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House Price Crash Forum


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About tkane

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  1. Just in time for the big bonuses to be announced in the next 2 weeks!
  2. It won't happen, and deep down, behind all that denial, you know it too.
  3. You are not the entire public. Some people want cheaper houses so they can get on the ladder whilst most want to keep their house prices high for obvious reasons. For the record, I do want lower prices, but I am of the view that there is not going to be a quick nominal crash and everyone (I mean the country, not just HPC) shoudl just accept this. I don't like the current scenario where everyone is dithering with sellers not advertising their houses, buyers lacking confidence to buy, housebuilders lacking confidence to build. The housing market has just ground to a halt and it is stopping the free movement of labour and affecting the construction industry. This is NOT what we want. It would be nice to have the crash, but it won't happen, IMO.
  4. I agree that over time this MAY be a consequence of the scheme, however, for the third time, with the backdrop that we have no one is going to outbidding a fellow FTB just because they can get their hands on a 95% LTV mortgage. Your original point seemed to suggest that as a direct result of this scheme there would be an instant bidding war for FTB housing - this simply isn't going to happen with confidence in the economy as it is. Maybe over a period of 5-10 years this scheme will indeed have had an implact, but it will likely be small compared to plethora of factors which determine house prices.
  5. I didn't know house purchases were carried out using a bidding system. I thought someone put up a house for sale through an estate agent who then invites potential buyers (not bidders) to view the house and make an offer if they are interested. The vendor then either accepts the offer or refuses it. At this point, there may or may not be another buyer interested, but in most cases there is not.
  6. Or they pay the same price a potential BTL landlord would have paid? Is that not feasible. As I said, with the backdrop that we have...prices are not going to rise based on this scheme. It will simply facilitate a few sales which would otherwise have been recorded as BTL purchases.
  7. Lenders are not lending because 1) They are being over cautious and 2) They have less funding (Same as why business lending is down) This is precisely why the government and now local councils feel the need to step in as the market has failed.
  8. I doubt councils are going to "borrow" from creditors as they have their own interest free funding from council tax payers. Some councils have huge investment funds as came to light during the Icelandic crisis.
  9. How are prices going to rise based on 1 scheme against a backdrop of rising unemployment and falling demand for goods and services (i.e falling GDP)? You say yourself there won't be any more people housed. EXACTLY! Renters will now be homewoners. I.e less BTL.] I personally think the council is right to be confident about not being exposed to any major losses, as I don't see prices going down 20% nominally over 5 years.
  10. Because they haven't, as per their own calculations: · Property valued at £100k, mortgaged at £95k ...; · If the property was sold for £90k the bank would request £5k from the Council. In this case the value of the property would need to have fallen by 10% from the original valuation.
  11. No they can withstand a 20% fall before the council is on the hook: Over the five year period, the following would need to happen for the costs to the council to exceed the interest income: · Defaults to be ten times higher than the 2010 level indicated by CML; AND · Property prices to drop 10% from the level at the time the mortgage is approved My 20% figure includes the 10% equity.
  12. Well done. This site bangs on about vested interests yet when someone comes along and dares to disagree with the mainstream view then you get called or **** or your posting rights are suspended for hours upon hours.
  13. My 5% figure was wrong I'll admit. I just did some quick calculations comparing interest only and repayment mortgages for a 123k house at 95% LTV. It seems you will gain about 2% equity per annum, which over 5 years is 10%.
  14. Yes, because you all fail to recognise (or choose to ignore) the fact that even if the house price falls there will have been equity built up through monthly mortgage repayments which will be offset against the losses. On a 123k mortgage this can cover a fall of 5% per annum at the very least.
  15. I read, I considered, and I came to the following conclusion: You :0 Council: 1
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