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House Price Crash Forum


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About Glenbo

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  1. Could I just point out that in the last crash in the housing market , there were 22 monthly rises reported between 1989 and 1995 but in that time houses fell an average of 35% from peak to trough. Just like any large financial market there are differing views on forward movement of price which means there are people that buy or sell too soon, or too late, and those views can drive upward movement in a bear market as well as downward movement in a bull market. Ordinarily though people are left to either benefit or lose depending on the correctness of their decisions. What makes the current situation so unfair is that people who have made from the market over the last few years are allowed to keep the profit but those who weren't as savvy are being bailed out at the expense of the cautious.
  2. I wouldn't bank on interest rates only going up to 3 or 4%, better to get as long a term fixed rate mortgage as possible, because once the inflation genie is out of the bottle no amount of complaining will prevent rates going to a level dictated by the market. Given the weaknes of the economy and a likely collapse in the pound when foreign investor realise the huge debt problems facing the Uk it will lead to extreme levels of inflation, particularly taking account of the fact that all the must have things, such as oil,gas,grain,soya etc are priced in dollars.
  3. The rises in house prices of higher value were pretty much in line with those of lesser value, so why should the falls be any different?
  4. Factoring in future rises is exactly what people have been doing, which accounts for the massive speculation brought about by people who believed that prices couldn't fall.
  5. I think your point is valid and the accusations of manipulation shouldn't be limited to just EA's. The large builders are offering to allow people to buy 75% of a house now and the balance in ten years, with the current price not having been reduced from 2007 levels, which means any body daft enough to fall for this "deal" is locked in to large losses from day one. There are other schemes offering various degrees of shared ownership that also lock people in to what will certainly turn out to be atrocious deals. These are the people that will be screaming for bail outs in the years to come, claiming they were duped, but in reality are just stupid. Then of course there is the Vested Interest element, the biggest one being the people handing out the bail out money to save the housing market [The Government] who I would like to bet that to a man, or woman, are multiple home owners and are willing to throw hundreds of billions of our money at the problem to save them from losing equity. :angry:
  6. I think there are several bubbles already in the wings, 2 of which are US treasuries and Public Sector debt, especially pension liabilities. This applies to the US as well as the UK.
  7. Nonsense, There have been 5 corrections in the past 60 years, but this one will be by far the worst.
  8. The CEO of Rightmove was interviewed on CNBC when they announced that property prices had fallen by 7.3%. The interviewer said this is much lower than other surveys are showing, and asked if this means that the situation isn't as bad as we ars lead to believe. Miles Shipside [The Rightmove CEO] responded by saying that their survey only relates to asking prices on the site, he then added that the estate agents they speak to are telling them that to get deals done they are having to reduce by between 20% and 25%, so the only thing not keeping pace with the price falls are seller expectatons. You should also remember that vested interest always has a higher platform so the truth will inevitably come slowly to light. After all the government is filled with people who own multiple houses which is why they are so willing to throw billions of pounds of our money at the problem to stem the falls, which they see no reason to do,for instance, with pensions, because they believe their own are secure.In short house price falls will continue for years, not months, in spite of all the efforts to prevent this, in fact the interference will make it worse.
  9. I don't think you will get a reasonable response, you are just ignorant if you don't share carsellers view. Sounds to me like an estate agent or some other VI.
  10. Nobody ever mentions the massive pent up demand for sales from all the people that are waiting for this guaranteed recovery, or the fact that affordability is the main driver for any asset in which there is a market. If inflation gets into the system from the stimulus packages interest rates will very quickly rise making houses unaffordable in no time even for those offered mortgages. Any recovery in the near term would be contingent on free flowing credit returning and that is extremely unlikely. If, on the other hand deflation gets into the system then house prices could keep falling for years and would become a toxic asset for large sections of the population.
  11. When the realisation dawns on people, mainly in the foreign investment community, that UK banks have total liabilities of £7 trillion and have so far written off £64 billion, or less than one percent, and will have to be nationalised which leaves the debt at about 5 times our GDP on the national balance sheet along with the existing debt I think the fall you have seen so far in the pound could turn out to have been a precurser to the main event.
  12. The sacked public sector workers could apply for jobs in the new industries set up by the enormous savings made by not paying bloated wages. There is no net benefit to the economy from these people because the money they spend is money taken off tax payers and the tax they pay is merely recycled from a private sector worker who has paid it before. They then retire before the rest of us and receive a large pension which leaves a vacancy to be filled and we then have to pay 2 wages effectively for the same position. My opinion is that the public sector, and particularly the pension fund, which is in colossal deficit and unfunded is at some point going to prove to be the biggest bubble of all and will burst as all bubbles do. :angry:
  13. Wouldn't the landlords mortgage still be £850 pm if the flat remains empty, meaning that he would be losing the full amount rather than having it reduced by whatever he can get, as opposed to what he wants. Those days are gone.
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