Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Aidan Ap Word

Members
  • Posts

    1,136
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Aidan Ap Word

  1. Caveat: I am new to this thread. But with all the lies that have been in the indexes for years (eg: Countrywide) and the rate at which business models - fraudulent/exploitative, or not - get killed off (eg: Countrywide) or technological innovation or social norm can ham-string industries (thinking: cars) ... and with the forth driving so many of the prices (think: the share issues for Slack) ... It may well be that in the sum of all things the index (or indices) should be "up" in 'real' terms ... but this would only serve to be co-incidence. Or, if you look at it pessimistically, the long term "growth" in the stock markets that underpins/justifies their presence in pension pots is basically just manipulation by washing over real events with printed fiat to cover the backs of TPTB. *slinks off to corner of the room to hide my face in fear and shame for having expressed such counter-social attitude*
  2. True. But the fact that my parents aren't facing getting an S21 *as well* does still benefit me. Especially since if my parents were 60+ years old I would have very good reason to help them move when they get moved on by the PRS landlord.
  3. Committing to anything for a period of 40 years is utter guesswork anyway. And the world is changing even faster now than when these instruments were originally invented.
  4. Was checking the long term share price trend on DB - to check if it looks anything like the UK's Countrywide ... so not in the same way a serious MVA world. Quelle surprise! Still, I loved this: Recruiting new people to liven up a loss-making business line is like painting go-faster stripes on an old banger. It doesn’t make the car go any faster, and the stripes soon lose their luster. All too often, bright stars in a successful business become fading stars when they transfer to a failing one. The traders and analysts recruited at inflated salaries have not brought about the resurrection of the investment bank. They have simply cost it lots of money. Quelle surprise!
  5. Ponzi exactly. But such a big elephant in the room that no-one is prepared to admit it. And if you are a child who has enough backbone to question why the emperor is naked you get ostracised or vilified or basically mocked for being "churlish".
  6. What percentage of the not-online sales are made by which demographics? OK, I confess I am not sure that data is easily found. Ocado - which has no physical store - 1.5bn, a small number, I agree ... Yes, that's just under 10% growth in 5 years - somewhere in the region of 2% per year ... not sure if your numbers were inflation adjusted or not ...? And Tesco's sales (44bn in 2018, so a significant part of your numbers) ... What percentage of Tesco's sales are actually high street sales - even the bricks and mortar ones? And what proportion of those are off-high street mega stores? Yes, and Amazon are losing money hand over fist? Ah, no maybe not. 15.4 million paying subscribers for Prime alone (only a part of their online customer base) ... that's a significant portion of the adult population. And then there is Netflix. And there's a certain car company that - globally - has sold 100s of thousands of cars ... none of them had to be bought whilst sitting in a building owned by some or other pensions company. And then there is the huge number of mobile phones bought on the high street ... ah, wait .. maybe not. And clothes, yes, everyone buys their clothes (very personal things clothes) in a bricks and mortar store on the high street ... which is why M&S are doing so well in their clothing division ... except they are not. And Next has such a huge presence on the high street itself ... except they don't. Next annual report. The number of stores they have has decreased by 5% in a year (a lot faster than the growth of 10% in 5 years) ... and yes, the chairman mixes "bircks and Mortar" stores with "high street" stores ... "Our core strategy remains unchanged; focus on our customers, products and profitability, continuing to build on the capabilities of our brand and Online Platform and returning surplus cash to our shareholders." and Next is a tiny part of the retail industry but they expect their "high street" (bricks and mortar stores mostly in retail parks) to be cash-0 or cash negative within 4 or 5 years.
  7. Opinion expressed by a large personality in the finance space was: The pension companies that have so heavily invested in this income stream cannot let the rents fall on any "asset" because the value of the asset is marked against the rental income. If they take a write down on the rent on a property they have to write down the value of the asset that underpins how they will pay their commitments to the pension holders. Worse: if they open the discussion around the value of an asset in their portfolio then it beings into question the value of all their assets in their portfolio. And prices (and values) are set on the margins. In terms of modern finance it turns out it is alleged that it is turtles all the way up too. Yeah, the finance industry is "real", until of course, it isn't. Edit: Much like housing, really.
  8. And it died because it didn't evolve ... and it couldn't evolve because there were too many leaches sucking the blood out of the high street businesses. The evolution they needed is the ability to respond to the change in the way people spend their discretionary income.Yes ... *yawn* ... I mean online. The relative size of the discretionary income, and the size of the pool of people who have any discretionary income are of limited relevance if all (the majority of) of the spending of discretionary income is going through a totally different channel. From cars to hardware to food to entertainment ... and probably everything in between ... most of it is moving away from the high street for reasons outside of all this money monkey-business leaching ... this leaching means that the high street cannot attract that economic activity back because the leaches have sucked the blood out of the body so much the muscles don't work.
