Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Aidan Ap Word

  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Aidan Ap Word

  1. Personally I would be a bit gutted if the overpriced asset I bought was then devalued by 84% ... but I am just a worker bee. *sigh*
  2. Even if pollution wasn't killing us, and even if it wasn't causing climate change ... still wouldn't be the right thing to do. Government's whole reason for existence is to encourage behaviour (eg: the right thing to do)in those cases where otherwise the market wouldn't drive that behaviour from selfishness. I am the last one to argue for bigger government (quite the opposite) but I am not silly enough to suggest that pollution is irrelevant and/or that pollution is anything other than severely undesirable.
  3. It's hard to rubbish marked differences in death rates, and marked decreases in COPD hospitalisations ... especially when they are specifically traced back to locations of localised relatively higher pollution. Even if "higher" pollution is lower than the pollution levels of the past.
  4. OK, that's a good point. The issue (in terms of affecting housing costs for an area) is as much about the perception of whether it is a pollution hotspot or not. Possibly increased as an effect based on whether or not people's sensitivity to this "issue" is increasing over time. So inner city (eg: London, and all it's buses etc) house prices may be less affected by this as the degree to which people's perception of the pollution concentration changes (expected: for the better as measurable pollution levels fall). But this might mean that living closer to a factory is thus perceived as even more relevant and thus the pollution-relevance-in-housing-choice may be increased even more. Unless factories clean up their pollution act (both physically and in terms of local perception) even more than city streets. Interesting might be the effect (if any) on prices of housing on the edges (just inside and just outside) of the ULEV boundary in London. Bearing in mind that the difference in the pollution amount at the across the length of the street or the neighbourhood might be practically zero. This is ... like all things house prices - is about perception. Not reality. House prices are about perception, and expectation (which is perception of the future of a sorts). Haven't been about fact for years (decades?). And I am not holding out hope that they will return to being (even slightly) about fact for another few decades at least.
  5. General improvements in air quality seem to correlate (and may have a part in the causation of) longevity. There is a subtle point here tho: ***hotspots*** As air quality generally improves so more people will be less and less happy to live where air pollution is concentrated. Regardless of whether the pollution where it is concentrated still means better air quality than decades and centuries ago (or not). Also: https://news.uchicago.edu/story/air-pollution-reduces-global-life-expectancy-nearly-two-years You can try to debunk this research (and it may even overstate things, may even have complete holes in the methodology) .... but it is pretty hard to believe that people would want to live in an area of (relatively) concentrated air pollution/or that the majority of people wouldn't think this was at least relevant in the decisions around where they home. Add in the fact that people are becoming more and more aware of the option of actually having clean air - that this is even more an option. As opposed to: those who are happy to leave their polluting cars spewing rubbish into the air they actively breathe those who don't see that coal fired power stations are a bad thing ... as these people become the minority more and more ... And in terms of asthma (or, more accurately, COPD as a more general category) and pollution the relationship is clearly demonstrated (and has been for several decades).
  6. That's 600k GBP "destroyed" in the last year. Oh the sky is falling on our heads. Except it isn't. Does no one realise that you neighbours know how greedy you are when you price your house like this on RM? OK, sorry. I forgot how many people end up in such "valuable" houses by accident of family as opposed to logic, care, thought or hard work (or any reasonable combination of these).
  7. Someone is crying into their pot noodle today as their hopes for mad gainz evaporate into the history books. The only person happy in this situation is the person who got the huge pile of cash in 2011 when they sold it.
  8. Very glad these things are being debated. How that translates into real action by those who are in place (sometimes elected and in place) to restrict the undesirable side of the private sector's immunity to morality. But I can't get my head around: If the council is cash-strapped where will they find the cash (esp. cash flow) to compensate a lazy developer that is either land-hoarding OR in dereliction of creating crime-inviting monolithic blocks of cement (or both)?
  9. Am I the only one who finds it frustrating that we engineer products and solutions where "educated guessing" is worth less than the paper it is written on ... and yet the accountants reap large rewards from the "leadership" of organisations where all they actually have is educated guessing relative to what is - by the TPTB - little more than an educated guess?
  10. And it is not even a 1 bedroom. It is a studio flat at that. That said: the "authorities" are largely toothless and this sort of abuse is so widespread ... *sigh*.
  11. I still don't understand how the business world is crazy enough to think that a prediction of something at the national and international level that is out beyond 18 months is even relevant.
  12. I have no choice with the people I work with covering 4 (sometimes 5) timezones. Blue Jeans works very very well.
  13. And different width of tracks. Higher centre of gravity for thinner tracks.
  14. Yes. Worked there for several years. And then several years later I lived in Maidenhead. I know "the poem" well. Also: the best thing about Slough is the back of the "Welcome to Slough" sign. Also: I think the Slough prices may include the prices for Farnham Common - which is a very un-Slough experience.- and some of the Farnham Royal prices too (and ti turns out Royal is not as POSH as Common, either - how weird is that?). That and it's proximity to London I think will have driven prices. And, possibly, Slough was a haven (though not heaven) for BTLers. And Slough being the centre-point of the London pinnacle of the M4/M40 corridor. But walking the streets of Slough you would be reminded that Reading is way nicer.
  15. The sure do. I wonder when the fall in Slough prices will reverse (perhaps only after the crash is complete) and then there is a possibility that the falls will have stopped washing through ... ? On the road this is one thing ... but odd that in terms of time-on-train-into-London they are pretty much in equal steps (the Windsor->Slough Train is a twice hourly affair taking approx. 15 mins (includingchange times) ... at least it used to be when I used it.
