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  1. I would have thought anything like 80% of the population going about their daily lives in much the same way as normal would be more than enough to keep the country afloat...?
  2. Tend to agree. A lot of people I know have come close to losing jobs (in the city) but none have ....as yet. Imo businesses became bloated in the boom years and from what I can see are generally only stripping deadwood. With companies now running more efficiently and unemployment barely much above a normal level (no offence intended to anyone who is unemployed here, a nightmare scenario I can imagine) then the prospects do not look bad at all for the recovery. We may not be at the bottom yet but as Pond says, for the majority of us it will scarcely be noticeable (Imo).
  3. I should mention that I am somewhat in the Sibley camp from what I read on here. Just thought I would add a real world experience from south west london this week: Just 3 days after this news about the 1.9% rise I got approached by a buy to let investor interested in viewing a flat I had on the market last year. The first enquiry for 9 months... Whether or not this is a rogue statistic flying in the face of the trend it seems sure to push a few more people back into the market which can only serve to soften the landing of the falls somewhat.
  4. I'm sure we can all agree that good advice to anyone wanting to buy a house would be not to buy at the peak... but in just the same way as the actual peak is hard to predict the bottom is just as difficult. Living in rented accomodation for the long term will suit some and not others, I'm sure we can agree on that. People on here arguing that people should not buy houses and those that do are all doomed are most likely renters who need to justify their financial decisions to themselves, agreed? People on here stating the market is due to pick up at some point are most likely thinking about buying (/have just bought) and will make money over the next decade or so on that investment, then either cash in or lose it all back in the cycle, agreed? We may just have to agree to disagree on the extent and duration of the fall and see how it pans out. Good luck to all whatever your plans.
  5. I think it's fair to assume that credit will become more widely available again at some point... mortgages are still attractive propositions for banks are they not? The sensible thing may be to sit on your hands but as soon as people have access to the cash to get themselves a better life they will take it.
  6. all I'm doing is pointing out how I believe the general public think and act which in turn affects the market.... not whether they are right or wrong in their actions. Wanting a bargain, being impatient and wanting to keep up with the joneses is part of my point, thanks
  7. Just to elaborate on my earlier point... lets follow your thinking that the bottom of this contraction period is 2 years away, I think it is safe to assume the falls will slow nearing the bottom? If you can currently get 15% plus off asking prices that have already been dropped to account for the market conditions then you are not by any means going to be in trouble. The majority of people looking at buying are in it for the long haul, are they not?
  8. "a few months ago"... leads me to an obvious question. Why are there not more recent predictions from these notable economists? A quick glance at the table on the homepage and it's crying out for some revised opinions surely? "you're just in the denial stage. it'll get much much worse and you'll be despondent and depressed before the decade is out." thanks for the warning Si1... unless I'm wrong though the decade will be out within a year... thats not long in my view
  9. I believe there is a general and widespread belief that renting is 'dead money', regardless of what the reality of the facts and figures may be. In my humble opinion it's just as important to guage the mood of the nation as it is to assess past statistics in these things... i've been asking local estate agents about enquiries recently and they have been swamped. The cult of home in the UK is too firmly entrenched to be wiped out by a period of falling prices. If someone was thinking about buying a year ago and waited to see what happened to the market they will be jumping back in soon along with a new generation of buy-to-lettors and bargain hunters. Those renting a 2 bed flat for £800 a month will soon be rethinking their position when they can get a mortgage for £800 a month on a nice semi. I'm not syaing the falls are over but concede that I am more optimistic about the recovery and how soon that will come around than most.
  10. Personally, I think there is a boat to miss in the housing market... When the bottom is in sight sellers no longer have as much incentive to accept significantly lower offers on their properties. Therefore as the bottom nears I believe there is a reduction in the gap between asking price and price paid. The true bottom will therefore be different for each individual case but for many we may well have already passed it (those who are currently getting very low offers accepted). Shortage of housing stock and pent up demand could mean there is in fact a bounce rather than a protracted bottom to this fall particularly when credit restrictions are eased and people once again join the national obsession of getting on the housing ladder
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