity and niavity of a five year old. The reality is that Aberdeen and the UK sector are in the near end game, the process will be long and slow but the best that can be expected is to slow the rate for production decline. The projected Capex spends over the next few years can only accerate the the provinces and cities decline. It must be very galling for him to have missed the boat, to sit on the outside looking in without a clue what he is looking at. Hamish, I am happy to provide englightenment, you only have to ask politely
  5. Hello Hamish, Thanks for taking the time to deliver your insight, very much appreciated, poorly reasoned, uninformed or perhaps just niave but amusing in its almost child like simplicity all the same. Yes Hamish, I would like fries with that
  6. Hello, Having been following the uninformed Aberdeen debate with amusement, I thought an update on the current situation in the North Sea might be of interest to Hamish, who I understand from previous posts may work in fast food ?? There were 108 exploration and appraisal wells drilled in 2008, 119 wells were planned this year, unfortunately the latest survey revises this down wards to 77 of which only 34 have firm schedule slots. UK Continental Shelf Capital spend and projections, 2006 GBP 5.6 bn (Peak - note pre-oil price spike) 2008 GBP 5.0 bn 2009 GBP 3.4-4.5 bn (Could be revised downwards) 2010 GBP 2.5 bn (??) Interesting projection when you consider it has been estimated that Capex of around GBP 5 bn is needed to limit the UK sectors production decline to 4 to 5 % annually. A couple of anacdotals, Ten percent was the norm but Shell cut contractor rates by 12.5 % last Monday. Invergordon port authority apparently reports cold stacking enquiries ! Still think Aberdeen will be untouched and that 90k Torry studio is a bargain.............even 20 % QE inflation will not cancel the storm brewing.
  7. Hello again Guys, I honestly don't believe that there will be much immediate damage to Aberdeen if the oil price firms over the next few months, sure the confidence has gone, people have had a reality check but we all need a roof over our heads. Those that need to sell, will, there will be a couple of bargains and as a result the overall market will basically stagnate. The availability of cheap credit wasn't just a domestic/housing issue and contrary to the many postings, the oil supply chain is under enormous strain at the moment. Costs rose on the back of the shortage of resources, a very good example is rig rates from 200k usd to over 400k last year, this is one of the main reason ex-Oilco could not roll over their debt, no one could risk re-financing them with the huge liability they were saddled for the 712. For rig rates, read steel price, valve, cranes, lorries, labourers, engineers, every cost ballooned and a major correction is underway however it has only just began. If the oil price remains sub 50 over the summer, we are in for a mid-80's crash from the subsequent cost cutting. The reason, we are in the phoney war at the moment, costs are being squeezed but contact's have to be honoured, they are currently cutting fat but the meat remains. The major item lead times in the North Sea are typically in the order 9 to 18 months, therefore the industry is currently existing on pre-committed budgets and contracts from last year at the markets peak. The borrowings of contractors and small independent oil companies was incurred and fixed on the upside, for some (more than generally believed) the costs will be unsupportable in a low expenditure era. If the price remains in the mid-40's, it is almost certain that the demand/supply balance will inverse dramatically when renewal options are not taken up and the contractors race their prices down. To say that Aberdeen will continue as now, with only a minor shrug off blip and a swift return to a pre-oil economy with "average" incomes is absolute nonsense. Aberdonians on "average" wages, who highly geared to get on the property ladder will feel the greatest squeeze as oil "costs" correct and the impact on Aberdeen will be immediate and devastating, the Porsche/Merc dealerships and expensive restaurants may be first but the trickle down tap will be closing for everyone over a few months. As a previous poster correctly stated oil may be 14 % of the local employment but its indirectly responsible for 80% of the spend. High cost/mature areas are the worst hit when the oil company axe falls, however you are not going to invest in the North Sea when you can have twice the return in West Africa or 3 times in the Middle East, political stability....given the last days of a desparate Labour Government and an inept PM, I'd say there was no advantage for the UK. So my guess for Aberdeen, stagnation and a slow decline if the oil price is demand driven (which I believe is unlikely given the apparent state of the global economy) or 86 all over again if OPEC don't/can't (likely) stabilise the price. Speculators can only fill so many supertankers before .......price reality strikes.
  8. Hello Guys, After a few weeks lurking I thought I could add a few thoughts, The volume of posts is impressive, theres a few of you that must be either retired or local government employees given the 24/7 posting. My thoughts, The stated Aberdeen income averages are invalid due to the heavy skew from a small percentage of very high earners in the oil industry. The majority of Aberdonians work for UK average wages many on national pay scales and have therefore been priced out by those working in the oil industry, I guess this is the main cause of the apparent bitterness towards "oilies". The average wages in the oil industry are far higher than the stated 36, I'd guess 50+ would be nearer the mark, with a significant minority 75+. Not with standing the denials on here, 100+ is not that uncommon. The overall Aberdeen economy depends on the level of confidence within the oil community as it these individuals that spend, hence the high cost of living. Aberdonians on "average" wages are effectively struggling to keep up with the costs of living here, they may be more numerous but have less to spend. The reasons the good restaurants are expensive is the ability of the significant oil minority to pay, the owners aren't interested in targeting the poorer average. In addition to the recession just beginning, Aberdeen faces two significant threats, high gearing within the oil industry overall during the credit bubble and a low oil price. The oil industry is going though a step change at the moment, if the oil price rises and stays above 60/70 bucks, Aberdeen will survive with very little impact, there will certainly be no massive house price crash, individuals will just sit it out, however if the price remains at the current level over the summer, the axe will fall heavily on the town. Once the oil industry professionals start to move on (Houston, Perth, KL.........) and are no longer buying here, when the prices start tumbling, whats going to happen to the highly geared Aberdonians who had to borrow heavily and beyond their "average" means to compete for homes over the last few years ? Proper --cked ! Aberdeens very sucess has driven up all costs while the maturity of the province reduces the net return. No Opco will invest in the present climate. Agreed, major projects are being deferred, however many have also been cancelled. Day rate personnel are taking big pay cuts and there will be more anounced over the coming weeks as the slower Companies see the opportunity. On the contracting side, cheap credit has resulted in massive investment, new semis, jack ups, diving and ROV boats, pipelay vessels, fabrication facilities, office buildings, even cranage all of which have effectively driven up costs through competition for resouces, much of the cheap credit bubble debt will need to be rolled over and the ex-oilco experience may well become an industry norm ! Many of these new builds/assets will be coming onto the market without contracts which can only drive day rates down.....all in its not a great outlook for Aberdeen.
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