  16. Local authorities 01/06/2019 01/06/2018 Difference Reading £293,291 £303,127 -3.20% Slough £280,473 £306,234 -8.40% Windsor and Maidenhead £462,748 £495,274 -6.60% But crossrail was going to save the world? And now Slough is cheaper (at least in headline terms) than Reading - despite being "20 mins" from centre of London.
  17. The shadow banking system was created by the banking types because they knew they were going to be bailed out if things went wrong. In other words they weren't behaving as capitalists would ... that is they did not price risk correctly ... or more to the point they priced the risk of all their lies coming to the fore within the knowledge they were too big to fail. That is the derivative market wouldn't have been created if the price of taking part in that market hadn't been fixed. After all, the derivatives market has since disappeared, hasn't it? Ah no ... wait ... it hasn't.
  18. Wage inflation and price inflation have a relationship ... to highlight one without reference (at least) to the other is just sensationalist. I am not saying that price inflation is not exacerbated by devaluation of the currency globally ... there is a link there - this is well established (was even in the basic reading back in the late 1980s and early 1990s - even in far-flung economies right next to the sick joke that is Zimbabwe). But the relationship between local inflation and international devaluation is significantly affected by international relations, and international conditions. But the relationship between local inflation and international devaluation is significantly affected by sentiment generally.
  19. My point being that actions by the state are not efficient in that waste and false accounting (including non-jobs). Carillion is even worse in that it is a "pretend" private company feeding on state projects with state oversight that is a hotbed for extravagant waste and false accounting (not least of which because the government officials in this space do not have skin int he game in exorcising this waste even when they do see it). The free market may indeed be inherently unstable, but we haven't even tried the free market. The bubbles, panics and mania are exacerbated (even caused, in some cases) by the manipulation of the market - which is exactly why it is not a "free" market. HTB is intervention that has exacerbated the housing bubble. Bail outs of the banks re evidence of how manipulated financial services are (where manipulation is by the the big licence holders and the purchasers of political favour (in the US case and Goldman the data is in the public domain, naive to think similar stuff doesn't go on in the UK). HTB causes folks who don't need HTB to enter the market and capture "value" (of a sort) they wouldn't otherwise obtain, all the while limiting the supply of properly-priced housing to others. And then enabling the likes of Persimmon to pay many bonuses in the scale of the 10s of millions of pounds (extravagant enough fro you? And that's just the skimmed-bonuses). And then there is the inherent value destruction of the government-based/sponsored projects that inhibit innovation because of the need to entrench the non-jobs of today. Anyone who thinks the NHS is making good progress around data management and informed healthcare is just plain nuts or extremely uninformed. Or the idea that in education in the UK is all about data, innovation and results-based change and refinement (where the results are real and not just the decades-outdated SATS-based jiggery pokery) is only possible from an uninformed position, too. And, yes, Carillion was building hospitals and schools. The hospitals and schools of the future ... or ... well, maybe not.
  20. Carrillion? Or is it spelled Carrion? You do make a good point that direct government spending certainly does appear to be a simpler way of "printing" money. The (inevitable?) increased misappropriation of funds with increased govt projects is one thing that demonstrates how banana republics work. And the (inevitable?) choice to demonstrate growth by concentrating on non-projects (like deliberately broken windows and other fallacies) is another thing too. The government chasing "productive" opportunities faces the same challenges that the private sector faces when finding opportunities to offload cash into "investment" ... but with political targets to hit and boxes to tick ... things get wasteful fast. And things are only "productive" if the product is what people actually need or want. Like building hospitals full of silo-ed, disconnected, inefficient and data-leaking paper-supported systems where the patients are travelling to and from the hospital with devices with their biometric data (right next to private SPI data) on them ... hoping they won't get lost in the pile of devices that it gets dumped on top of on the insecure desk at the nurse's reception? The National program for IT (npFIT) cost billions and delivered nothing ... for many many reasons ...
  21. My point is based on the idea that if they "print" more and "issue" it to the banks .. the banks have to take it up for this to be meaningful at all. But if they are penalizing the banks for holding "cash" then what banker in their right mind would accept the hot potato? So they can't print more to stimulate the economy because it will simply not be accepted at the first junction on it's route into the "productive" economy. And they can't lower interest rates any further because this is likely to be visible in "day to day"/retail banking ... where this makes even less sense on mortgages and retail banking than it does in terms of bonds and yields ... means headlines about -ve interest rate mortgages ... weird enough that the average person in the street is going to balk at this .. risking again the wool being removed from their eyes and the inevitable no-confidence-left race to the bottom. Or maybe not ...maybe folks in the UK will just start expecting "free" money on all mortgages as well as the mad gainz that are so entrenched ... so much so that the lemmings will all discuss how wonderful the feeling of the wind in their hair is ... even as that "wind" is the rush of the air past their heads as we all fall off the cliff and accelerate to the rocks and ocean below ... maybe that is just a different race to the bottom?
  22. The reserve banks can't issue money to banks who are being penalised for holding it - especially since it takes time to find a productive use for that money - because the banks just won't take it. The reserve banks can't lower interest rates because, in essence interest rates globally are practically 0 (or negative). So they are effectively handcuffed by the side effects of all their meddling? Maybe the whole system has genuinely ground to a halt and we won't be a Lehman Brothers-like incident to kick it all off?
  23. Yes. So prices for homes will not return to '97 multiples of incomes until the price of borrowing returns to something like it was in '97. Except that is never going to happen because the whole vicious ponzi will crash - across all markets we use money for - if that were to happen.
  24. And they can afford to offer that product because they no longer need to carry the data for the mortgage that would be required by an audit? OK, maybe they are still on the rails. ... maybe ...
  25. +1 ... Every other argument is just window dressing or re-arranging the deckchairs.
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.