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House Price Crash Forum


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  1. Sorry if posted before - but this is funny and sad - from the property pin Fake Queue at Belfast EA http://www.thepropertypin.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=22552
  2. Maybe but I would be surprised. The first step in the coming crash will be a crash in rents. I am looking at a place to rent and I cannot believe the great supply - houses to rent for asking 2000 on the best street in edinburgh- madness... Now I may be tempted to buy when the rental yields approach 8% but the rental value in edinburgh is amazing and will only get better....
  3. 2434 Now! Up Up and Away.... I may have to change my prediction...
  4. Anyone noticed that the number of properties to let on CityLets has taken off. I predict we will exceed 3,000 lets in Edinburgh on: April 17th at 2 pm GMT
  5. I really think that we are far from having major price falls. There will be few price falls until we have some triggering events. We need to see two things happen - job losses and oversupply in the rental market. I think that we have reached oversupply in the rental market since there are a swathe of properties to let (on CityLets) and are available NOW. The other shoe to drop is job losses and BTL panic. When these sellers no longer can 'just let it out' then we will get market clearing prices. I have had front row seats at three property crashes (London 88, California 2007 and Dublin 2008) and they all are similar. Seller need to get to the fear stage and they are far from it in Edinburgh. So expect 2009 to be a nin-nil draw but mid/late 2010 expect significant price falls. Edinburgh prices are about 50% over valued based on rental yields and sellers are going to revisit some fundamental laws of economic gravity. Here Rent for 1975 pm http://www.citylets.co.uk/aspx/details.asp...183&footer= or Buy for 695K http://www.espc.co.uk/Buying/269936.html That is a 351 ratio of Buy/Rent. The normal ratio is 150. This house is worth 300K tops
  6. To understand what will happen in Edinburgh let's use Dublin as a parallel. Summer 2006 was probably the peak. Look at the graphs of price falls here... http://www.treesdontgrowtothesky.com/ i.e. two and a half years in prices are tumbling -- however house price on the way down are sticky and you can see this in the graphs - we are now reaching the start of the capitulation stage. house prices are off 30-50% in leafy south dublin 4.. Where will we end up. One Prof Kelly from has predicted 80% falls here http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/01/14...ds-doctor-doom/ he is a little hard to discredit since he predicted all this 4 years ago and he has been on the money so far. He said on national TV that a house in south dublin for 800K could be worth 200K in a few years. That created a lot of colonic irrigation amongst the hoi polloi So what will happen in Edinburgh - expect a deluge of EA speak about soft landing etc. 'spring selling seasing' 'house price inflation easing' etc... so... Hold The Line!
  7. Patience my grasshoppers. I have witnessed the ongoing property crash in Dublin – It takes time to play out. Edinburgh is still in the denial stage. It will play out EXACTLY the same as Dublin but is about 2 years behind. Dublin has reached the fear stage. Have a look here: http://www.thepropertypin.com/latest.php Prediction - not much reduction in 2009 as sellers hold out for what it's worth. 2010 - fear stalks the land. The rental yield multipliers in Edinburgh make no sense
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