  9. Definition of success is wrong ... perhaps? Perhaps success is marked as getting the lot into the auction room (regardless of whether there is even a bid on it). Or maybe a lot is successful if it attracts a bid ... in which case success is easy. A "friend" of the auctioneer bids unacceptably low on nearly every lot in each auction? OK, so maybe one day 5GBP won't be considered an unacceptably low bid too .. now *that* might be success. Still: "I aint giving it away" ... no?
  10. Hard to have the "balls" to negotiate hard when your family housing is on the line .. but yes! And even more, though, "Tell your landlord that if she/he doesn't pay you the money they should have spent on maintenance (but didn't) then she/he will have to find another tenant" ... maybe?
  11. Absolutely. Except that those who should be lynchees will all have their golden handshakes big enough for them to live on their private guarded estates ... and several other folks will get lynched regardless of whether they were complicit in this charade or not ... and it is that swathe of violence (applied to the (relatively) innocent) that would irreparably damage this country.
  12. Whenever anyone asked me why I voted Leave .. and what my reasons were, my standard response eventually became: I have 1.5 trillion reasons ... now it just seems I will soon have yet more ... All the bull dust around the gazillion other deflections from the most important truths used to make me angry ... now I am just sad ./.. the sheople still can't see what the sheople are not being allowed to see.
  13. Gordon Brown saved the world, remember? Or, more accurately, the Fed/Boe/ECB puppet masters "saved the world". Saved the rich folks in the world - where rich folks are those who won both the birthplace and birth date lotteries. They seem to believe that they can hide their crimes by QE-ing the hell out of everyone's future ... I do hope they are wrong in this. And, importantly, I do hope that the real perpetrators are held accountable ... but if it does turn into a lynch mob then we are all in trouble. Earlier in the thread someone asked "why single out the EU bankers" (as the worst perpetrators????) - they have already given us 1.5 trillion reasons (1 for each Euro) ... and they are planning yet more "aggressive" QE ... singling them out because they are alone (globally speaking) in their threats makes sense to me.
  14. And the money spent on keeping the oil infrastructure stable ... wars are really cheap ... and there is never anything boiling in the middle east ... except the occasional ship load of naphtha - like here.
  15. And nothing has changed. Particularly insulting is the end of the 2010 article closes with "dodgy boilers" and somehow this proved to be true about Judith and her conviction as a tenant abuser.
  16. Emporer buys more clothe from the vendor who sold him his clothes in order to "prove" to the commoners that his clothes are real? And I thought the point of a Ponzi scheme was that the top of the scheme would never be enough to re-float the bottom? Otherwise the Ponzi scheme wouldn't yield much to the those teetering at the top ... The pessimist in me is that he is riding it out as long as he can - and doesn't give a monkey's what the little people are moaning about in the press.
  17. Like what would happen if everyone went into all the retail banks and demanded currency for their salaries in their current accounts ... especially in the days before all their DD-based bill payments went "out"?
  18. Sorry - I misspoke. I meant that - from a previous reading I saw it written somewhere that only 4% of the "cash" (eg: savings and current accounts) in the UK economy is "covered" by minted currency (notes and coins). So if a run on the banks were to happen AND everyone required cash currency for their deposits in instant access accounts then actual printing would have to occur, and perhaps quite quickly. Tho I suspect most runs on the banks would be folks moving to another retail bank and not trying to stash their currency under their mattresses?
  19. And only 4% of the "money" in the UK economy is cash. So if everyone withdrew their "money" from their accounts *as cash* then the mint would have to actually print some more (as opposed to the QE "money printing" of today).
  20. Was the start of the downturn here maybe? Without their bonuses they all stopped paying attention? Or is it the bonuses that was fueling the magic money tree?
  21. Meaning:not cut their debt far enough? Debt holiday coming? Or liquidation? Taking all those valuable (not!) agency businesses with them? In all this I still think there are a fair number of employees who have no idea what they got into when the signed up. How many of them even realise they work for countrywide I wonder?
  22. Al the while someone (some people) are spending big money trying to keep it off the floor: Kiss your 30 grand goodbye time?
  23. Rather harsh, but business is business. I am not sure how any of their EAs would take this up and succeed. The EAs who do take this up would either need to: fail to understand how this sort of franchise agreement would leave them carrying the debt and the obligations in the failing business understand how this would likely end (be it via the mechanics you describe or something similar) and still believe the orderbook they are "buying" is worth the risk Methinks EAs are not the sharpest things in the knife ... um .. the knife .. um ... the thing they keep the knives in. Of course, the CW leadership should either be clued up enough to work mechanics like this or they shouldn't have the jobs they have held for months/years. How bright the CW leadership is ... a separate debate, of course.
  24. A turkey finally admits it is Christmas : https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2019/5/countrywides-biggest-critic-says-heres-my-plan-to-save-the-firm
  25. All good points. But all I meant was that B&Bs share price collapse is nothing next to the share price collapse we see in CW.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.